1:00 PM (Tues) | *Very active weather pattern setting up as cold air outbreaks continue through April…begins later today/tonight in the Mid-Atlantic with potential strong-to-severe thunderstorms*
Paul Dorian
Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms are likely in the Mid-Atlantic region from later today into Wednesday. This particular line of storms could produce strong-to-severe thunderstorms in the wee hours of the morning. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
A very active weather pattern is setting up for the next week or two partly as a result of continuing cold air outbreaks into the central and eastern US. These cold air outbreaks will combine with increasing warmth and moisture across the southern US to make it quite unstable on many days going forward in many parts of the nation. In the short-term, a warm front will generate showers and thunderstorms in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from later today into Wednesday and some of the storms that form can be on the strong-to-severe side. A strong cold front will then drop southeastward across the area later Thursday and it will be accompanied by showers, perhaps a strong thunderstorm, and increasing winds which will remain quite powerful on Thursday night and Friday. Another storm system could impact the Mid-Atlantic region late in the weekend or by the early part of next and then another system could follow a few days later in this unfolding very active weather pattern.
Details
A warm front is advancing slowly to the north and east today stretching from the Upper Midwest to the southern Mid-Atlantic. Showers and thunderstorms are pushing along this frontal boundary zone and it looks like there may be multiple bands that will impact the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from later today into Wednesday. Some of the storms that form in this pattern can be on the strong-to-severe side from later today into the day on Wednesday with the highest probability from southern PA to the DC metro region to the Delmarva Peninsula. Any strong storm can contain damaging wind gusts and potentially some small hail as the warm front advances slowly to the north and east. On Wednesday, temperatures will climb to warmer levels in the 70’s on the backside of the frontal system and there will be a continuing threat of showers and possible strong-to-severe thunderstorms in much of the Mid-Atlantic.
A strong cold front will arrive mid-day Thursday in the eastern US and it will be accompanied by showers and potential strong thunderstorms. Winds will also become a big factor and will continue quite strong on Thursday night and Friday. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
By Thursday, attention will shift from the warm front to an advancing strong cold front. This strong cold front will drop southeastward into the I-95 corridor during the mid-day to early afternoon hours accompanied by showers and perhaps a strong thunderstorm or two. Perhaps the bigger story will follow the frontal passage with powerful wind gusts of 40-50 mph likely in DC, Philly, and NYC from late Thursday into Friday. In addition, this frontal passage will usher in a much colder-than-normal air mass for this time of year and that may very well be the beginning of a rather sustained period of colder-than-normal weather for the central and eastern US for much of the second half of April.
The second half of April is looking colder-than-normal across the central and eastern US and these cold air outbreaks will contribute to an overall very active weather pattern. Maps courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
In fact, another cold air outbreak is destined to reach the eastern US during the early-to-middle part of next week. Before that cold air mass arrives , this unfolding active weather pattern is likely to result in another strong storm to deal with in the eastern US by the latter stages of the weekend. Looking even farther ahead, there are signs that the colder-than-normal trend in the central and eastern US will continue for much of the second half of April. These cold air outbreaks will combine with increasingly warm and humid air across the southern US to raise the chances for severe weather outbreaks in coming days as this overall active weather pattern continues.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
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