Solar cycle 24 has turned out to be historically weak with the lowest number of sunspots since cycle 14 peaked more than a century ago in 1906 and by some measures, it is the third weakest since regular observations began around 1755. This historically weak solar cycle continues a weakening trend in solar irradiance output since solar cycle 21 peaked around 1980 and the sun is fast-approaching the next solar minimum. The last solar minimum lasted from 2008 to 2009 and the sun was as quiet during that time as it has been since 1978. The sun is likely to enter the next solar minimum phase within three years or so. The sun has been spotless for 26% of the time in 2017 (90 days) and the blank look should increase in frequency over the next couple of years leading into the next solar minimum.
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A major pattern change is going to begin on Wednesday in the Mid-Atlantic region and it will result in a period of sustained colder-than-normal temperatures that will assure a much different December compared to the last five. This pattern change to cold will also include increasing chances for snow – perhaps as early as late this week or during the upcoming weekend – as an active upper-level trough forms in the eastern US associated with the initial cold blast.
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If you still have to put up outside Christmas lights and rake some more leaves then this weekend may be the last chance with seasonal temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic region. There are continuing strong signs for a major pattern shift in the central and eastern half of the nation that will bring some serious and sustained cold thanks to a combination of strong high-latitude blocking centered over Greenland, an intensifying upper-level trough in the central and eastern US, and strong high-pressure ridging along the west coasts of the US and Canada. The transition time period from the current mild weather pattern to this upcoming cold pattern looks like it will come around next Wednesday, December 6th with the arrival of a strong cold frontal system in the eastern states that will be followed by a wall of cold.
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Mount Agung on the Indonesian island of Bali is showing increasing signs of heading towards a full-scale eruption. For the last several months, Bali’s largest volcano Mount Agung has been rocked by hundreds of earthquakes and in recent days has begun to spew ash and smoke high up into the atmosphere over this tropical island. If there is indeed a major eruption in this part of the world, it could have a significant impact on global temperatures for up to a couple of years. Mount Agung is one of more than 120 active volcanoes across Indonesia in the so-called Pacific “ring of fire”.
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While we are celebrating a chilly Thanksgiving Day in the Mid-Atlantic region, Summit Station in Greenland will experience high temperatures around -40°F which continues the very cold and well-below normal trend for the month of November. Summit Station (also known as Summit Camp) is a high-altitude (10,551 feet) year-round research station in central Greenland and its exact coordinates actually can change since the ice sheet underneath is often on the move. In addition to the bitter cold, snow and ice accumulation throughout Greenland has been running at the high end of normal since the fall of 2016 - at times at or near record levels - and NASA/MODIS satellite imagery reveals significant growth in the Petermann Glacier from a low point reached five years ago. One of the important reasons for closely monitoring the snow and ice buildup on Greenland is that this region can be an important cold air source for the central and eastern US during the upcoming winter season.
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The sun is blank again today and this marks the 70th day of the year in which there have been no visible sunspots which makes up nearly a quarter of the time in 2017. Historically weak solar cycle 24 continues to transition away from its solar maximum phase and towards the next solar minimum. The last solar minimum was historically long and deep lasting from 2008 to 2010. The blank look to the sun will increase in frequency over the next couple of years leading up to the next solar minimum - probably to be reached in late 2019 or 2020. By one measure, the current solar cycle is the third weakest since record keeping began in 1755 and it continues a weakening trend since solar cycle 21 peaked in 1980. One of the impacts of low solar activity is the increase of cosmic rays that can penetrate into the Earth’s upper atmosphere and this, in turn, can impact clouds on Earth. In addition, there is reason to believe that low solar activity can play an important role in winter weather conditions in the central and eastern US as it is well-correlated with more frequent "high-latitude blocking" events.
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Three important cold air sources for the central and eastern US in the winter season include Canada, Greenland and Siberia and two of these areas have had quite an impressive increase in snowpack in recent weeks and the third is about to receive widespread accumulations. As the snowpack builds up in these particular areas this time of year, cold air masses are very likely to follow as the nights grow longer going into winter season.
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Bali is an Indonesian island known for its volcanic mountains, beaches and rice paddies. For the last month or so, Bali’s largest volcano Mount Agung has been rocked by hundreds of earthquakes and in recent days that number has spiked to nearly 1,000 per day. In addition, white steam is now billowing out of the Bali volcano and this in combination with the increasing number of earthquakes suggests that a major eruption could be imminent. As a precaution, some 180,000 people have been evacuated from the surrounding area during the past few weeks. If there is a major eruption in this part of the world, it could have a significant impact on global temperatures for a few years.
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Beneath Yellowstone National Park lies a supervolcano that can become primed for an eruption in decades rather than the millennia that was previously thought. The odds of an eruption are very small, but scientists have discovered that conditions that lead to super eruptions can emerge within the typical life span of a human. A full-blown eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano would have up to 2000 times the power of the Mount St. Helens eruption of 1980 and would likely cover the US in a thick layer of ash and send the Earth into a volcanic winter.
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Earlier this year, there were signs that a weak El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean could continue through the fall and even into the upcoming winter season, but there is now substantial agreement amongst numerous computer forecast models that La Nina conditions are likely to become established over the next couple of months and current observations back this notion. La Nina is a naturally occurring oceanic cycle that produces colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean whereas El Nino is associated with warmer-than-normal SSTs. The formation of La Nina in the tropical Pacific Ocean will likely have important ramifications around the world including significant impacts on the upcoming winter season, next summer’s tropical season, and global temperatures.
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