**Significant rain event on the table later next week in the eastern US and tropical moisture may play a role...same system can produce rain/severe weather Deep South/Miss. Valley early-to-mid week**
Paul Dorian
Deep upper-level trough of low pressure will slide across the country next week and take on a “negative-tilt” when it arrives in the Ohio Valley at week’s end. This development will enhance upward motion across the Mid-Atlantic region which supports the idea of a big-time rain event…something we haven’t seen in many weeks. Map courtesy ECMWF, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
On many occasions, it seems as if the overall weather pattern changes with the flip of the calendar from one month to another and, in this case, big changes may be coming to the southern and eastern US during the first week of November. It has been very dry during the past couple of weeks across many southern and eastern states with virtually no rain in many locations. A strong system will cross the nation next week and it may team with some tropical moisture over the western Atlantic to produce a significant rain event in the eastern US late next week and there can be severe weather to precede across much of the Deep South and Mississippi Valley.
It has been extremely dry during the past couple of weeks across much of the southern and eastern US, but the overall weather pattern changes as we begin the new month of November and significant rainfall is on the table in many of these areas. Map courtesy ECMWF, tropicaltidbits.com
Details
Just two years ago, the entire month of October featured virtually no rainfall at all in places like Philadelphia, PA and New York City (Central Park) and, while not as bad, this October is likely be end up with no rainfall in these same areas during the last two weeks of the month. The calendar flips this weekend from October to November and as seems to happen quite often, the overall weather pattern looks to change during the beginning of the new month. In this case, much different is headed to the southern and eastern states where it has been quite dry and quiet during the past couple of weeks.
Tropical moisture over the western Atlantic Ocean may “feed” into a strong low pressure system that will travel across the nation next week…possible result is a big-time rain event in the eastern US later next week. Map courtesy ECMWF, tropicaltidbits.com
A strong system will push from the eastern Pacific Ocean to the western US by early next week and will then continue on a path that will likely result in an impact across much of the nation during following days. By the middle of next week, a deep upper-level trough will likely push across the south-central US, and it’ll team up with an upper-level jet streak to raise the chance of heavy rain and severe weather in portions of the Deep South and Mississippi Valley region.
An upper-level jet streak will contribute to a rain and potential severe weather event across the Deep South/Mississippi Valley during the early and middle parts of next week. Map courtesy ECMWF, tropicaltidbits.com
By later next week, this strong upper-level trough will slide across the Tennessee Valley and start to push to the northeast as it heads towards the Ohio Valley. At this time, the upper-level trough axis associated with the low will begin to take on a “negative-tilt” (i.e., axis oriented from northwest-to-southeast) and this will enhance upward motion across the Mid-Atlantic region - adding support to the idea that indeed a significant rain event is possible. In fact, another supporting factor for significant rain in the eastern US later next week may be a batch of tropical moisture that may just ride up along the eastern seaboard and feed right into this overall strong system.
Stay tuned...nothing is guaranteed at this point, and significant rain is always a somewhat risky forecast when in a very dry pattern; however, a big-time rain event is actually on the table for the southern and eastern US as we begin the new month of November.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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