It’ll turn a bit milder today ahead of a weak cold frontal system, but then cooler again for the next couple of days. A significant cold air outbreak appears to be headed in this direction from central Canada for the end of the work week and, at the same time, moisture is likely to advance to the northeast from the southern states along the frontal boundary zone. There is a chance that this could result in a rain-changing-to-snow showers type of scenario from late Thursday night into early Friday morning for at least parts of the region. Whether or not the snow showers actually materialize, the cold blast will be the bigger story and temperatures Friday night will be unusually cold for early November. Another very impressive cold blast for the early season is destined to arrive here early next week.
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November has started off colder for the nation as a whole than all but two years (1991, 2002) going back to the late 1970’s and there won’t be much let up for the eastern 2/3rds through at least the middle part of the month. The powerful frontal passage late last week in the eastern US was part of an overall pattern change and the warmth of October has transitioned to the cold of November. There will likely be multiple cold air outbreaks over the next couple of weeks that ride along in the polar jet stream from central Canada to the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. After a bit of a warm up on Tuesday, it’ll turn cooler again at mid-week, but it is the late week when another impressive cold air blast will arrive. This next shot of cold air will drop southeastward from Canada and arrive in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US in the Thursday night/Friday time period. Another cold air outbreak is destined to reach the central and eastern US early next week. Both of these cold air outbreaks may present some snow possibilities for the Great Lakes and interior NE US and even to parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.
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The overall weather pattern continues to look quite chilly for the next couple of weeks with a persistent flow of air from central Canada into the Mid-Atlantic region. While it’ll turn a bit milder on Tuesday, the passage of another cold front will bring more chilly air to the region for the mid-week and quite a cold air mass for early November will arrive at the end of the week. At the same time, low pressure may pull out of the southern states and we’ll have to watch for the possibility of rain or even rain-changing-to-snow at week’s end. Another cold blast is destined to arrive in the central and eastern US next week.
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Every once in awhile there is a frontal passage that not only brings about a change in air mass for the short-term, but it can be associated with a longer-term pattern change and that looks to be the case with the powerful cold front that blasted through the Mid-Atlantic region and northeast US last night. In this particular case, the frontal passage happened to occur right around the transition from October-to-November and the overall temperature pattern indeed looks to me like it’ll flip across the nation. In October, temperatures were generally above-normal in the eastern US and below-normal in the western can central states - and in some cases significantly so. All signs point to a flip of this pattern in November with colder-than-normal weather for the Mid-Atlantic/NE US/Midwest/Great Lakes and warmer-than-normal conditions in the western part of the country.
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Last night’s frontal passage has ushered in much colder air for the region and the winds will stay a factor as well through a good part of the day. Temperatures will be confined to the lower 50’s for highs this afternoon following the 70+ degrees that we experienced on Thursday. Winds will diminish tonight and temperatures will drop to the freezing mark late tonight under clear skies and that will be the first time this season for many locations. A secondary cold front will usher in an even cooler air mass on Sunday and a widespread freeze is likely late Sunday night/early Monday morning as high pressure moves directly overhead.
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All the ingredients are coming together for a wild weather event tonight in the Mid-Atlantic region and northeastern US. Vigorous energy in the upper part of the atmosphere associated with a powerful jet streak will combine with a low-level jet, very warm and humid air, and an intensifying surface low pressure system to generate a squall line along a slow-moving cold frontal boundary zone. This squall line should arrive in the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor region of DC-to-Philly-to-NYC between 8 and 11 PM with torrential downpours, strong-to-severe thunderstorms, 50-60 mph wind gusts and perhaps isolated tornadoes.
Much colder air will arrive late tonight riding in on strong NW winds and a secondary push of colder air will arrive on Sunday leading to the first widespread freeze from late Sunday night into early Monday morning in the I-95 corridor. In fact, the overall weather pattern will tend to change dramatically with tonight’s powerful cold frontal passage with colder-than-normal conditions likely in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US for much of the month of November following a warmer-than-normal October.
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Today will be an unusually warm day for the end of October with windy conditions and occasional showers although there will be much rain-free time as well. A powerful cold front will slowly push in our direction today from the Ohio Valley and a squall line is likely to form along its boundary zone late in the afternoon extending in a north-to-south fashion from central NY-to-central PA-to-western Virginia. This squall line will arrive here late this evening bringing us heavy downpours, possible strong-to-severe thunderstorms, and wind gusts to 50+ mph. The most likely timetable for this Halloween Night wild weather is between the hours of 8PM and 2AM. Power outages are on the table as many leaves remain on trees which makes them more vulnerable than say a month from now. Behind the front, winds will turn to a west-to-northwest direction and can gust past 40 mph towards Friday daybreak. It'll turn much cooler late tonight and for Friday and then an even colder air mass will arrive on Sunday leading to the first widespread freeze around here late Sunday night/early Monday.
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Every once in awhile there is a frontal passage that is a longer-term pattern changer and tomorrow night, we will experience such a front in the Mid-Atlantic region and NE US. October has been generally warmer-than-normal in the eastern US with Philly, for example, at +3.2 ºF for the month so far and Washington’s Reagan National Airport at +4.4 ºF. The strong cold front that will pass through the region tomorrow night with downpours, strong-to-severe thunderstorms, and howling winds gusting up to 50 mph will usher in much cooler air for Friday and Saturday and then a secondary front on Sunday will usher in the coldest air of the season so far. A widespread freeze is likely on Sunday night for the first time this season in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US and a colder-than-normal pattern is likely to continue for much of the month of November.
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A slow-moving strong cold front will continue to slowly trek across the nation over the next couple of days and it’ll remain to our west through most of the day on Thursday. As a result, it’ll stay warm and quite breezy around here on Halloween Day with occasional showers likely. As the front arrives later tomorrow night, there is likely to be a period of heavy rainfall going into the overnight hours along with possible strong thunderstorms. There can be some residual rain early Friday, but it’ll soon push off the east coast and temperatures will be some 10-15 degrees lower compared to the unusually warm conditions expected on Halloween Day. Even cooler air will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region by the latter part of the weekend and it looks like an overall cooler-than-normal weather pattern will continue through much of the first part of November. (By the way, this is the weekend in which we turn the clocks back an hour).
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High pressure will continue to produce onshore in the region and this will lead to patchy drizzle at times and relatively mild temperatures. A warm front will arrive on Wednesday increasing the chances for showers in the Mid-Atlantic region. A strong cold front will be situated to our west on Thursday, Halloween Day, and this will result in occasional showers with breezy and mild conditions. Later Thursday night, as the strong cold front arrives, heavy rainfall is likely and there can be strong-to-severe thunderstorms mixed in. It’ll turn cooler on Friday behind the front and then even cooler air arrives this weekend in what looks to be a cooler weather pattern setting up for the first part of November.
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