10:30 AM | **Much warmer weather pattern begins early next week across the eastern half of the nation coinciding pretty closely with the transition from April to May**
Paul Dorian
Temperatures dropped to the 30’s early today in many suburban locations of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US and there was some patchy frost. There can be a repeat performance in this same area early Tuesday as a chilly air mass dominates the scene as we work through the current 5-day time period. Map courtesy Canadian Met Centre, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
There have been occasional cold air outbreaks from Canada into the Northeast US and Mid-Atlantic region during the month of April and this week will be no exception. In fact, low temperatures this morning were in the 30’s across many suburban locations along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with scattered frost in some areas. Another chilly air mass will push into the northeastern states at mid-week following the passage of a strong cold front and early Thursday morning is likely to feature more low temperatures in the 30’s with patchy frost again on the table.
Next week, however, will feature a big-time warmup across the eastern half of the nation coinciding pretty well with the transition from April into May. Temperatures can climb well up into the 70’s by Sunday afternoon in places like DC, Philly, and New York City and 80+ degrees is possible for highs on Monday and the upcoming pattern change will result in far less frequent outbreaks of chilly air from Canada into the US.
The passage of a cold front at mid-week will usher in another chilly air mass to the Northeast US and Mid-Atlantic region for the second half of the week. Temperatures by early Thursday morning are likely to be in the 30’s across many suburban locations to the north and west of I-95. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Details
The new work week started off quite chilly in the northeastern part of the nation with temperatures in the 30’s in many suburban locations along the I-95 corridor and even some scattered frost. The coldest spot this morning is likely to have been in the Canaan Valley ski resort region of West Virginia where temperatures dropped to as low as 13 degrees. This is not the end of the chilly mornings in the Northeast US and Mid-Atlantic region. There can be a repeat performance late tonight/early tomorrow with the 30’s being recorded for overnight lows in many suburban locations along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and again scattered frost is a possibility. Furthermore, there will be the passage of a cold front at mid-week which will usher in a reinforcing chilly air mass for the second half of the week. Indeed, temperatures are likely to drop into the 30’s by early Thursday in many suburban locations where they can be more frost and similar possibilities exist for early Friday as well.
The overall temperature pattern may flip across the nation by the first week of May with warmer-than-normal conditions on average across the eastern half and colder-than-normal in the western states. Map courtesy Canadian Met Centre, tropicaltidbits.com
By the end of the week, big changes will begin to take shape across the middle of the country that eventually will translate to changes in the eastern states. A strong southerly flow of air will develop from the Gulf of Mexico and into the Plains leading to noticeably warmer and more humid conditions. This influx of warm, humid air can, in fact, be the catalyst for late week/early weekend severe weather across the Plains and Mississippi Valley region.
By the latter part of the upcoming weekend, some of this warmer air will spread east and temperatures could climb well up into the 70’s by Sunday afternoon in DC, Philly and NYC metro regions and 80+ degrees is possible in the I-95 corridor by Monday afternoon. It looks like once this warmer air arrives in the eastern US, it will be reluctant to give up its ground. As a result, from this vantage point, next week is certainly looking warmer than this week across much of the eastern half of the nation and this will coincide pretty well with the transition on the calendar from April to May (next Wednesday).
While the eastern US and Canada experience below-normal temperatures for much of this week, it will be even more impressively cold across Europe with 2-meter temperatures significantly below the normal for the latter part of April. Map courtesy ECMWF, Weather Bell Analytics (Joe Bastardi, X)
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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