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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: PHL

6:15 AM | **Chance of PM showers and thunderstorms...some of the storms can be strong-to-severe and flooding downpours are possible**

Paul Dorian

It’ll remain very warm, humid, and unsettled this week with showers and thunderstorms from time-to-time. Any thunderstorm that forms in this tropical environment can reach strong-to-severe levels with flooding downpours and damaging wind gusts on the table. A strong cold front will slowly cross the region later today, stall out nearby on Tuesday, and then push northward later Wednesday as a warm front. Another cold front approaches towards the end of the week.

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6:15 AM | *Very warm and humid conditions for the next several days*

Paul Dorian

It’ll remain very warm and humid through the weekend with patchy fog around early today and again late tonight/early tomorrow. There will be weak disturbances moving through from time-to-time generating scattered showers and thunderstorms; primarily, during the afternoon and evening hours. A string front crosses the area early next week likely with some strong thunderstorm activity and it’ll remain very warm and humid for much of next week.

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6:15 AM | *A bit cooler today with scattered showers and thunderstorms...watch for patchy fog late tonight*

Paul Dorian

Our unsettled weather pattern continues today and scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible; however, the rainfall shouldn’t be as heavy or as widespread as it was during the past couple of days and severe weather risks should be rather limited. A weak frontal system will meander in the Mid-Atlantic region through the weekend keeping it unsettled through the period and then a stronger front should arrive on Monday and strong thunderstorms will be possible. It will be a bit cooler today with afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 80’s…no intense heat is in sight.

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***Strong-to-severe thunderstorm threat late today/early tonight in much of the Mid-Atlantic region...flooding downpours again possible***

Paul Dorian

In general, it is much the same story as yesterday in the Mid-Atlantic region as far as the weather is concerned with the chance of late afternoon and early evening strong-to-severe thunderstorms along with possible flooding downpours. One minor difference from yesterday will be perhaps a bit later arrival time for the storms in the I-95 corridor as we’re looking at the late afternoon or early evening hours in many spots. Like yesterday, the ingredients are there for strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity and possible downpours including an upper-level trough, a slow-moving surface frontal system, and a humid air mass. The unsettled weather pattern continues from tomorrow through the upcoming weekend with a daily shot at showers and thunderstorms and much of next week looks unsettled as well.

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6:15 AM | **Another day and another threat of PM showers and strong storms in the Mid-Atlantic region**

Paul Dorian

A very unsettled weather pattern will continue through the second half of the week in the Mid-Atlantic region with additional strong storms and downpours possible. Given the already well saturated grounds, any additional heavy rainfall can lead to localized flash flooding conditions. Ingredients for this unsettled weather pattern include a tropical air mass left behind by TS Barry, a slow-moving surface frontal system, and an upper-level trough of low pressure.

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Tuesday PM - ****Strong-to-severe thunderstorms later today/early tonight...tropical downpours with possible flash flooding...similar scenario likely later tomorrow****

Paul Dorian

The combination of an upper-level trough, a slow-moving surface frontal system, and an extremely humid air mass will result in strong-to-severe thunderstorms later today and early tonight and there can be a repeat performance later tomorrow. Any shower or thunderstorm in this tropical air mass can produce flooding rainfall given the well saturated nature of the grounds in the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures today have soared to 90+ degrees all along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and the high humidity is making for a very uncomfortable day. The unsettled weather pattern continues from Thursday into Sunday with a daily shot at showers and thunderstorms.

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6:15 AM | ***Severe thunderstorm threat later this afternoon and evening...tropical downpours can cause flash flooding conditions...unsettled pattern continues second half of the week***

Paul Dorian

Tropical air is in place across the region and an upper-level trough of low pressure will combine with a slow-moving surface frontal system to enhance upward motion during the afternoon and evening hours. This combination of ingredients can lead to severe thunderstorms for later today and early tonight and tropical downpours can cause flash flooding given the already well saturated grounds. The unsettled weather pattern will continue through the second half of the week with a daily shot at additional showers and thunderstorms and some of that rain is likely to be heavy at times. .

As far as temperatures are concerned, today could turn out to be the hottest day of the week with afternoon highs near the 95 degree mark. The heat today combined with the high humidity will make for very uncomfortable conditions all along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. The remainder of the week is likely to feature temperatures a tad more limited compared to today with afternoon highs generally in the 85-90 degree range.

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Monday Mid-Day Update - ***Tropical moisture enhances the threat of flooding downpours in the Mid-Atlantic region...daily threat of showers and storms likely to last right to the weekend***

Paul Dorian

A very unsettled stretch of weather is in store for the Mid-Atlantic region with a shot of showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis right into the upcoming weekend. The rainfall during the next few days will be enhanced by a tropical air mass that pushed northward this weekend along with the remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal. In addition, a slow-moving upper-level trough of low pressure now centered over the Great Lakes will enhance upward motion in the Mid-Atlantic region between now and mid-week. As a result, tropical downpours are possible during each of the next few days which can bring flash-flooding conditions to portions of the Mid-Atlantic region with today’s greatest concern centered around the Chesapeake Bay region. Any thunderstorm from later today into the mid-week can reach strong-to-severe levels with perhaps the highest risk of severe weather coming on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

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6:15 AM | ***Tropical moisture adds fuel to the fire...an unsettled week with a daily shot at showers and thunderstorms...some of the rain will be heavy***

Paul Dorian

After a dry and warm holiday weekend, the weather will turn noticeably more humid today with an influx of tropical moisture from the remains of Tropical Storm Chantal which formed during the weekend over the western Atlantic. The week as a whole will be very unsettled with the daily chance of showers and thunderstorms…some of the storms can be strong and some of the rain will be heavy at times. High pressure ridging that has been in control will retreat offshore today as low pressure troughing develops across the Midwest/Great Lakes region and combines with a tropical air mass to influence our weather.

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6:00 AM | *Very nice weather for the 4th of July...weekend looking good as well with warm, dry conditions*

Paul Dorian

A cold front will drop southeastward today through the northeastern states and it can set off a few late day/early evening showers and thunderstorms in the area…some of the storms can be strong on the north/northeast side of the metro region. High pressure builds into the area on Friday and the 4th of July holiday should turn out to be very nice with comfortably warm conditions, lower humidity, and plenty of sunshine. The weekend looks good as well with warm and dry conditions and plenty of sunshine on both days. Warmer, more humid, and unsettled weather conditions will return to the Mid-Atlantic region early next week.

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