12:00 PM | ***Widespread bitter cold air overspreads the nation next week...storm threats as well...wintry weather impacts possible for Inauguration Day and for the Deep South (again)***
Paul Dorian
Inauguration Day (Monday) could be awfully cold across a large part of the nation including in the Washington, D.C. metro region where outdoor activities are currently planned. Map courtesy ECMWF, weathermodels.com
Overview
This will be a relatively quiet week across the nation despite another Arctic blast that arrives tonight in the eastern states, but next week looks like a different story. Widespread bitter cold air looks like it will overspread the nation next week and there can be multiple storm threats as well. Temperatures are likely to fall to far below-normal levels across much of the nation in what is from a climatological point-of-view, already the coldest week of the year in many areas.
A deep upper-level trough is likely to set up next week from central Canada to the south-central US and the overall pattern will allow for the transport of cold air masses from northern Canada into the US. In fact, there may even be some “cross-polar” flow which would allow for Siberian air to makes its way onto the North America side of the North Pole and into Canada and the US. Map courtesy ECMWF, weathermodels.com
Bitter cold next week and storm threats
The colder-than-normal weather pattern that began earlier this month for the central and eastern US not only looks like it will be extend well into the second half of the month, but it may also go to extreme levels. There are strong signs that the upper-level pattern across North America will evolve into one that can produce cross-polar flow which could allow for Siberian air to impact the Canadian and US side of the North Pole in coming days. By the early part of next week, a strong upper-level trough will develop across central Canada and extend southward into the south-central US. This large-scale upper-level trough will be the result of a phasing together of the northern jet stream with the southern jet and this will help to transport Arctic air from northern Canada into the US. A large part of the nation is likely to feature well below-normal temperatures later next week and this comes at a time when average temperatures are at their lowest levels in most areas. In other words, far below-normal temperatures during the 3rd week of January can certainly produce some dangerous cold. The leading edge of the Arctic air outbreak will be a strong cold front that should makes its way into the eastern states over the upcoming weekend.
Widespread bitter cold could grip much of the nation by early next week with temperatures at well below-normal levels for what is statistically the coldest time of the year. Map courtesy ECMWF, Weather Bell Analytics
The progression of that cold front will likely slow down across the southeastern states and this likely opens the door for low pressure to form along the frontal boundary zone. As such, there is the chance that low pressure will push northeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic region by late in the weekend or early next week – and right into an increasingly cold air mass. In other words, this scenario could result in snow for parts of the Mid-Atlantic region by later Sunday or Monday which happens to be Inauguration Day.
There can be a storm system early next week in the Mid-Atlantic region at the front end of a transition to some very cold weather. Low pressure may form along the incoming Arctic front which may stall for awhile across the southeastern states. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
The early week storm threat would come as we transition into the bitter cold across the eastern states, an additional storm threat (or two) could take place later next week. And - as with last week’s setup - frozen precipitation may be on the table for the southern states as Arctic air could again penetrate way down to the Gulf coast.
The southern US experienced snow and ice from last week’s storm system and could be in line for more frozen precipitation at some point later next week. This forecast map depicts probabilities of greater than one inch of snow by later next week and the threat is certainly “non-zero” into the Deep South. Map courtesy ECMWF, Weather Bell Analytics
Inauguration Day
In term of any potential impact on Inauguration Day and planned outdoor events, two weather parameters will have to be monitored. The first is the cold which will likely be increasing in its intensity around that time though the coldest may come shortly thereafter. In addition, snow could be a factor in Washington, D.C. depending on the potential development of low pressure across the southeastern states.
The most recent Inauguration Day that was impacted considerably by the weather took place in January of 1985 for Ronald Reagan’s second term. It was so cold on that day in Washington, D.C. with an Arctic outbreak throughout the eastern states that all outdoor activities were cancelled. The outside temperature at noon on January 20th was only 7°F and wind chills during the afternoon were in the -10 to -20°F range. That particular cold wave during the latter part of January in 1985 followed a major stratospheric warming event that got underway in December of 1984.
On the eve of JFK’s inauguration in 1961, 8 inches of snow fell on Washington, D.C. causing the most crippling traffic jam that the District had ever seen up to that point with hundreds of cars abandoned. By sunrise on the 20th, the snow had ended and the skies were clearing, but the day remained bitter cold. An army of men worked all night to clear Pennsylvania Avenue and despite the cold, a large crowd turned out for the swearing-in ceremony and inaugural parade. At noon, the temperature was only 22°F and the wind was blowing from the northwest at 19 mph making it feel like the temperature was 7°F above zero.
For some excellent information on Inauguration Day weather visit this NWS site.
Stay tuned...next week is going to be quite interesting.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube
Video discussion: