The peripheral region of an intense upper-level ridge can often be quite an active area for thunderstorms this time of year and this summer has been no exception. Specifically, the northeastern quadrant of an intense upper-level ridge where northwesterly flow dominates in the overall clockwise circulation around high pressure can often contain numerous bands of thunderstorms, complexes of thunderstorms and even long-lasting lines known as derechos. This “ring of fire” region in the outer peripheral of high pressure with northwesterly flow aloft has been repeatedly showing up this summer extending from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic and numerous severe weather outbreaks have been the result. A repeat performance is on the table during the next few days with Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday likely to feature numerous bands of strong-to-severe thunderstorms that will potentially impact the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.
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The early and middle parts of the week look to be quite unsettled in the NYC metro region with the chance of showers and thunderstorms from time-to-time. Temperatures will climb to near 80 degrees today and then well into the 80’s on Tuesday with that chance of showers and thunderstorms. Looking ahead, the Labor Day weekend could turn out to be quite nice with a comfortable air mass and high pressure to our north taking control.
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A cold front will cross the region today and push off the eastern seaboard potentially bringing an afternoon shower or thunderstorm to some spots. High pressure builds in for the weekend providing us with warm conditions and plenty of sunshine on both days. It turns warmer and more humid during the early and middle parts of next week after high pressure shifts to the western Atlantic Ocean.
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There will be a warm front pushing through the region today and then a cold front on Friday and the weather will be quite unsettled as a result. There is the chance for showers and thunderstorms at just about anytime today and tonight…some of the storms can be strong-to-severe and some of the rain can be heavy. Another shower or thunderstorm is possible on Friday as the cold front works it way off the eastern seaboard. High pressure then pushes back into the area for the weekend providing warm conditions for both Saturday and Sunday and plenty of sunshine.
One final note, there is a lunar eclipse tonight that peaks at 12:13am (ET) with 96% of the lunar surface covered by Earth’s shadow…weather permitting of course and it looks mostly cloudy.
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High pressure remains in control of the weather for one more day, but then a couple of frontal systems will generate unsettled weather around here from tomorrow into Friday. A warm front will approach the area later tonight and early Thursday and then a cold front will arrive on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms can move into the area early tomorrow and continue off and on into tomorrow night and a residual shower or thunderstorm is possible on Friday. High pressure pushes back into the area for the weekend providing comfortably warm weather conditions for both Saturday and Sunday.
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High pressure will be in control of the weather across the Mid-Atlantic region for the next couple of days resulting in plenty of sunshine and comfortable conditions for the latter part of August. The weather becomes unsettled on Thursday with the arrival of a warm front and this will increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms. The threat of rain continues on Friday as well as a cold front approaches the area from the northwest. The weekend should begin with more comfortable conditions as high pressure pushes in this direction on the back side of the cool front.
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Labor Day is still two weeks away and that puts this outlook in the “speculation” phase; however, there are interesting and somewhat consistent signs of an “omega” blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere over North America which is more typical of winter or spring seasons. An “omega” blocking pattern typically features an upper-level ridge sandwiched in between two upper-level troughs and these systems tend to linger for several days. If indeed this pattern unfolds with an upper-level trough centered over the Northeast US, then any chance for sustained heat for summer’s unofficial end would be quite low in that part of the nation. However, if the ridge sets up over the Northeast US then 90+ degree heat would certainly remain on the table in those urban areas along the I-95 corridor.
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Following the passage of a cold front, a more comfortable air mass has pushed into the Mid-Atlantic region, but it doesn’t come completely on the dry side. There is a band of showers headed across eastern PA this morning and there can be a shower or thunderstorm here today at just about any time. Temperatures should peak in the lower 80’s during each of the next few days with relatively comfortable humidity levels. The combination of a warm and cold front later this week will bring more unsettled weather back to the Mid-Atlantic.
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The overall unsettled weather pattern in the Mid-Atlantic region did not end with yesterday’s showers and thunderstorms. After a pleasant Friday, yet another wave of energy aloft will push south and east into the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday raising the chance of showers and thunderstorms and some of the rain can be heavy. As far temperatures are concerned, it looks like there will be no sustained high heat as we wind down the month of August and some comfortable days in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Our active weather pattern in the Mid-Atlantic region continues for the next several days with multiple chances of heavy showers and severe thunderstorms that can produce damaging wind gusts and even isolated tornadoes. In a similar pattern to recent severe weather outbreaks, a strong wave of energy will drop southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic region later today riding along a northwesterly flow of air on the peripheral of strong high pressure centered over the western states.
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