There have been a couple of named tropical systems so far in the Atlantic Basin, but neither one was of much consequence and had little to no impact on the US mainland. A third tropical wave now drifting over Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico is likely to intensify into at least tropical storm status in coming days as it turns to the north, if so, it would become named “Claudette”. The track of this system is likely to bring it to the central Gulf coastal region during the early part of the upcoming weekend and then its remains are likely to push northeastward into the Tennessee Valley on Sunday and then the Carolinas/Virginia on Monday. There is even a chance that the remains of the tropical system strengthen after moving over land - contrary to normal trends for tropical systems - and it could get intertwined with an approaching cold frontal system to produce rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region early next week.
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In the wake of Monday night’s frontal passage, a comfortable air mass pushed into the Mid-Atlantic region on Tuesday and it'll stay very pleasant around here for the next couple of days following the passage of a secondary cool front. Temperatures during the next couple of nights will drop into the 50’s in most suburban locations and afternoon highs will remain in the comfortable 70’s until Friday. At the same time we’re enjoying comfortable weather conditions in the Northeast US, much of the western US is suffering through some excessive heat as intense upper-level high pressure dominates that part of the nation. For example, Phoenix, AZ may experience high temperatures near the 120 degree mark later in the week and Death Valley, CA could reach 125 degrees. Elsewhere, it looks like the Gulf of Mexico will feature a tropical system by the end of the work week and this system should move northward towards the central Gulf coast by the late weekend. After that, there is a chance that the leftover rains of the tropical system move to the northeast and potentially all the way into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US during the early part of next week.
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Strong-to-severe thunderstorms pushed through the Mid-Atlantic region last night along a cold frontal system that has led the way for another comfortable air mass for the middle of June. Hail was reported with many of last night’s storms (e.g., Centreville, VA, Baltimore, MD) and some spots received heavy rainfall and lots of cloud-to-ground lightning. In the wake of the frontal passage, the next few days will be quite nice with pleasant days and cool overnights featuring low temperatures down in the 50’s. At the same time we’re enjoying comfortable weather conditions in the Northeast US, much of the western US is suffering through some excessive heat as upper-level high pressure ridging expands and intensifies over that part of the nation. Elsewhere, it looks like the Gulf of Mexico will feature a tropical system by this weekend. Early signs point to a movement towards Louisiana or Texas and then its precipitation shield is likely to turn to the northeast. Whether this tropical system’s leftover rainfall makes it this far north and east next week is still a little too early to call.
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An unstable atmosphere and an approaching frontal system are raising the chances for strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity late today and tonight in the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC. There is already one line of strong storms pushing eastward into central PA and central NY and other lines are likely to develop during this threat time period which could continue until midnight or so. The storms are moving quickly enough to reduce somewhat the chances of torrential rainfall amounts like we experienced last week; however, damaging wind gusts, hail and even isolated tornadoes are severe weather threats with this particular setup all the way from Washington, D.C. to New York City.
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The week will start off with comfortably warm temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic region, but an approaching cold front will likely result in scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and/or evening hours...some of the storms can be on the strong side. Another cold front will pass through at mid-week ushering in more comfortable air for the northeastern part of the nation. At the same time the Northeast US/Great Lakes enjoys comfortable weather conditions, much of the western US will experience excessive heat as upper-level high pressure ridging expands and intensifies over that part of the nation. Elsewhere, it looks like the Gulf of Mexico will feature a tropical system by late this week or early this weekend and it may ultimately head towards Louisiana.
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A southward-moving cold frontal system arrived here yesterday and has stalled-out in the region allowing for additional showers today and maybe another thunderstorm or two...some of the rain can be heavy at times. The front will finally clear through the region by tomorrow and as high pressure builds in we'll experience warmer conditions on Saturday and some sunshine. The next cold front will then approach late in the weekend and likely generate some shower and thunderstorm activity for late Sunday and Sunday night. Looking ahead, a rather refreshing and cooler-than-normal air mass will push into the Northeast US by the middle of next week at the same time the Southwest US experiences some extreme heat. This pattern change will be the result of a vigorous upper-level low that will drop southeastward from Canada into the Northeast US at the same time strong high pressure ridging builds into the southwestern states. In addition, there is likely to be the first tropical activity of the young Atlantic Basin season by later next over the Gulf of Mexico.
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A cold front is inching towards the area this morning and it will stall out nearby resulting in an increased chance of PM showers and thunderstorms in the DC metro region. In fact, the threat exists for some very heavy rainfall around here later today and tonight given the combination of weak winds, very moist air, and the surface cold frontal boundary zone and this threat will extend eastward to the Delmarva Peninsula. The threat for rain will continue on Friday as well and then the weekend should get off to a pretty decent start. The next cold front could bring some shower and thunderstorm activity back here by late Sunday/Sunday night.
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The combination of a very moist air mass, a southward-advancing cold front, and an unstable atmosphere is resulting in more shower and thunderstorm activity for the Mid-Atlantic region. Any shower or thunderstorm that hits a given area later today/early tonight can produce flash flooding conditions given the general slow movement and the abundance of available moisture. Late yesterday and early last night, the “bulls eye” of the heaviest rainfall took place in Chester County, PA, but today’s threat will extend southward to southern New Jersey, the Delmarva Peninsula, and the DC metro region.
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It’ll remain very humid today in the DC metro region and there will again be the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Any shower or thunderstorm later today can produce heavy rainfall and localized flooding as they will be slow movers and there is a tremendous amount of available low-level moisture. A cold front will cross the region later tonight and usher in slightly cooler air for the late week; however, it will stall just to our south. As low pressure systems move across the stalled out frontal boundary zone, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue in the Mid-Atlantic region through Friday, but at least some of the upcoming weekend looks rather promising.
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It’ll remain very humid today in the DC metro region and there will be the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Any shower or thunderstorm later today can produce some heavy rainfall as they will likely be slow movers and there is an abundance of available low-level moisture. A cold front will cross the region tomorrow night and usher in slightly cooler air for the late week; however, it will stall just to our south. As low pressure systems move across the stalled out frontal boundary zone later in the week, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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