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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

6:00 AM | ***Showers and thunderstorms from this afternoon into Tuesday...some of the rain will be heavy and some of the storms can be severe...localized flash flooding on the table***

Paul Dorian

The work week will start off on the wet side as low pressure heads in this direction from the Midwest. There will be occasional showers from this afternoon into Tuesday and multiple thunderstorms can be mixed into the picture. Some of the rain will be heavy and some of the storms can be severe and there is the threat of localized flooding as thunderstorms can develop in a “training” fashion meaning multiple heavy rain cells could move over the same general area. The rest of the week will feature moderately warm temperatures with no sustained high heat and humidity on the table despite it being officially the first week of the summer season.

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6:00 AM | *Middle 90's on the table for Saturday afternoon*

Paul Dorian

The weather looks to remain quite warm during the next few days with a peak in temperatures likely to come on Saturday afternoon when highs could reach the middle 90’s. The weather will be somewhat unsettled as well this weekend and into the early part of next week with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

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6:00 AM | *Decent weather through the weekend...rain likely on Monday as low pressure heads this way*

Paul Dorian

The passage of a frontal system on Thursday will pave the way for more in the way of comfortable temperatures for at least the next few days. Much of the weekend should turn out to be pretty nice though clouds will be on the increase later Sunday ahead of the next system. Low pressure will head this way from the Central Plains on Monday likely bringing some rain to the Mid-Atlantic region and possibly a thunderstorm or two.

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6:00 AM | *Decent weather through the weekend...rain likely on Monday as low pressure heads this way*

Paul Dorian

The passage of a frontal system on Thursday will pave the way for more in the way of comfortable temperatures for at least the next few days. Much of the weekend should turn out to be pretty nice though clouds will be on the increase later Sunday ahead of the next system. Low pressure will head this way from the Central Plains on Monday likely bringing some rain to the Mid-Atlantic region and possibly a thunderstorm or two.

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6:00 AM | *Decent weather through the weekend...rain likely on Monday as low pressure heads this way*

Paul Dorian

The passage of a frontal system on Thursday will pave the way for more in the way of fairly comfortable temperatures for at least the next few days. Much of the weekend should turn out to be pretty nice though clouds will be on the increase later Sunday ahead of the next system. Low pressure will head this way from the Central Plains on Monday likely bringing some rain to the Mid-Atlantic region and possibly a thunderstorm or two.

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6:00 AM | *Very warm and humid today with a gusty wind...occasional showers and maybe a strong thunderstorm*

Paul Dorian

An incoming frontal system will keep it unsettled around here today and occasional showers and maybe a thunderstorm…any storm can be on the strong side. In addition to the threat for rain, today will feature warmer, and more humid conditions, and the winds will become quite noticeable gusting from a southwesterly direction past 30 mph or so. The passage of the frontal system later tonight will open the door for some decent June weather for the Mid-Atlantic region in the Friday and Saturday time frame and then clouds should increase on Sunday ahead of a possible rain soaking event on Monday.

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6:00 AM | *Very warm and humid today with a gusty wind...occasional showers and maybe a strong thunderstorm*

Paul Dorian

An incoming frontal system will keep it unsettled around here today and occasional showers and maybe a thunderstorm…any storm can be on the strong side. In addition to the threat for rain, today will feature warmer, and more humid conditions, and the winds will become quite noticeable gusting from a southwesterly direction past 30 mph or so. The passage of the frontal system later tonight will open the door for some decent June weather for the Mid-Atlantic region in the Friday and Saturday time frame and then clouds should increase on Sunday ahead of a possible rain soaking event on Monday.

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6:00 AM | *Very warm and humid today with a gusty wind...occasional showers and maybe a strong thunderstorm*

Paul Dorian

An incoming frontal system will keep it unsettled around here today and occasional showers and maybe a thunderstorm…any storm can be on the strong side. In addition to the threat for rain, today will feature warmer, and more humid conditions, and the winds will become quite noticeable gusting from a southwesterly direction past 30 mph or so. The passage of the frontal system later tonight will open the door for some decent June weather for the Mid-Atlantic region in the Friday and Saturday time frame and then clouds should increase on Sunday ahead of a possible soaking rain event on Monday.

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Arctic temperatures running at historically low levels as we begin the summer season…portions of the Atlantic Ocean have cooled quite noticeably in the past year…perhaps signals of a changing AMO

Paul Dorian

The summer season is upon us, and probabilities are quite high that overall temperatures in the Arctic region will be at or below normal if long-term trends hold true. In fact, temperatures in the Arctic region during the first half of June are at historically low levels when compared to any year back to 1958 which is when data records began for this area. Interestingly, water temperatures in portions of the Atlantic Ocean have cooled off quite noticeably during the past year or so and cooler-than-normal water in the Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic can have an inhibiting effect on tropical activity. Perhaps this change in water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the drastic start to the summer season with respect to temperatures in the Arctic is signaling an upcoming change in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which has been in a “positive” phase since the middle 1990’s.

“Normal” temperatures in the Arctic region during the summer season are right around the 32 degree (F) freezing mark and as long as temperatures average at or below normal, additional melting of Arctic sea ice will have its limitations. Meanwhile, the other nine months of the year in the Arctic region have consistently featured above normal temperatures in recent years. One possible explanation of this persistent temperature pattern in the Arctic region featuring nearly normal to below-normal summertime conditions and warmer-than-normal weather during the coldest nine months of the year is increased levels of water vapor in the atmosphere.

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