1:50 PM | **Weekend storm can bring rain, wind as far north as the southern Mid-Atlantic…accumulating snow in the higher elevations of the Appalachian Mountains**
Paul Dorian
The weekend storm system will feature an area of strong vertical motion which can lead to “dynamic cooling” in the atmosphere in some areas and perhaps a mixing with or a changeover of plain rain to accumulating snow and/or sleet. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
An active weather pattern continues across the central and eastern US with one system producing accumulating snow today in the Upper Midwest and then a second system will produce rain, ice, and snow in parts of the eastern US this weekend. One upper-level wave of energy heads to the Great Lakes region today and a second one will dive to the Deep South over the next couple of days. Low pressure is going to form near the Southeast US coastline later Saturday and it will then likely grind its way to the southern Mid-Atlantic coastline by later Sunday. While there will not be any kind of real cold air in place, the chance for significant accumulating snow this weekend is certainly there for the higher elevation locations of the Appalachian Mountains where over a foot can fall.
Snowfall over the next 24 hours with system #1 will be concentrated over the Upper Midwest, upstate New York and northern New England according to the latest forecast of the NAM computer model. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Near-term accumulating snow, high winds
An active weather pattern continues across the US with two impactful systems for the central and eastern states. Low pressure is currently moving to the Great Lakes region and will produce accumulating snow in a swath from northern Missouri to northern Michigan over the next 6-12 hours. In fact, some spots in northeastern Iowa and southwestern Wisconsin can receive as much as 6 inches of snow before the system winds down later tonight. By late tonight and on Friday, accumulating snow will shift to upstate New York and in the northern part of New England. Meanwhile, to the south and east of the storm track, high winds will become a big issue from later today into Friday with 60 mph gusts possible in, for example, the zone from Indiana/Ohio to western New York State.
Low pressure can make its way to the southern Mid-Atlantic coastline by later Sunday with rain in the coastal plain and significant snow is possible in the higher elevations of the Appalachian Mountains. map courtesy NOAA, Pivotal Weather
Weekend storm system…elevation an important factor for snow accumulations
A follow-up system will impact parts of the eastern US this weekend. Strong upper-level low pressure will slide through the Deep South early this weekend and then take a slight turn to the north and east. This low aloft and its associated strong vorticity maximum will help to spawn surface low pressure near the Southeast US coastline early in the weekend and then this low will slowly grind its way to the southern Mid-Atlantic coastline later in the weekend. Normally, this kind of a storm track in early February could result in some accumulating snow for the Mid-Atlantic. However, cold air of any significance will be lacking and the result will likely be mainly a rain event for the coastal plain from Route I-95 to the Atlantic coastline and winds can become quite strong as well.
Despite the lack of any real cold air, there can be significant snow accumulations during this weekend event in the higher elevations of the Appalachian Mountains where the air will become cold enough to support a changeover of rain to sleet and snow. The areas with the highest probability of substantial accumulating snow will include eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina, eastern West Virginia, and the western part of Virginia where over a foot of snow can fall. In fact, it can end up snowing as far to the south in those higher elevations as northern Georgia and upstate South Carolina. In past weather events with similar atmospheric circumstances, places like Mount Mitchell in western North Carolina experienced excessive (wet) snow accumulations on the order of a couple of feet so be on the lookout for that kind of event in some of these higher mountainous areas.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
Video discussion: