2:00 PM | ***Blizzard/severe weather today…an icy mess in parts of I-95 corridor early Thursday…significant snows interior Mid-Atl./NE US…widespread Arctic outbreak in US later next week***
Paul Dorian
An Arctic outbreak will take place later next week in the US and it will be quite widespread and quite impressively cold relative-to-normal. The core of the cold air mass could reach the central and eastern US just in time for Christmas weekend (the last frame in this loop of 850 mb temperature anomalies from the 12Z GEFS is on Sunday, December 25th (Christmas Day). Maps courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
A major storm system continues to wreak havoc across the nation today with blizzard conditions in the Northern Plains and severe weather in the south-central US. This same system dumped 6 feet of snow over the weekend in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of eastern California. As this initial storm system grinds to a halt over the Upper Midwest later this week, a secondary storm will form near the eastern seaboard. This system will bring significant snows to interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast from Thursday into Friday while the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC is likely to experience a wintry mix at the onset of the event followed by heavy (plain) rain and strong winds.
Looking ahead, an Arctic outbreak appears to be headed to the US later next week and the biting cold will likely last right through Christmas weekend in the central and eastern states. Arctic cold has already become well established across much of Europe and Asia which is often a foreshadowing of conditions to come in the US. The cold pattern will remain quite active later next week with storm chances increasing the chances for a white Christmas in much of the northern US.
Precipitation arrives in the DC metro region in the wee hours of Thursday morning, early-to-mid morning in Philly and surrounding suburbs, and likely by about mid-day in NYC. The arrival time in the DC metro region raises concern for an ugly icy mess for the morning commute time and the wintry mess can reach Philly in time for the latter stages of the morning commute. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
This week’s impactful major storm system
The weather today ranges from heavy snow up across the Northern Plains to severe weather including isolated tornadoes in the south-central states of Texas and Oklahoma. Heavy snow and powerful winds will spread eastward over the next 24 hours or so into Minnesota and then to the northern half of Wisconsin as the primary surface low pressure system grinds to a halt. This initial low pressure will not be able to penetrate any farther to the north and east as it will run into a “brick wall” in the atmosphere with strong high-latitude blocking situated over central Canada. This action will lead to re-development of surface low pressure near the eastern seaboard on Thursday and this system will then intensify as it moves over the Delmarva Peninsula and then to coastal New England.
An icy mess is on the table for the DC metro region early Thursday morning and the icing problems can extend up into the Philly metro area as well. Map courtesy Canadian Met Centre, Pivotal Weather
The precipitation field associated with the weakening initial storm system and re-developing low will impact the Mid-Atlantic region by early Thursday. There is likely to be enough cold air around for an icy mess in the DC metro region early on Thursday with the precipitation likely beginning in the wee hours of the morning. A wintry mix is likely to develop across Philly and its suburbs between about 7 and 10 am and then reach NYC by late morning or mid-day. As the storm intensifies over the Delmarva Peninsula, increasing easterly winds will pump in slightly milder air to the immediate I-95 corridor resulting in plain rain during the afternoon and evening and some of the rain can be heavy. In interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US, significant snowfall is anticipated with several inches on the table from West Virginia/far western Virginia to upstate PA and NY to interior New England.
European/Asian cold…next week’s widespread Arctic blast into the US
A large part of northern Europe from the UK to the Scandinavian countries is currently experiencing Arctic cold and heavy snow is falling in many places. The Arctic cold extends to Russia/Siberia as well with some parts of Siberia suffering through some extremely cold conditions. Often this time of year, a cold pattern will become established over Europe/Asia before it does so in the US, and signs are pointing to the likelihood for an Arctic outbreak in the US later next week with the cold likely sticking around in much of the central and eastern US through Christmas weekend. In fact, it is possible that Christmas Day is the coldest one since 2000 for many spots in the eastern half of the nation. The overall weather pattern should remain quite active as well later next week into Christmas weekend and this will certainly increase the chance for many in the northern US to experience a white Christmas, but more on those chances in coming days – a lot to go through before we get there.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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