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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

6:15 AM | **Winter storm hits southern Mid-Atlantic region hard...far less impact here**

Paul Dorian

A major winter storm system will move eastward today and produce snow in the DC-to-Philly corridor; however, there will be minimal impact in the NYC metro region with a coating to an inch possible. Dry, cold air is entrenched across the Northeast US anchored by strong high pressure to the northwest and this will inhibit the precipitation shield of this storm system from advancing this far to the northeast. Arctic cold will follow the departing low pressure system for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday as our cold, active weather pattern continues in the Mid-Atlantic region. Later in the week, low pressure is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico and it can move northeast from there and have an impact on the region this weekend.

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6:00 AM | ****Biggest snow event in awhile for DC metro...heavy snow in the AM...possible lull in the afternoon..."backend" snow develops by early evening...sleet can mix in at times****

Paul Dorian

A major winter storm system will move eastward today and produce significant accumulating snow in the area that is likely to fall at its heaviest during the morning hours. In fact, there can be a lull in the precipitation during the afternoon and sleet can mix in at times; especially, to the south and west of the metro region. Snow or a mix of snow and sleet that changes back to all snow likely re-intensifies during the late afternoon or early evening hours on the backend of the storm system with additional accumulations possible. Total accumulations of 5-10 inches are on the table with isolated higher amounts possible of up to 12 inches or so…the biggest snow event in several years for the DC metro region. Arctic cold will follow for the next few days as our cold, active weather pattern continues in the Mid-Atlantic region. Later in the week, low pressure is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico and it can move northeast from there and have an impact in the region this weekend.

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6:00 AM | ***Some accumulating snow today...lull in precipitation this afternoon...backend snow likely this evening******

Paul Dorian

A winter storm system will move eastward today and produce accumulating snow in the area with the heaviest likely to fall during the morning hours. In fact, there can be a lull in the precipitation this afternoon and then the return of some snow or snow showers by late afternoon or early evening on the backend of the storm system. Total accumulations are likely to fall in the 2-4 inch range with the higher amounts generally to the south of the metro region and lowest amounts to the north. Arctic cold will follow for the next few days as our cold, active weather pattern continues in the Mid-Atlantic region. Later in the week, low pressure is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico and it can move northeast from there and have an impact in the region this weekend.

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Sunday mid-day | ****Winter storm to impact southern Mid-Atlantic region…snow arrives in DC near midnight…before daybreak in Philly…little impact in NYC…a look ahead to more cold and storm threats****

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will intensify today as it treks eastward through the Tennessee Valley and reaches the coastal waters of the southern Mid-Atlantic by Monday evening. This system will continue to produce significant snowfall along the way with a foot in many areas and there will be a swath of disruptive ice immediately to the south of the heavy snow zone. In addition, there will be an enhanced risk of severe weather later today and early tonight in the storm’s warm sector centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley region.

Snow should arrive in the DC metro region around midnight and into the Philly metro just before daybreak. The heaviest snow in both places will likely be on the front end meaning late tonight and during Monday morning. In fact, there can be a lull in the precipitation on Monday afternoon and then some areas will receive “backend” snow on Monday evening; especially, in the region from DC to the Delmarva to southern NJ. The advance of the snow shield to the north will be inhibited by very dry air stationed over the Northeast US. As such, the storm’s effects will be more limited in places like Philadelphia compared to Washington, D.C. and virtually nonexistent up across New York City. Looking ahead, all indications point to plenty of cold weather left in January – potentially some extreme cold – and multiple storm threats including the possibility of one by the weekend.

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****Major winter storm from central Plains to Mid-Atlantic with significant snow, disruptive ice…watch for “cold conveyor belt” snow on the backend...late week/weekend storm threat****

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will intensify over the central Plains on Sunday and it will become a major winter storm with widespread impact as it treks eastward reaching the coastal waters of the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday night. This system will produce significant snowfall along the way with more than a foot in many areas and there will be a swath of disruptive ice immediately to the south of the heavy snow zone. In addition, there will be an enhanced risk of severe weather on Sunday in the storm’s warm sector over the Lower Mississippi Valley region. The storm arrives in the Mid-Atlantic region late Sunday night and precipitation can last all the way into Monday night in some sections thanks in part to the likely development of “cold conveyor belt” snow on the back end.

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6:15 AM | **A cold weekend shaping up...a chance of accumulating snow late Sunday night and Monday**

Paul Dorian

An Arctic cold front will approach the region today and it can produce a couple of snow showers in the area from later this afternoon into early this evening. The weekend will be quite cold with Arctic high pressure in control limiting our temperatures to the low-to-middle 30’s for afternoon highs on both days.

By the latter part of the weekend, low pressure will begin to intensify over the middle of the nation and it’ll have quite a bit of cold air to work with resulting in plenty of accumulating snow on its north side. This system will slide from west-to-east by Sunday night and Monday producing a significant snowfall along the way across the Midwest. There is a chance for snow here on Monday, but the heaviest amounts may stay just to our south…stay tuned on that. This system will then slide off the east coast by Tuesday of next week and more Arctic air will follow encompassing a wide part of the nation.

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6:15 AM | ****A burst of snow later today with some accumulations possible...more accumulating snow from late Sunday night into late Monday with several inches on the table****

Paul Dorian

An Arctic cold front will approach the region later today and likely bring with it some snow shower activity and perhaps even a brief period of steadier snow that could result in accumulations of as much as 2 to 3 inches. The time period of concern for this quick burst of snow is roughly 2-7 pm…watch for slick spots. The weekend will be quite cold with Arctic high pressure in control limiting our temperatures to the lower 30’s for afternoon highs on both days.

By the latter part of the weekend, low pressure will begin to intensify over the middle of the nation and it’ll have quite a bit of cold air to work with resulting in plenty of accumulating snow on its north side. This system will slide from west-to-east producing a significant snowfall along the way across the Midwest later Sunday and then likely reach the Philly metro region with accumulating snow by late Sunday night. Precipitation from this storm system can last all the way into Monday night with several inches of snowfall on the table. One possible complicating factor with respect to the snow accumulation amounts will be sleet which can mix into the picture; especially, just to the south and east of Philly across southern NJ and Delaware. This low pressure will then slide off the east coast on Tuesday and more Arctic air will follow encompassing a wide part of the nation.

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