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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

**Changing weather pattern suggests a big-time tropical threat is possible in a week or so**

Paul Dorian

The Atlantic Basin tropical season became more active during the past couple of weeks after a relatively quiet stretch since mid-August and it looks like the increased action will persist into October. In fact, the evolving overall weather pattern has a chance to produce a serious tropical threat in about 7 to 10 days with the likely region of interest for initial formation and intensification extending from the Caribbean Sea to the Gulf of Mexico. The movement of a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward around the global tropics will create a change in the atmosphere that will lead to enhanced upward motion later next week over the still very warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. This pattern change will enhance the chances for tropical storm formation and intensification in this part of the Atlantic Basin. All residents across the Gulf and US east coasts should keep an eye on any tropical storm formation next week as the potential for a powerful storm system is quite high.

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7:00 AM | *Dry and comfortably warm next few days*

Paul Dorian

Quiet weather will continue today across the Tennessee Valley and for much of the remainder of the week as well. Drier air filtered into the area on Monday and the next few days will be dominated by dry, comfortably warm conditions featuring some sunshine on a daily basis.

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6:15 AM | *Onshore flow to keep it cool, cloudy and damp next few days...rain shield to our south slowly pushing north*

Paul Dorian

Low pressure that formed near the Carolina coastline has pushed inland in the overnight hours to a position over upstate South Carolina. Its rain shield is making some progress up the coast, but high pressure to the north and east is acting as a barrier to the northward advance. The threat of showers will increase here today and continue through mid-week with the heaviest total rainfall amounts likely ending up across the southern half of the DC metro region and lesser amounts across the northern Maryland suburbs.

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6:15 AM | *Onshore flow to keep it on the cloudy, cool side for next few days...rain shield to our south having difficulty pushing north*

Paul Dorian

Low pressure that formed near the Carolina coastline has pushed inland in the overnight hours to a position over upstate South Carolina. Its rain shield is making some progress up the coast., but high pressure to the northeast is limiting its northward push. The threat of showers will increase here by late tonight and continue through mid-week; however, total rainfall amounts may be quite limited in this area due to the overall blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere.

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6:15 AM | *Onshore flow to keep it on the cool, cloudy side next few days...rain shield to our south having difficulty pushing north*

Paul Dorian

Low pressure that formed near the Carolina coastline has pushed inland in the overnight hours to a position over upstate South Carolina. Its rain shield is making some progress up the coast., but high pressure to the northeast is limiting its northward push. The threat of showers will increase here by Wednesday and continue into Thursday; however, total rainfall amounts may be quite limited in this area due to the overall blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere.

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7:00 AM | *Winds become a factor next couple of days...much cooler weather on the way for the late week/weekend*

Paul Dorian

It remains warm during the next couple of days and winds will become a noticeable factor gusting up to 25 or 30 mph at times. There will be an isolated shower or thunderstorm later today and a better chance on Tuesday at which time some of the storms can be severe over the plains. It turns noticeably cooler late in the week with a strong upper-level low moving into the Rocky Mountain States and high mountain snows will become a possibility by the weekend.

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6:15 AM | *Low pressure developing along the Carolina coast will bring some beneficial rainfall to the region*

Paul Dorian

The week will start off on the quiet side with high pressure remaining in control leading to more rain-free and comfortable weather conditions around here although clouds will be abundant. Low pressure is intensifying along the Carolina coastline and this system will bring changes to the overall pattern with some beneficial rainfall on the way. The low makes a move inland later tonight in a northwesterly direction and rain is going to push slowly up the east coast. The threat of rain that begins here late tonight will stick around for a few days thanks to a blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere and some of the rain that falls in this unsettled stretch can be on the heavy side.

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6:15 AM | *Low pressure developing along the Carolina coast will bring some beneficial rainfall to the region*

Paul Dorian

The week will start off on the quiet side with high pressure remaining in control leading to more dry and comfortable temperatures around here. Low pressure is intensifying along the Carolina coastline and this system will bring changes to the pattern with some beneficial rainfall on the way. The low makes a move inland later tonight in a northwesterly direction and rain is going to push slowly up the coast. The threat of rain that begins here later tomorrow night will stick around for a few days thanks to a blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere and some of the rain that falls in this unsettled stretch can be on the heavy side.

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