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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

**Severe weather threat(s)...additional cold air outbreaks...stratospheric warming impact...recap of weekend's dramatic "back door" cold frontal passage**

Paul Dorian

Strong-to-severe thunderstorms are a threat later today and tonight across much of the eastern US including in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor as a strong cold front pushes eastward towards the Atlantic seaboard. This same frontal system resulted in numerous damaging wind gusts on Sunday across the Midwest/Mississippi Valley with a few tornadoes reported there as well and that same part of the nation will likely have a repeat performance of severe weather on Wednesday. In fact, numerous severe weather outbreaks are on the table for the month of April largely as the result of a recent stratospheric warming event which, in turn, enhances the likelihood for additional cold air outbreaks into the central and eastern states setting up “battle zone” regions. Finally, we’ll revisit the passage of a “back door” cold front this weekend that impacted the northeastern states and, in some locations, there were record-breaking temperature swings.

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7:00 AM | **Rain late today and tonight and possible strong-to-severe thunderstorms...rain can be heavy at times and there is a risk of damaging wind gusts with any late day/nighttime thunderstorm**

Paul Dorian

A strong cold front will approach the region later today and then push through late tonight bringing with it rain and potential strong-to-severe thunderstorms. The rain will be scattered though mid-afternoon and then becomes more widespread late today and tonight and it can fall heavily at times bringing the risk of flash flooding to some parts of the area. Any thunderstorm late today/tonight can result in damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Following the cold frontal passage, it turns much cooler on Tuesday and breezy as well with temperatures holding in the upper 50’s for afternoon highs…below-normal for the first day of April. High pressure stays in control at mid-week, and then another strong frontal system approaches on Thursday with a surge of warmth on its front side pumping temperatures to near 80 degrees along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Read More

7:00 AM | **Rain late today and tonight and possible strong-to-severe thunderstorms...rain can be heavy at times and there is a risk of damaging wind gusts with any late day/nighttime thunderstorm**

Paul Dorian

A strong cold front will approach the region later today and then push through late tonight bringing with it rain and potential strong-to-severe thunderstorms. The rain will be scattered though mid-afternoon and then becomes more widespread late today and tonight and it can fall heavily at times bringing the risk of flash flooding to some parts of the area. Any thunderstorm late today/tonight can result in damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Following the cold frontal passage, it turns much cooler on Tuesday and breezy as well with temperatures holding in the middle 50’s for afternoon highs…below-normal for the first day of April. High pressure stays in control at mid-week, and then another strong frontal system approaches on Thursday with a surge of warmth on its front side pumping temperatures well up into the 70’s along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Read More

7:00 AM | **Rain late today and tonight and possible strong-to-severe thunderstorms...rain can be heavy at times and there is a risk of damaging wind gusts with any late day/nighttime thunderstorm**

Paul Dorian

A strong cold front will approach the region later today and then push through late tonight bringing with it rain and potential strong-to-severe thunderstorms. The rain will be scattered though mid-afternoon and then becomes more widespread late today and tonight and it can fall heavily at times bringing the risk of flash flooding to some parts of the area. Any thunderstorm late today/tonight can result in damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Following the cold frontal passage, it turns much cooler on Tuesday and breezy as well with temperatures holding in the upper 50’s for afternoon highs…below-normal for the first day of April. High pressure stays in control at mid-week, and then another strong frontal system approaches on Thursday with a surge of warmth on its front side pumping temperatures well up into the 70’s along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Read More

6:15 AM | **A surge in temperatures on Saturday all along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor**

Paul Dorian

It turns slightly milder today with increasing clouds as a warm front approaches the area from our southwest and there can be a late day shower or two. Showers are likely tonight as the warm front pushes through the region and temperatures will surge on Saturday to near 80 degrees for afternoon highs. There should be some sunshine to go along with the warmth on Saturday and a stiff breeze as well from a west-to-southwest direction. This surge in temperatures will become somewhat muted on Sunday as clouds will dominate the skies and help to knock temperatures down some from tomorrow’s high levels and there will be an increasing chance of showers later in the weekend.  Looking ahead, a strong storm will pass by to the northwest of the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor region on Monday and it’ll drag a strong cold front through the area with additional shower activity and perhaps a strong thunderstorm. This frontal passage will end the warm spell leading to much colder conditions by Tuesday and its stays on the chilly side next Wednesday as well.

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6:15 AM | **A surge in temperatures on Saturday all along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor**

Paul Dorian

It turns milder today with increasing clouds as a warm front approaches the area from our southwest and there can be a couple of mid-to-late afternoon showers. Showers are likely tonight as the warm front pushes through the region and temperatures will surge on Saturday to the lower 80’s for afternoon highs. There should be some sunshine to go along with the warmth on Saturday and a stiff breeze as well from a west-to-southwest direction. This surge in temperatures will become somewhat muted on Sunday as clouds will dominate the skies and help to knock temperatures down some from tomorrow’s high levels and there will be an increasing chance of showers later in the weekend.  Looking ahead, a strong storm will pass by to the northwest of the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor region on Monday and it’ll drag a strong cold front through the area with additional shower activity and perhaps a strong thunderstorm. This frontal passage will end the warm spell leading to much colder conditions by Tuesday and its stays on the chilly side next Wednesday as well.

Read More

6:15 AM | **A surge in temperatures on Saturday all along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor...temperatures flip back on Sunday following passage of back door cool front**

Paul Dorian

It turns milder today with increasing clouds as a warm front approaches the area from our southwest and there can be a shower by the end of the afternoon. Showers are likely tonight as the warm front pushes through the region and temperatures will surge on Saturday to near 80 degrees for afternoon highs. There should be some sunshine to go along with the warmth on Saturday and a stiff breeze as well from a west-to-southwest direction. Temperatures on Sunday are likely to be much cooler across NYC and much of New Jersey as well with the passage of a back door cool frontal system from northeast-to-southwest. Looking ahead, a strong storm will pass by to the northwest of the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor region on Monday and it’ll drag a strong cold front through the area with additional shower activity and perhaps a thunderstorm. This frontal passage will end the warm spell leading to much colder conditions by Tuesday and its stays on the chilly side next Wednesday as well.

Read More