****Severe weather threats next few days...scorching heat coming to the DC-to-Boston corridor from later this weekend into at least the middle of next week with 100 degrees on the table****

Very strong upper-level ridging will form in the eastern states by early next week leading to a surge of high heat in the DC-to-Boston corridor. This coming heat wave can result in temperatures at or slightly above the 100-degree mark in the I-95 corridor in the Sunday-Wednesday time period. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather

Overview

There is a lot going on in the world of weather across the nation with severe weather threats each of the next few days and scorching heat is on the horizon for the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US. In the near-term, severe weather will be a major concern today in the nation’s mid-section (Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska) and then that threat zone will shift eastward on Wednesday to the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and then to the eastern states on Thursday.

In terms of temperatures, there has been unusually cool weather across the northeastern part of the nation during the past few days and it continues today…this will be just a fond memory in a week’s time as sweltering heat is on the way. Actually, temperatures will surge to much warmer levels on Wednesday and Thursday, but the intense and more sustained heat is coming for the period from later this weekend into at least the middle of next week and 100-degree highs are possible all along the DC-to-Boston corridor.

Severe weather threat today focuses on the nation’s mid-section (left) and then shifts eastward on Wednesday to the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys (middle). Finally, the threat zone area shifts to the eastern states on Thursday (right) as the strong frontal system pushes towards the eastern seaboard. Maps courtesy NOAA/Storm Prediction Center

Severe weather threats

The last several weeks have featured numerous severe weather outbreaks across the nation largely because of the continuation of colder-than-normal air masses pushing into the US either from Canada or the eastern Pacific Ocean. This topsy-turvy kind of temperature pattern has created “clash zones” and one exists today across the middle of the country with colder-than-normal air located behind a frontal system that is pushing southeastward across the Rocky Mountain States and into much warmer and more humid air out ahead of it. The “battle zone” region today that is setting up for severe thunderstorm activity (likely to include a few tornadoes) will be centered on the nation’s mid-section across Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska. The strong frontal system and severe weather threat zone will shift eastward on Wednesday with an enhanced risk later tomorrow expected to be across the Mississippi and Ohio Valley regions. On Thursday, this same strong front will push into the eastern states and strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be a threat across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US to go along with uncomfortably warm and humid conditions.

One final point on the severe weather threat in the Mid-Atlantic, while it may increase to its highest level in the near-term during the afternoon and evening hours on Thursday, there is the chance for some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity later today and again later tomorrow in at least some parts of the region. In addition, any rain that falls later today and also on Wednesday can be heavy at times and this would come on top of well-saturated grounds in many areas including, for example, the DC metro region and areas to its immediate west (Virginia, West Virginia). In other words, watch out for localized flooding each of the next few days; especially, across the western Mid-Atlantic.

A surge of heat (orange, red) reaches the eastern states during the early and middle parts of next week as strong upper-level ridging of high pressure develops overhead. Meanwhile, cooler-than-normal conditions (blue) dominate the western states as an upper-level low develops in that area. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather

From unusually cool weather to scorching heat

The high temperature on both Sunday and Monday at Philly’s International Airport (PHL) was confined to the middle 60’s - a rarity indeed for the middle of June - and today continues to feature below-normal temperatures. Unfortunately, this cool weather is likely to be just a fond memory by the time we get to the early part of next week. In fact, many in the Mid-Atlantic region may wish it were this cool again as soon as tomorrow afternoon as temperatures should climb to uncomfortably warm levels on Wednesday and Thursday and humidity will become a noticeable factor as well. While temperatures will surge during the next couple of days compared to recent days, the more intense and sustained heat is coming for the period from later this weekend into at least the middle of next week and 100-degree highs are possible all along the DC-to-Boston corridor...perhaps even on multiple occasions.

A recent model run by the Euro features high temperatures at or slightly above the 100-degree mark in Newark, New Jersey during the early AND middle parts of next week. While this is likely to be overdone, it sends an indisputable signal that scorching heat is on the way for the northeastern part of the nation. Histogram plot courtesy ECMWF, Weather Bell Analytics (Meteorologist Joe Bastardi, X)

Very strong ridging in the upper part of the atmosphere that has been generally parked over the western states in recent days will push eastward this weekend and end up directly overhead in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by the early part of next week. As a result, the sweltering heat will first be felt early this weekend across the central Plains, Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes (e.g., Chicago in the middle 90’s on Saturday), and then the intense heat will reach the eastern states on Sunday (e.g., DC in the middle 90’s on Sunday). That very strong ridge of high pressure aloft will be a slow-mover and likely remain located over the northeastern states into at least the middle of next week. This should translate to perhaps a 4- or 5-day period of intense heat all along the DC-to-Boston corridor and 100-degree highs are on the table for multiple days.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com

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