The very unsettled weather pattern continues today, tonight and tomorrow as a stalled out frontal system remains the focus area for showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region. Any rain that falls over the next 24-36 hours is likely to be heavy at times with the potential of localized flash flooding and any storm that forms can be strong with gusty winds. A strong cold front will finally push completely through the area on Saturday night and this will set the stage for much nicer weather on Sunday and Monday. Elsewhere, tropical depression Cristobal remains parked just inland over Mexico this morning, but it should head out over the open warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico by tonight and then move generally in a northward direction over the next couple of days. This kind of a track would bring Cristobal in the vicinity of southern Louisiana by late in the weekend likely as a strong tropical storm, but there is the chance that it reaches minimal hurricane status - all should closely monitor the situation from the Panhandle of Florida-to-Texas.
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There are two important weather stories here at mid-week with a sudden surge of summer-like conditions into the Mid-Atlantic region and the development of a tropical storm in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The surge of summer-like heat and humidity into the Mid-Atlantic region will be accompanied by some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in some spots later today and tonight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The highest probability of the severe storm activity will be to the north of the PA/MD border with one shot around mid-day and then another shot from later this afternoon into tonight. This front stalls nearby on Thursday and this could result in some heavy rain bands tomorrow and tomorrow night in the Mid-Atlantic region.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Cristobal has intensified in the overnight hours, but it may very well weaken over the next couple of days as it moves inland over Mexico. However, by the end of the week, TS Cristobal is likely to move back out over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico and take a turn to the north this weekend. There is a chance that Cristobal – the third tropical storm of this young tropical season – will close in on the central Gulf coastal region by the end of the weekend and all eyes should remained focused on this threat from the Panhandle of Florida to Texas.
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A warm front has lifted north of the region and the result today will be a blast of summer-like temperatures and humidity. In fact, temperatures this afternoon should climb to the lower or middle 90’s in many spots to go along with the noticeable humidity and there can be an isolated shower or thunderstorm. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will increase tonight and on Thursday and any storm that forms can be strong-to-severe and any rainfall that occurs can be heavy at times. A frontal system will stall nearby on Thursday and keep it unsettled here through the remainder of the work week with additional chances of showers and thunderstorms. Another cool front will arrive this weekend and it should become more comfortable around here on Sunday and Monday. Elsewhere, all eyes on the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Cristobal should head northward over the next few days towards the central/western Gulf coast.
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High pressure will move offshore today and a warm front will lift northward bringing us a chance of an afternoon shower or two. Behind the warm front, temperatures will soar into the 90’s on Wednesday – the hottest weather so far this season - and there can be a shower or thunderstorm in the area. Any storm that forms on later tomorrow or tomorrow night can be on the strong-to-severe side. A cold front will arrive later in the week and it’ll tend to stall out in the region keeping us on the unsettled side into the weekend. A stronger cold front should push through the region by the middle of the weekend paving the way for a nicer day on Sunday. Elsewhere, all eyes on the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Cristobal should head northward over the next few days towards the central/western Gulf coast.
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A pre-frontal trough of low pressure will become the focal point for showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and early tonight in the Mid-Atlantic region and some of the storms can reach strong-to-severe levels as they approach the I-95 corridor. A strong surface cold front will arrive in the same corridor late tonight, but it will encounter a more stable atmosphere likely not resulting in additional showers or storms. A much cooler air mass will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region tomorrow night and Sunday and the month of June could actually begin with temperatures in the 40’s early Monday in some of the northern and western suburbs in the I-95 corridor. Elsewhere, unsettled weather continues across the Southeast US over the next couple of days and there can be some shower and thunderstorm activity in Florida on Saturday, but prospects for the 3:22 PM SpaceX launch at Cape Canaveral are perhaps a bit higher than they appeared yesterday. Looking ahead, there are indications that tropical activity may develop over the Gulf of Mexico in about a week to ten days and we’ll monitor those prospects in coming days.
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A pre-frontal trough of low pressure will approach the region later today and then a strong cold front arrives in the overnight hours. Ahead of the trough and frontal system, there can be an occasional shower through the early-to-mid afternoon hours, but most of the time will be rain-free. The main action takes place late today and tonight as showers will become more likely and there can be a strong-to-severe thunderstorm as well. Skies will clear tomorrow morning and then a much cooler air mass will pour into the region tomorrow night and Sunday. In fact, the cool air mass arriving this weekend will be quite a bit below-normal for this time of year and the month of June could actually start off on quite a chilly note early Monday morning (June 1st) with temperatures bottoming out in the upper 40's across a few of the northern and western suburbs.
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Enhanced moisture from the southeastern states has pushed into the region and this tropical air mass will result in occasional showers both today and on Friday and there can be some embedded strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity as well; especially, tomorrow afternoon/evening. A strong cool front will arrive by early Saturday and a shower threat may linger in the morning, but the weather will turn out to be dry and quite cool for the remainder of the weekend. In fact, the air mass arriving this weekend will be very cool for this time of year and the month of June could actually start off on quite a chilly note early Monday (June 1) with temperatures reaching the 40's across some of the northern and western suburbs.
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High pressure has pushed offshore and this positioning will open the door for tropical moisture to ride up along the eastern seaboard over the next 24 hours or so. Today’s weather will be somewhat similar to yesterday with early morning fog and clouds and afternoon highs not far from 80 degrees. Enhanced moisture from the southeastern states will arrive in the area towards morning and this air mass will raise the chances for showers and thunderstorms on both Thursday and Friday. A strong cool front will arrive by early in the weekend and a shower threat is possible early Saturday, but much of the weekend could turn out to be dry and cool. In fact, the air mass arriving this weekend will be very cool for this time of year and the month of June could start off on quite a chilly note early Monday, June 1. A couple of other notes, the SpaceX rocket launch is still on for later today scheduled to lift off at 4:33 PM from Cape Canaveral in Florida although there will be scattered showers and storms to monitor. Finally, signs are pretty favorable for a tropical storm/hurricane threat later next week in the Gulf of Mexico.
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High pressure will push offshore today and this positioning will open the door for moisture to ride up along the eastern seaboard over the next few days. After patchy fog and clouds early today, sunshine will return and we'll climb towards the 80 degree mark for afternoon highs. After a rather similar type of day on Wednesday, moisture from the southeastern states will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms here on Thursday and that threat will continue into the early part of the weekend. By Sunday, high pressure will push back into the eastern US and we'll likely enjoy a nice day in the Mid-Atlantic region to close out the upcoming weekend.
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An upper-level low that was spinning over the Tennessee Valley during the past few days has finally kicked to the north and east and the result will be occasional rain here as we close out the work week and also for the beginning of the upcoming holiday weekend…maybe even a thunderstorm or two. The low pressure system will push offshore later tomorrow and better weather is likely here on Sunday and Monday (Memorial Day). In fact, high pressure that builds into the southeastern part of Canada early next week will likely result in a nice stretch of weather here from the latter part of the weekend to middle of next week.
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