An upper-level low pressure system continues to push slowly away from the coast and high pressure will build into the region for the weekend. As a result, today will be a bit on the cool side of normal with a slight chance for a PM shower and Saturday is likely to be the nicest day in quite awhile across the Mid-Atlantic region. The weather for Sunday and Monday should feature comfortably warm conditions, but a couple of disturbances can bring scattered showers to the region on both days, maybe even a thunderstorm or two. Showers and thunderstorms are even more likely on Tuesday with the approach of a frontal system and it should turn cooler again by the middle of next week.
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Temperatures will remain below-normal for the next couple of days in the Mid-Atlantic region as an upper-level low slowly pulls away from the Northeast US coastline. Cold air in the upper atmosphere will continue to keep it somewhat unstable around here; consequently, there can be scattered showers both today and on Friday. The weekend is shaping up to be quite nice with quieter and milder conditions as high pressure to the north takes control of the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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An unusually cool air mass remains entrenched in the Mid-Atlantic region and an upper-level low spinning overhead will keep it quite unsettled here at mid-week. With cold air aloft, any daytime heating will quickly result in destabilization of the atmosphere leading to clouds, scattered rain showers and perhaps even a rumble of thunder. The air is cold enough that some higher-elevation spots to our north and west can experience small hail or graupel mixed in with the rain later today and tonight. The weather gets quieter and milder at the end of the week and the weekend is shaping up quite nicely.
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An unusually cool air mass for early May has engulfed much of the northeastern quadrant of the nation and it’ll stick around for a few more days. The Great Lakes, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US will be stuck with well below-normal temperatures through much of the remainder of the week with a deep upper-level low pressure system spinning around overhead. With cold air aloft, any daytime heating early in the day will quickly result in destabilization of the atmosphere leading to clouds and scattered rain showers. The air is cold enough that some higher-elevation interior locations of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US can even experience ice pellets (graupel) and/or snowflakes mixed in with the rain during the next couple of days. The weather gets quieter and milder at the end of the week.
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After back-to-back soaking rain events, the Mid-Atlantic region will experience quite cool and unsettled conditions for much of this week with a daily chance of showers. An upper-level low will spin around the northeastern states in coming days and cold air aloft will result in instability in the atmosphere leading to the daily chance of patchy clouds and showers. The air mass will feature well below-normal temperatures for the early part of May and indeed can be cold enough for a few ice pellets (graupel) to mix in at times across some of the coldest, higher elevation suburbs. Winds will also be quite noticeable during each of the next few days with gusts to 30 mph possible.
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Rain associated with a northeastward moving storm system will spread into the NYC metro region later today and it’ll continue into the day on Saturday. Some of the rain will become heavy at times, watch for localized flooding, and winds will increase in strength from an easterly direction. In fact, at the height of the storm, flooding may become an issue along coastal sections of Long Island and New Jersey given the fact that a stiff east-to-southeast flow of air will continue for a several hour period.
By the time we get to the second half of the weekend, a multitude of upper-level lows will begin to consolidate into one as the northernmost system will become the dominant player and acts to “absorb” the other lows. The end result will be one deep upper-level low by the early part of next week centered over the eastern Great Lakes. At the surface (and very similar to the first system on Friday and Saturday), an initial (primary) low will push towards the Great Lakes and a secondary storm will form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline by late Sunday night/early Monday. As with the first event, this second one will result in soaking rains for the NYC metro region and winds will become quite a noticeable factor as well. An unusually chilly air mass for early May will follow the second storm for the first half of next week and instability showers may take place from time-to-time.
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An active weather pattern will continue across the nation into early May largely fueled by the continuation of cold air outbreaks from Canada into the US. One such cold shot will push east on Thursday from the south-central states into the northern Gulf region and this “clash” between the incoming cold, dry air and the entrenched warm, humid air mass is likely to result in strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity from Texas-to-Florida and perhaps as far north as the Tennessee Valley.
This storm system will push northeast on Friday and a secondary storm will form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline later Friday night. A similar scenario will develop from Sunday into Monday with an initial (primary) low pushing towards the Great Lakes and a secondary storm likely to form near the northeastern US coastline. The end result…back-to-back soaking rain events for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US from Friday into Monday.
Following the passage of the second storm system, very chilly air for early May will flood the northeastern quadrant of the country for the Monday-to-Wednesday time period and the atmosphere will be quite unstable. As a result, there are likely to be some instability rain showers during the first half of next week and snowflakes and/or ice pellets can mix in across some of the higher-elevation, interior locations of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast.
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The weather will improve today with early day clouds and showers giving way to some sunshine…better enjoy it as back-to-back soaking rain events are on the for Friday/Saturday and Sunday/Monday. High pressure will build back into the area today, but its influence will be short-lived. A series of low pressure systems will pass through the area from tomorrow into early next week providing us multiple rounds of rain. In addition to the rain, this wet spell will generally be on the cool side with temperatures below-normal and it’ll be quite windy for much of the time. Unusually cool air for the beginning of May will follow on the heels of the second storm system for the first half of next week.
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An active weather pattern will bring us multiple chances for rain in coming days with the first opportunity coming from today into early tonight as a cool front passes through the region. High pressure will build back into the area on Thursday providing us with decent weather; however, this break in the action will be rather short-lived. Low pressure will bring more rain here later Friday into Saturday and then an even stronger system could result in a soaking rain event from later Sunday into Monday.
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Cold air outbreaks continue to work their way from Canada into the US as we wind down the month of April and it appears they will continue to do so right through the early part of May. As long as this kind of pattern holds, there will be an enhanced threat of severe weather outbreaks in the US and an increased chance for the formation of strong storm systems. In fact, more severe weather is possible on Wednesday in places like Texas and Oklahoma as cold, dry air advances from the west and clashes with entrenched warm, humid air across the south-central US. This severe weather threat will then shift eastward to Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama by Thursday afternoon.
Looking ahead, there are signs for a soaking rain event in the eastern US from Friday into Saturday and then a second and perhaps stronger system may form later in the weekend and produce more significant rain in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. This second storm system may feature some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity of its own in its warm sector from late Sunday into Monday and perhaps even some wet snow and/or ice on its cold side in some of the higher-elevation, interior spots of the northeastern US…just as we begin the month of May.
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