An active and complex weather pattern will bring back-to-back threats to the Mid-Atlantic region early next week and there can be some accumulating snow in each event. The first system will be rather weak, but it can still generate some accumulating snow from Sunday night into early Monday in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. The second and stronger system will have much more available moisture compared to the first and its main impact will likely take place from later Monday into Tuesday night. This second event could feature a snow-to-ice-to-rain scenario with snow and ice accumulations possible on the front end before any changeover to plain rain.
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The overall weather pattern looks quite active in coming days with multiple waves likely to trek across the country. One wave will arrive in California by the early part of the weekend and then reach the Great Lakes region by Sunday evening. This system will spread snow into the Ohio Valley by later Sunday and then snow could break out here in the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday night and continue into early Monday. A second and stronger wave will follow quickly and it could bring substantial amounts of precipitation here on Tuesday – perhaps a snow-to-ice-to-rain scenario.
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This week has been featured some unseasonably mild weather in the Mid-Atlantic region, but a strong cold frontal passage on Friday will usher in a much colder air mass for the weekend and there are reasons to believe that we may be entering an extended cold and stormy stretch of weather. A tropical disturbance known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecasted to enter into “phases” that argue for colder-than-normal conditions in much the eastern US for an extended period of time. In addition, the overall pattern is shaping up to be quite active with numerous systems likely to cross the country in coming days and threaten this region with lots of wintry precipitation.
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Today will be another damp day in the Mid-Atlantic region with an occasional shower or some patchy drizzle that’ll continue into the overnight hours as a strong cold front approaches from the west. That front will slide through early tomorrow and usher in a much colder air mass for the upcoming weekend. Winds will kick up tomorrow afternoon behind the frontal passage and temperatures will begin to slide. Both weekend days will feature afternoon temperatures primarily in the 30’s despite some sunshine each day. Looking ahead, next week looks quite active with multiple threats and plenty of cold air around. A wave of low pressure may generate some snow or snow showers on Sunday night and/or Monday and then another system may impact the region with snow or rain by Tuesday...stay tuned.
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It’ll be much colder today compared to Tuesday as a frontal passage in the overnight hours has ushered in quite a different air mass compared to yesterday. Some rain is likely here by later today and it'll continue into the overnight hours and we'll stay damp on Thursday with more showers possible as it turns a bit milder. A strong cold front will arrive early Friday and we’ll turn windy and colder late in the day and at night which will set us up for a cold weekend.
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The warm up that began over the weekend and intensified on Monday will likely bring temperatures to the 60 degree mark for highs today in the Philly metro region. High pressure moving eastward across southern Canada will push colder air our way later tonight and tomorrow will feature a one day return to seasonably cold conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region. A chilly rain is likely later tomorrow and tomorrow night and then it'll turn milder on Thursday with showers possible. On Friday, a strong cold front will approach and it'll turn even milder with a continuing threat of showers. That cold frontal system will pass through the region late Friday and usher in much colder air for the upcoming weekend.
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The warm up that began over the weekend will continue for the next couple of days with highs today in the 50's and not far from 60 degrees on Tuesday. A couple of showers are possible tonight as a frontal system is dragged through the region by low pressure to the north, but the bulk of today and Tuesday will be rain-free. A cold front will usher in colder air at mid-week, but it’ll turn milder again late in the week ahead of a strong cold front which should arrive here later Friday and set the stage for a much colder weekend.
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There is still some snow falling at mid-day across western Pennsylvania and West Virginia and it’ll continue at varying rates for another few hours in the DC-to-Philly corridor. Ground-level temperatures remain quite cold during this snow event and this is a main contributing factor to the slick road conditions – even on treated surfaces - as salt is less effective at these very cold levels. In general, surface temperatures in the DC metro region at mid-day fall near 20 degrees and between 10 and 15 degrees in the Philly metro region. This system will stay primarily to the south of the NYC metro area with nothing more than some possible flurries – i.e., a “DC-to-Philly” special. Accumulations in the DC-to-Philly corridor should end up in the “coating to an inch or two” range.
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Fast-moving low pressure will spread some accumulating snow into the Mid-Atlantic region today as part of a transition in the overall weather pattern from the recent bitter cold to milder conditions that’ll begin here this weekend. The snow should start around mid-morning in the Philly metro region and then wind down during the afternoon with a coating to an inch or two. One word of caution, watch for slick spots on untreated and treated surface today as ground-level temperatures are very cold and salt is less effective. We’ll gradually step up in temperatures this weekend and then the real break in the cold will be experienced in the Monday-to-Wednesday time period of next week. Cold air, however, is likely to return at the end of next week following our temporary break in the cold.
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Clouds will increase late tonight ahead of a quick-moving low pressure system and there can be a minor snow event on Friday in the DC-to-Philly corridor. This system is a fast-mover with limited upper-level support and moisture so it should not be a significant snow producer - perhaps a coating to an inch or two - but still need to watch for slick spots with the frigid cold ground-level air temperatures. The weekend will begin a warming trend that will peak in the Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday time period of next week, but cold weather will make a return by the end of next week. Elsewhere, the record-breaking cold across the Upper Midwest will ease after today, but more all-time record lows were set this morning.
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