**Strong-to-severe thunderstorms in the Ohio Valley/southern Mid-Atlantic...downpours and damaging wind gusts on the table...more severe weather to deal with this weekend in central states**

Strong-to-severe thunderstorms are possible later today and tonight across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic which can contain downpours as indicated by this forecast map of radar reflectivities for 10PM, Monday, April 14th. In addition, vivid lightning and damaging wind gusts are on the table later tonight with this thunderstorm activity. Map courtesy NOAA, Weather Bell Analytics, Tony Pann (X)

Overview

We’re not quite done yet with the cold air intrusions into the northeastern part of the nation and the next strong cold front can produce some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity tonight in portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic region with downpours, vivid lightning and damaging wind gusts on the table. Following the passage of a strong cold front, the winds will become a big factor on Tuesday and Tuesday night with gusts of 40 mph or so from a west-to-northwest direction. The risk of severe weather will increase this weekend across the nation’s mid-section as another clash develops between incoming cold, dry air to the west and warm, humid air to the east.

Strong-to-severe thunderstorms are possible later today and tonight across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic which can contain vivid lightning displays as indicated by this forecast map of “lightning flash density” for 10PM, Monday, April 14th. Map courtesy NOAA, Weather Bell Analytics, Tony Pann (X)

Threat of strong-to-severe thunderstorms later today/tonight

A warm front lifted north through the Mid-Atlantic region earlier today and a strong cold front will approach the region later tonight. This combination and an upper-level trough will likely set off the development of thunderstorms later this afternoon in the Ohio valley and these thunderstorms are likely to spread east early tonight. Thunderstorms have the capability of reaching strong-to-severe levels later today and tonight across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic region with the possibility of hail, vivid lightning, and damaging wind gusts. There is even the possibility for isolated tornadoes to form later today and tonight though a widespread outbreak is not anticipated. The highest chance in the Mid-Atlantic region for severe thunderstorm activity will be to the south of the PA/MD border though this threat cannot be ruled across parts of southern and eastern PA during the late evening hours.

Winds will become quite a noticeable factor on Tuesday and Tuesday night in the Mid-Atlantic region following the passage of a strong cold front. Gusts of 40 mph or so are possible from a west-to-northwest direction and the winds will stay quite strong into Wednesday to go along with colder-than-normal conditions. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Following the passage of a strong cold front late tonight, the pressure gradient will tighten on Tuesday between strong low pressure off to the north and east and incoming high pressure off to the south and west. As a result, winds will increase on Tuesday from a west-to-northwest direction possibly gusting past 40 mph or so and strong winds will continue on Tuesday night and Wednesday. A chilly air mass for this time of year will pour into the Mid-Atlantic region with well below-normal temperatures expected at mid-week that will give way to much milder conditions by week’s end and the early part of the weekend.

A “battle zone” may form this weekend across the nation’s mid-section with cold, dry air to the west and warm, more humid air to the east potentially leading to a severe weather outbreak…something to monitor in coming days. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Severe weather outbreak possible this weekend into next week across the central states

As has been a repeating pattern in recent weeks, the atmosphere will likely set up for another battle this weekend across the central states between cold, dry air to the west and warm, more humid air to the east. Strong surface low pressure will likely form in the central states adding fuel to the fire and severe weather could very well break out this weekend and that threat can potentially extend into next week...something to monitor in coming days.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com

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