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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

6:00 AM | *Coastal storm finally pulls away later today...sunshine returns to the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday*

Paul Dorian

A coastal storm that has been impacting much of the Atlantic seaboard during the past few days will finally weaken and exit off to the east later today. Weather conditions will be slow to improve in the Mid-Atlantic region, but the mid-week should feature some sunshine in the area ahead of the next cold frontal system. That cold front will pass through the region on Wednesday night and it’ll usher in a chilly air mass with temperatures on Thursday likely to struggle to climb much past the 60-degree mark for afternoon highs despite plenty of sunshine…there will be a noticeable northwest wind as well.

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6:00 AM | **Coastal storm impacts the Mid-Atlantic for another day...rest of the week looks better**

Paul Dorian

Low pressure off the east coast will continue to influence our weather today with cloudy skies, breezy and cool conditions, and occasional rain or drizzle. This coastal system will weaken and move out to sea on Tuesday and improvement in the weather will begin to take place in the Mid-Atlantic region. High pressure builds in by the middle of the week and generates comfortably cool and dry conditions for much of the second half of the week.

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6:00 AM | **Coastal storm impacts the Mid-Atlantic for another day...rest of the week looks better**

Paul Dorian

Low pressure off the east coast will continue to influence our weather today with cloudy skies, stiff winds, cool conditions, and occasional rain. This coastal system will weaken and move out to sea on Tuesday and improvement in the weather will begin to take place in the Mid-Atlantic region. High pressure builds in by the middle of the week and generates comfortably cool and dry conditions for much of the second half of the week.

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6:00 AM | *Coastal storm impacts the Mid-Atlantic for another day...rest of the week looks better*

Paul Dorian

Low pressure off the east coast will continue to influence our weather today with cloudy skies, breezy and cool conditions, and occasional showers. This coastal system will weaken and move out to sea on Tuesday and improvement in the weather will begin to take place in the Mid-Atlantic region. High pressure builds in by the middle of the week and generates comfortably cool and dry conditions for much of the second half of the week.

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**Coastal storm to bring a prolonged period of onshore flow to the Mid-Atlantic…potentially leading to significant coastal flooding/beach erosion…limited rainfall amounts to inland locations**

Paul Dorian

Lots of players are on the field as we begin the weekend with one upper-level low over the Great Lakes that is dropping slowly to the southeast and a second wave of energy in the southern stream that is helping to spin up a surface low pressure system off the southeast US coast. In addition, there is a strong high-pressure system to our north that continues to shift slowly offshore as we begin the weekend. The combination of the high to the north and low to the south is already producing an onshore flow of air in the Mid-Atlantic region and this will persist for the next few days potentially leading to significant coastal flooding/beach erosion from Long Island-to-New Jersey-to-the Delmarva Peninsula. While there can be some heavy showers and strong wind gusts across inland areas during the next few days, rainfall amounts will be much more limited with the worst impact from this developing storm system confined to coastal sections.

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6:00 AM | ***Significant coastal storm to impact the Mid-Atlantic region from later Saturday into Monday...prolonged onshore flow to bring coastal flooding/beach erosion***

Paul Dorian

Low pressure is going to intensify significantly this weekend near the Southeast US coastline, induced by a frontal boundary zone that slides into the region, and energized by an upper-level trough that drops southeast across the Great Lakes. It appears likely that this strong coastal storm will then push far enough to the north to have an impact on the Mid-Atlantic region all the way from later Saturday into late Monday. The worst impact will be along coastal sections where rain will be heaviest, winds will be strongest, and the threat of coastal flooding/beach erosion will be high due to a prolonged period of onshore flow.

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6:00 AM | ***Significant coastal storm to impact the Mid-Atlantic region from later Saturday into Monday...prolonged onshore flow to bring coastal flooding/beach erosion***

Paul Dorian

Low pressure is going to intensify significantly this weekend near the Southeast US coastline, induced by a frontal boundary zone that slides into the region, and energized by an upper-level trough that drops southeast across the Great Lakes. It appears likely that this strong coastal storm will then push far enough to the north to have an impact on the Mid-Atlantic region all the from late Saturday night into late Monday. The worst impact will be along coastal sections where rain will be heaviest, winds will be strongest, and the threat of coastal flooding/beach erosion will be high due to a prolonged period of onshore flow. In terms of some specifics for the NYC metro region, estimates are for east-to-northeast wind gusts of 50-60 mph along coastal sections, 30-50 mph inland...3+ inches of rain along coastal sections, and 1-3 inches inland.

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6:00 AM | ***Significant coastal storm to impact the Mid-Atlantic region from later Saturday into Monday...prolonged onshore flow to bring coastal flooding/beach erosion***

Paul Dorian

Low pressure is going to intensify significantly this weekend near the Southeast US coastline, induced by a frontal boundary zone that slides into the region, and energized by an upper-level trough that drops southeast across the Great Lakes. It appears likely that this strong coastal storm will then push far enough to the north to have an impact on the Mid-Atlantic region all the way from later Saturday into late Monday. The worst impact will be along coastal sections where rain will be heaviest, winds will be strongest, and the threat of coastal flooding/beach erosion will be high due to a prolonged period of onshore flow.

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***Significant coastal storm to impact the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US from later Saturday into late Monday...prolonged period of onshore flow leads to coastal flooding/beach erosion***

Paul Dorian

Low pressure is going to intensify significantly this weekend near the Southeast US coastline, induced by a frontal boundary zone that slides into the region and energized by an upper-level trough that drops southeast across the Great Lakes. It appears increasingly likely that this strong coastal storm will then push far enough to the north to have an impact on the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US all the way from later Saturday into late Monday. The worst impact will be along coastal sections where rain will be heaviest, winds will be strongest, and the threat of coastal flooding/beach erosion will be high due to a prolonged period of onshore flow.

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6:00 AM | ***First frost of the season in many spots late tonight...significant coastal storm to impact the Mid-Atlantic region from late Saturday night-to-Monday***

Paul Dorian

Canadian high pressure will take control of the weather today leading to the coolest day so far this fall season and the possibility of the first frost late tonight in many suburban locations. Radiational cooling conditions will be quite good in the overnight hours as high pressure parks overhead and generates clear skies, light winds, and overnight temperatures well down in the 30’s in many areas.

Looking ahead to the weekend, strong low pressure system will form off the Southeast US coastline and produce heavy rainfall and strong winds for the coastal Carolinas including - once again - the Outer Banks of North Carolina. This strong coastal storm system is then likely to push northward to or just off the Mid-Atlantic coastline by later in the weekend...likely resulting in an impactful rain and wind event for the Mid-Atlantic region from late Saturday night-to-Monday.

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