9:00 AM (Friday) | ****Gulf of Mexico the target region for two tropical storms****
Paul Dorian
Tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin normally ramps up this time of year as sea surface temperatures reach their peak with many areas in the Gulf of Mexico currently at or above 30 degrees C. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to a very active start and two systems are likely to have a high impact on the Gulf of Mexico by the early and middle parts of next week. One system is likely to cross over or right near the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico in the near-term and then push over the western part of the Gulf of Mexico and head towards the Texas/Louisiana border region. A second system is likely headed near or over the northern Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico, Haiti/Dominican Republic, and Cuba in the near-term and then perhaps through the Florida Straits before entering the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Both of these systems are likely to intensify into named tropical storms status – one would be “Laura” and the other “Marco” – and perhaps even to hurricane status before possible landfalls next week as high sea surface temperatures will aid in further intensification.
The two tropical depressions (#13, #14) are captured in this IR satellite image of the Atlantic Basin and there is a third tropical wave near the west coast of Africa. Image courtesy NOAA, University of Wisconsin
A key factor in intensification prospects: sea surface temperatures
Sea surface temperatures are crucial in both the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin and they tend to reach their peak during the latter part of August or the first half of September. Typically, tropical activity ramps up during the latter stages of August and reaches a peak in mid-September and this is largely due to the correlation with the annual rise in sea surface temperatures. In fact, about 2/3rds of all Atlantic Basin hurricane activity occurs between August 20th and October 10th. Current sea surface temperatures are plenty sufficient in the tropical Atlantic to support the generation and intensification of tropical cyclones with much of the Gulf of Mexico experiencing > 30° C - some of the warmest water anywhere around the world.
The latest official positions of tropical depressions 13 and 14 are seen on this map as well as an “X” at the location of a third tropical wave near Africa’s west coast. Map courtesy NOAA
Current tropical activity
Tropical Depression #14 (Caribbean Sea)
Tropical Depression #14 is struggling at this time as it is interacting with the land mass of Honduras in Central America and it has encountered some dry air in its vicinity. This system has also slowed down considerably from yesterday with current movement to the WNW at 12 mph and maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. It is currently under the influence of a Bermuda high pressure system that is steering it to the west, but ultimately, an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico should become the dominant player in its storm track. As such, it is likely to head to the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico and then take a turn more to the northwest and over the western Gulf and potentially right towards the Texas/Louisiana border region. As it pushes over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, this tropical depression is quite likely to undergo additional intensification – perhaps even to hurricane levels before making landfall.
Tropical Depression #13 (Atlantic Ocean)
A second tropical depression is getting better organized and is currently moving WNW at 21 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. This system is going to be under the influence of strong high pressure ridging strengthening over the central Atlantic in coming days and its track could take it over the northern Caribbean Islands of Puerto Rico, Haiti/Dominican Republic, and Cuba and towards the Straits of Florida before pushing into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week - perhaps on its way to the central Gulf coastal region. Environmental conditions should become more favorable for intensification in the near-term and it’ll very likely reach named tropical storm status before the currently rather disorganized system over the western Caribbean Sea. As it pushes over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, this tropical depression may undergo additional intensification – perhaps even to hurricane status before making landfall.
Final notes
The record for the earliest named “L” storm in the Atlantic Basin is “Luis” on August 29, 1995 and that is sure to be beat with either one of these two tropical depressions. It is certainly on the table that both of these systems will be over the Gulf of Mexico at the same time during the early-to-middle parts of next week and one of the unknowns at this time is exactly how they may interact with each other. The most Atlantic Basin named storms to make landfall in the continental US (CONUS) by the end of August is six which happened in 1886 and 1916. This year the CONUS has already had five landfalling named systems: Bertha, Cristobal, Fay, Hanna and Isaias. While only two of the landfalling systems this year have been at hurricane strength (Hanna, Isaias), five of the six named storms that made landfall by the end of August in 1886 did so at hurricane strength, including the especially devastating Category 4 “Indianola” hurricane which was one of the most intense ever to strike the US. (Credit for this info to Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University).
Buckle up…the rest of August and at least the first part of September will be a very active period in the tropical Atlantic Basin. For all residents along the Gulf coastal region from Florida-to-Texas, make preparations this weekend for a possible “double-strike” by the early and middle parts of next week.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com
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