The work week will end with high pressure in control resulting in comfortable conditions and some sunshine; however, a shower or two cannot be ruled out. The weekend and first half of next week will be somewhat unsettled with the threat of showers from time-to-time as we’ll have to deal with a couple of different cold frontal systems. Temperatures will climb to near 80 degrees later today and then will trend downward from later this weekend into early next week with highs on Monday and Tuesday likely confined to near the 70-degree mark.
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The atmosphere is about to undergo a significant change over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico which will result in enhanced upward motion in that part of the Atlantic Basin and this, in turn, increases the chance for the development of a hurricane later next week. The change in the atmosphere is largely the result of the re-positioning of a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward along the tropics on a regular basis. This undergoing pattern change with enhanced upward motion in the Atlantic Basin may, in fact, result in additional tropical activity that takes us passed this initial threat and well into the month of October.
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Low pressure will meander off the coast during the next couple of days and most of the moisture associated with it will as well; however, an isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out around here. High pressure will take control of the weather later this weekend and it’ll stick around through the early part of next week. Temperatures will remain comfortably warm for the next couple of days and then trend a bit downward later this weekend and early next week with highs on Monday and Tuesday likely close to the 70 degree mark.
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Showers have advanced northward into the region associated with a weakening low pressure system to our south and the shower threat will continue into the end of the week as a secondary low forms over the western Atlantic. Temperatures will generally remain on the cool side of normal given the extensive cloud cover that is expected during the new few days and the persistent onshore flow. High pressure will try to take control of the weather this weekend with the continuation of comfortable temperatures and partial sunshine on both days.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical season became more active during the past couple of weeks after a relatively quiet stretch since mid-August and it looks like the increased action will persist into October. In fact, the evolving overall weather pattern has a chance to produce a serious tropical threat in about 7 to 10 days with the likely region of interest for initial formation and intensification extending from the Caribbean Sea to the Gulf of Mexico. The movement of a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward around the global tropics will create a change in the atmosphere that will lead to enhanced upward motion later next week over the still very warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. This pattern change will enhance the chances for tropical storm formation and intensification in this part of the Atlantic Basin. All residents across the Gulf and US east coasts should keep an eye on any tropical storm formation next week as the potential for a powerful storm system is quite high.
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Low pressure that formed near the Carolina coastline has pushed inland in the overnight hours to a position over upstate South Carolina. Its rain shield is making some progress up the coast., but high pressure to the northeast is limiting its northward push. The threat of showers will increase here by Wednesday and continue into Thursday; however, total rainfall amounts may be quite limited in this area due to the overall blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere.
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The week will start off on the quiet side with high pressure remaining in control leading to more dry and comfortable temperatures around here. Low pressure is intensifying along the Carolina coastline and this system will bring changes to the pattern with some beneficial rainfall on the way. The low makes a move inland later tonight in a northwesterly direction and rain is going to push slowly up the coast. The threat of rain that begins here later tomorrow night will stick around for a few days thanks to a blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere and some of the rain that falls in this unsettled stretch can be on the heavy side.
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Strong high pressure centered to our northeast will continue to control the weather around here right through the upcoming weekend. By early next week, with the strong high pressure system still positioned to our north and east, a tropical disturbance is likely to form somewhere near the Southeast US coastline. This system should then push slowly to the north potentially bringing some beneficial rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region by late Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.
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Strong high pressure centered to our northeast will continue to control the weather around here right through the upcoming weekend. By early next week, with the high pressure system still to our northeast, a tropical disturbance is likely to form somewhere near the Southeast US coastline. This system could then push slowly to the north potentially bringing some rain to the Mid-Atlantic region by the middle of next week; however, the high pressure system over the NE US/SE Canada will be reluctant to give up its ground.
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Hurricane Francine is closing in on the central Louisiana coastline as a strong category 1 storm and maximum sustained winds of around 90 mph. After landfall later today, Francine will slowly weaken as it pushes in a general northeasterly direction reaching southern Mississippi by early Thursday. From there, the remnants of Francine will become increasingly influenced by very strong high pressure ridging over southern Canada and its northward progression will grind to a halt over the western part of the Tennessee Valley. With the atmospheric blocking still in place later this weekend, new low pressure is likely to form somewhere near the Carolina coastline. This system will have plenty of available tropical moisture and its rain field could push slowly to the north early next week…potentially bringing some beneficial rains to the Mid-Atlantic region.
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