1:20 PM (Monday) | *Early season Arctic blast brings record-breaking cold and accumulating snow to the western and central US…portions of the Northeast US could see a changeover to snow at week’s end*
Paul Dorian
A widespread Arctic blast has sent temperatures to well below-normal levels across much of the central and western US. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
While the Atlantic Basin tropical scene remains active, an Arctic blast has brought record-breaking cold to portions of the western and central US as well as some unusual early season accumulating snow. In fact, the accumulating snow will take place all the way down to New Mexico and Texas over the next 48 hours or so with some spots likely receiving a foot or more. Meanwhile, the remains of Tropical Storm “Zeta” are likely to produce significant rainfall across the Tennessee Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US from Thursday into Friday after making a mid-week landfall in the central Gulf coastal region. By later Friday, some of the cold air from this Arctic Blast will makes its way into the Northeast US and it could result in a changeover to snow in interior, higher elevation locations as moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm “Zeta” passes through the region.
Numerous observing stations experienced record or near record low temperatures this morning across the central and western US and, in some cases, their lowest temperatures ever in the month of October. Map courtesy coolwx.com, NOAA
Arctic cold and accumulating snow
The cold is quite impressive today across the Northern Rockies in this unusual early season Arctic air outbreak. In Cheyenne, Wyoming, for example, the morning low temperature of 1°F was the coldest temperature this early in the season since records began there in the 1870’s. Another example of the extreme cold took place in Salt Lake City, Utah where the low temperature bottomed out at 20 degrees which broke a record that stood for 142 years (since 1878). In fact, numerous sites across the western and central US broke low temperature records this morning and, in some cases, their lowest October temperatures ever were observed. One final note of interest, the -31°F temperature reported by the Lyman, WY, Coop observer this morning represents the earliest -30°F reading on record for any official climate station in the Lower 48 in any year. The previous earliest -30°F reading was Oct 29, 1917 (Source: NWS, Salt Lake City).
Not only is there some unusual accumulating snow in the central and western US, North America as a whole is experiencing well above normal snow extent for this particular date in the latter part of October.
In terms of snow, reports are coming in from the Colorado Rockies of as much as a foot and a half (e.g., Walsenburg, CO) and there was snow still falling at mid-day. The next few days can see as much as a foot of snow in places like Santa Fe, New Mexico and as much as 7 or 8 inches in Albuquerque (NM) and Amarillo (TX). Even El Paso, Texas might see an inch of two of snow in coming days. Earlier in this extended cold spell, there was some impressive accumulating snow from the interior Northwest to the Northern Plains. For example, Great Falls, Montana experienced its snowiest “one-day” ever in the month of October and also its greatest “two-day” snowfall total ever. In Alexandria, Minnesota, the snowfall this month has already made it the most ever for the month of October.
Tropical Storm “Zeta” is on the verge of attaining hurricane status and will make a likely mid-week landfall in the central Gulf coastal region. After that, the remains of “Zeta” could result in a significant rain event across the Tennessee Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. There is a chance that a changeover to snow takes place in parts of the Northeast US on Friday. Image courtesy NOAA, College of DuPage
Remnants of “Zeta” to produce a significant rain event and perhaps a changeover to snow
While the western and central US experience unusual cold and snow, the Atlantic Basin is still featuring tropical activity. “Zeta” is now classified as a tropical storm in the northwestern part of the Caribbean Sea and it won’t take much to attain hurricane status. This system is likely to crossover the northeastern part of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday – perhaps as a category 1 hurricane – and then head towards the central Gulf coastal region where landfall is likely late Wednesday.
There is a pretty decent chance on Friday for a changeover from rain to snow in some interior, higher elevation locations of the Northeast US. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
After landfall, the remains of “Zeta” will turn northeast and a significant rain event is likely first across the Tennessee Valley and then in the Mid-Atlantic region from Thursday into Friday. At the same time, some of the colder air associated with this western and central US Arctic outbreak will makes its way across the Great Lakes and it’ll get wrapped into the remains of “Zeta” across the Northeast US. As a result, there is a decent chance that some of the higher elevation, interior sections of the Northeast US (e.g., Poconos, Catskills) experience a changeover from rain to snow at week’s end and there could even be some flakes all the way to coastal regions near New York City and southern New England.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube
Video discussion: