11:20 AM (Thurs.) | *Heavy rain with the remains of Zeta…cold tomorrow with snow in parts of the NE US…first freeze tomorrow night…a cold Halloween…another cold blast coming with “lake effect” snow*
Paul Dorian
A secondary low pressure system will form in the overnight hours just off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and it will pull in enough cold air to cause a changeover to snow in parts of the Northeast US and accumulations are on the table. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
The remains of Hurricane Zeta are now racing to the northeast and are resulting in a widespread heavy rain event today from the Appalachian Mountains to New England. This system will push off the Mid-Atlantic coastline early tonight, but a second low will form in the same general region by early tomorrow as a vigorous upper-level low arrives from the Tennessee Valley. This second storm will pull in colder air from the northwest by early tomorrow and the rain is likely to change to snow in interior, higher elevations sections of the Northeast US with small accumulations on the table in places like the Poconos (PA), Catskills, and Hudson Valley region of New York State. The first freeze will take place late tomorrow night in many spots of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US and a cold Halloween Day will follow. Another cold blast arrives on Sunday night and the first day of the new work week on Monday will feature windy and cold weather conditions with “lake effect” snows around the Great Lakes and to the western side of the Appalachians.
A widespread heavy rain event today associated with the remains of “Zeta”. Radar image courtesy University of Wisconsin, NOAA
Tropics
Hurricane Zeta came ashore late yesterday in the southeastern part of Louisiana as a category 2 storm. There remain numerous power outages in that area and these outages have spread into Georgia today with more than a million without power. Zeta was the 5th direct hit this season by a tropical storm in the state of Louisiana with many of the prior ones closer to the Texas/Louisiana border region to the west of yesterday’s landfall. Zeta marks the 27th named tropical system of the 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season and one more would tie the very active year of 2005. Indeed, there is now another tropical wave about to enter the Caribbean Sea and it could well become the “tie-breaking” (28th) named storm in coming days (would be named “Eta”).
The first hard freeze of the season is likely late Friday night/early Saturday in many parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. Map courtesy weathermodels.com, NOAA
Cold, snow
While the Atlantic Basin remains active in terms of tropical activity, the western and central US has gone through an unusual “winter-like” stretch with record-breaking cold and accumulating snow and ice. In fact, we may look back at the 7-day period from October 20 - October 26 as one with historic cold across the US as the preliminary numbers are rather staggering. As it stands, a whopping 3434 new daily low temperature records were set in this 7-day period, 234 new monthly low temperature records fell, and an amazing 114 all-time low temperature records were toppled. Furthermore, in many of these cases the records were not only “broken”, they were utterly obliterated. In addition to the cold and snow, ice became a major issue in Oklahoma where more than 300,000 are still without power. On Wednesday, Oklahoma City experienced their first ever October day in which temperatures did not rise above the freezing mark. The widespread snow extent across the country at this time of year is some of the highest ever seen for this stage of the young fall season.
Snow extent across the country is some of the highest ever seen for so early in the autumn season. Map courtesy weathermodels.com, NOAA
Meanwhile, the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US have been comparatively mild in recent days, but today’s heavy rain event is featuring cooler-than-normal conditions for this time of year (normal high is 65 at DCA, 63 at PHL, 61 at Central Park in NY). As a secondary storm forms off the Mid-Atlantic coastline later tonight, it’ll pull in colder air from the northwest and the rain is likely to change to snow in parts of the interior, higher-elevation locations of the Northeast US. In fact, there can be some small accumulations on Friday in places like the Poconos of NE PA, Catskills in NY and the Hudson Valley region (NY) and all the way to the coastline of southern New England. It is even possible that some flakes are seen on Friday in the northern and western suburbs of Philly and NYC.
Another cold blast will arrive on Sunday night in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and Monday promises to be a windy and cold day with “lake effect” snow across the Great Lakes and Appalachians. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
After this messy precipitation pulls off to the northeast late tomorrow, high pressure will quickly move overhead in the Northeast US and this will set the stage for the first freeze of the season in many areas by early Saturday morning. In some spots of the Mid-Atlantic region, this potential unusually early first freeze will make it the shortest growing season (i.e., time between the last freeze in May and this one) since 2002. A cold Halloween Day will follow on Saturday with temperatures well below-normal, but it will be dry for the trick-or-treaters.
Another cold blast arrives on Sunday night and Monday in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and this one will be accompanied by “lake effect” snows. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
After that, another strong cold front will move across the Great Lakes on Sunday and push through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US on Sunday night. Following the passage of this next cold front, yet another Arctic blast will arrive late Sunday night and the first day of the new work week on Monday will feature windy and cold conditions and there is likely to be “lake effect” snows across the Great Lakes. It is not out of the question that a few of these snow showers make it southeastward into the central Appalachians (e.g., central PA) on Monday and perhaps even to just to the north and west of the I-95 corridor. Temperatures could once again drop to or below freezing in much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US on Sunday night and Monday night as well during this 36-hour or so sharp cold snap.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube
Video discussion: