There was significant rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday with as much as 4-8 inches just to the southeast of Washington, D.C. and grounds are very well-saturated in many spots. While there can be some shower and thunderstorm activity later today, it should not be nearly as widespread nor as intense as to what took place late yesterday. The threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue on Wednesday and then attention will turn to the Southeast US as low pressure slowly pushes through the Carolinas and heads toward the western Atlantic Ocean. This tropical/sub-tropical low pressure system is likely to then take a turn to the northeast and ride up over or just to the east of the the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The result could be some heavy rainfall on Friday - likely along and to the east of Route I-95 - and strong rip currents are likely to form in the ocean as well with gusty winds. The departure of this coastal low on Saturday won’t be the end of the wet weather pattern for the eastern states as an impressive upper-level trough is likely to develop by later in the weekend leading to more rainfall into the early part of next week.
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Summer-like weather will continue this week with quite warm and humid conditions and additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. While it may be hard for the atmosphere to rebound from yesterday's "hard work", there is the chance for more showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and any shower or storm that forms can produce heavy rainfall. Temperatures should once again reach the 90's later today and high humidity levels will make it quite uncomfortable. Later this week, a storm will pull out of the Southeast US and ride up along the eastern seaboard. This scenario could bring heavy rainfall to at least portions of the Mid-Atlantic region along and east of I-95 from late Thursday night into early Saturday - something to closely monitor given the already well-saturated grounds in many spots. More showers and storms are possible around here later this weekend and into the early part of next week.
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A summer-like week is in store for the metro region with hot, humid conditions and multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms. In fact, there is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening as a weak front arrives and some of the late day/evening storms can be on the strong-to-severe side with torrential downpours. Temperatures today are likely to climb into the low-to-mid 90's for highs and it'll stay hot and uncomfortable for much of the week. Later this week, a storm will pull out of the Deep South and potentially ride up along the eastern seaboard. If so, this system would enhance chances for heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday night and Friday.
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Low pressure in the upper part of the atmosphere is shifting off the coast of the Northeast US today and this should result in rain-free conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region. There will be plenty of sun today and afternoon temperatures should peak near the 90 degree mark. It’ll get hotter on Friday with temperatures likely to climb into the middle 90’s and there is the chance for some afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm activity as a back door cool front approaches the area. The passage of the back door cool front should knock a few degrees off of temperatures for the weekend, but we'll still climb to near the 90 degree mark for afternoon highs on both days. There should be some sunshine on both weekend days, but an afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out on either Saturday or Sunday.
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An upper-level low continues to meander over the Northeast US and showers and thunderstorms will again “pin wheel” around this system during the afternoon and evening. Some of the thunderstorms will reach strong-to-severe levels with highly unstable conditions given the cool air aloft combined with warm lower levels of the atmosphere. Any thunderstorm that forms today can include heavy downpours and perhaps small hail as the freezing level is rather low in this pattern. The upper-level low will finally slide to the southeast by tomorrow and this will reduce the chances for showers and thunderstorms.
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It stays unsettled in the Mid-Atlantic region today as an upper-level low continues to meander over the Northeast US and moderately warm as we begin the month of July. The upper-level low will drop southeastward by the end of the week and a weak cold front will arrive in the area on Friday night. High pressure should push in behind the front as we begin the weekend with another cold frontal system pushing towards us by Sunday night.
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An upper-level low is spinning over the Northeast US and showers and thunderstorms are pin wheeling around this system. Some of the thunderstorms will reach strong-to-severe levels over the next few hours with highly unstable conditions given the chilly air aloft combined with the rather warm lower levels of the atmosphere. Any thunderstorm can contain gusty winds, heavy downpours and small hail as the freezing level is rather low in this scenario. The best chance for the shower and thunderstorm activity will be north and east of the PA/MD border to northern New England, but a few storms can make it all the way down into northern Maryland, northern Virginia, and the Washington, D.C. metro region.
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It stays somewhat unsettled in the Mid-Atlantic region for the next few days as an upper-level low spins around over New England. This feature will drop southeastward by the end of the week and a cold front should arrive in the area on Friday night. High pressure should push in behind the front as we begin the weekend with another cold frontal pushing towards us by Sunday night.
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Temperatures will spike on Saturday in the Mid-Atlantic region after a comfortably warm day on Friday and the sudden warm up will be accompanied by plenty of instability in the atmosphere. Multiple waves of energy in the upper part of the atmosphere will shift eastward on Saturday from the Northern Plains across the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. In addition, there will be a frontal boundary zone extending all the way from the Northern Plains into the eastern Great Lakes and this too will help to create some instability. As a result, strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible in the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday afternoon and evening; especially, to the north of the PA/MD border.
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High pressure will build into the region today and provide us with some sunshine, warm temperatures and comfortable humidity levels. On Saturday, high pressure in the Southeast US will funnel hot and humid air into the Mid-Atlantic region and temperatures could spike into the lower 90’s for afternoon highs. In addition, a frontal boundary zone will approach later in the day and it could result in some shower and thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region. Some of the storms that form on Saturday and Saturday night in the Mid-Atlantic can reach strong-to-severe levels with heavy rainfall and damaging winds; especially, across the far northern suburbs of DC. It stays very warm on Sunday – though likely not quite as hot as on Saturday – and there will be the chance of additional showers and thunderstorms as another frontal system arrives. Following the front, high pressure will build into the Mid-Atlantic region early next week and it is likely to become unsettled once again by the middle of next week.
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