Patchy fog this morning combined with temperatures at or below freezing can lead to some “black ice” on untreated road surfaces during the next few hours. It’ll turn a bit milder later today in the Mid-Atlantic region and then even milder on Thursday ahead of a slow-moving Arctic cold frontal system. Some rain is likely to break out here late tonight and there will be more rain on Thursday and Thursday night. On Friday, as low-level Arctic air filters into the area from the northwest, there can be a changeover to ice and/or snow with temperatures likely to slowly drop during the day. Those temperatures could crash on Friday night as the Arctic air arrives in full force and this could set the stage for a “freeze-up” potentially leading to worsening road conditions.
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Tomorrow is Ground Hog Day and if I could provide some advice to my fellow Pennsylvania prognosticator, it would be to lean towards the prediction of 6 more weeks of winter. At least it is looking quite wintry for the next few weeks in much of the central and eastern US as cold air outbreaks will continue and there are likely to be multiple storm threats on the table. The next few days will feature a slow-moving Arctic cold frontal system across the nation’s heartland that will be the focus area for all kinds of precipitation. There will be rain and thunderstorms on the warm side of the front (southeast) and ice and snow on its cold side (northwest). In fact, the ice and snow will impact a large region of the country extending from the Southwest US to the Northeast US before the week is done with some regions likely to experience substantial snowfall and other areas to suffer with some serious icing.
In the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US, Thursday will start off as a relatively mild day with some rainfall, but interior sections may begin to see a changeover to ice and/or snow later in the day as low-level Arctic air filters in. Sometime on Friday the rain can change to ice and/or snow in the immediate I-95 corridor with the arrival of the Arctic air and by Friday night, temperatures could be dropping rather sharply - potentially setting the stage for a quick “freeze-up”. Looking ahead and this is still in the speculation phase, another storm system is likely to develop near the Southeast US coastline early this weekend and it could result in some snow/ice in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US during the Sunday/Monday time frame.
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It remains quite cold around here today with some sunshine and then we’ll have to watch out for some possible slick spots late tonight as there will be a combination of damp, low-level air with below freezing temperatures. An Arctic front will then press slowly to the south and east at mid-week across the nation’s heartland and this boundary zone will feature rainy and mild conditions on its warm side and accumulating ice and/or snow on the cold side. In fact, accumulating ice and/or snow will likely impact a large area from Texas to the Northeast US before the week is done with some regions likely to experience some serious icing and significant snow accumulations. It’ll turn milder in the Mid-Atlantic region by Thursday and rain is likely to fall around here. However, as Arctic air filters into the region on Friday following the passage of the front, the rain can change to a period of sleet and/or freezing rain and then perhaps to all snow and “freeze-up” conditions are possible on Friday night. Looking ahead, there is the threat for another storm system to push northward into the Mid-Atlantic region at the end of the weekend…stay tuned.
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High pressure will be in control as we begin a new work week and it’ll drift offshore by mid-week. As a result, the week starts off quite cold, but turns milder on Wednesday and Thursday. An influx of Arctic air and its associated slow-moving cold front will have a big impact on a wide part of the nation this week and it’ll bring rain here by Thursday. Colder air will follow the frontal passage and we’ll have to monitor the chance of a changeover from rain to ice and/or snow later this week as the Arctic air filters into the region.
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Many ingredients are going to come together that will allow for explosive intensification of a storm system over the western Atlantic Ocean between mid-day today and late Saturday. In fact, it appears that this low pressure system will easily surpass the requirement of a central pressure drop of at least 24 millibars in a 24-hour period to be classified as a “bomb cyclone”. Some snow is likely to break out today across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US and then the main event will come tonight and Saturday from this intensifying storm. Very cold air will push into the eastern states during the height of the storm on Saturday and it’ll be bitter cold tomorrow night with brutal wind chills. This Arctic blast will plunge all the way down to southern Florida and even to Cuba. Miami is likely to experience lows in the 30’s this weekend for the first time since 2010.
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An ocean storm will intensify rapidly over the next 36 hours or so and it will have a big impact on the Northeast US and also on much of the eastern Mid-Atlantic region. Some snow can break out here today associated with a frontal system, but the steadier, heavier snow associated with the developing storm should fall from this evening into Saturday morning. The winds will increase in intensity as well during this event as a very strong pressure gradient will form between the strengthening low pressure and strong high pressure over southeastern Canada. A very cold (and dry) air mass will be in place during much of the storm resulting in a drier, fluffier type of snow and temperatures tomorrow night can plunge to the upper single digits in some spots. In fact, this cold air mass will dive all the way down into southern Florida this weekend on the heels of the storm. The estimate for snow accumulations across our region is 1-5 inches with the higher amounts in that range to the south and east and the lesser amounts to the north and west. A couple of notes, there is likely to be a sharp snow accumulation gradient with this storm and a small shift in the currently projected storm track and/or the timing of the intensification can make a big difference in these snowfall estimates in a given spot…so stay tuned.
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Many ingredients are going to come together that will allow for explosive intensification of a storm system over the western Atlantic Ocean between mid-day Friday and late Saturday. In fact, it appears that this low pressure system may rather easily surpass the requirement of a central pressure drop of at least 24 millibars in a 24-hour period to be classified as a “bomb cyclone”. Some snow is likely to break out during the day on Friday across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US as an Arctic cold frontal system arrives and small accumulations are even possible. The main event by the rapidly intensifying ocean storm will take place on Friday night and Saturday. Very cold air will follow on its heels later this weekend all the way down to the southern part of Florida where Miami could see lows in the 30’s for the first time since 2010.
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Many ingredients are going to come together that will allow for explosive intensification of a storm system over the western Atlantic Ocean between mid-day tomorrow and mid-day Saturday. In fact, it appears that this low pressure system may rather easily surpass the requirement of a central pressure drop of at least 24 millibars in a 24-hour period to be classified as a “bomb cyclone”. The ultimate track of the storm is still somewhat unclear at this time, but snow accumulations are likely in the Mid-Atlantic region from later tomorrow into Saturday. The preliminary estimate for snow accumulations across our region is 1-5 inches with the higher amounts in that range to the south and east and the lesser amounts to the north and west. A couple of notes, there is likely to be a sharp snow accumulation gradient with this storm and a small shift in the currently projected storm track can make a big difference in these preliminary snowfall estimates…i.e., still a fluid situation so stay tuned.
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Many ingredients are going to come together that will allow for explosive intensification of a storm system over the western Atlantic Ocean between mid-day Friday and mid-day Saturday. In fact, it appears that this low pressure system may rather easily surpass the requirement of a central pressure drop of at least 24 millibars in a 24-hour period to be classified as a “bomb cyclone”. The exact timing of the rapid intensification and the ultimate track of the storm are still somewhat unclear at this time and while a significant impact appears quite likely for eastern New England, there is a chance that at least part of the Mid-Atlantic region escapes with only a moderate or minor impact.
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An Arctic air mass has pushed into the Mid-Atlantic region and the next couple of days will feature well below-normal temperatures for the latter part of January. The core of the coldest air will be in place late tonight and late night temperatures lows will likely drop to the middle teens in much of the region. Low pressure will form near the southeastern US coastline on Friday and enter a rapid intensification phase as it moves to the northeast at week’s end. Snow is likely to break out here later Friday and continue into Saturday from what is looking increasingly likely to be an unfolding intense ocean storm with wide-ranging impacts. It is still a bit too early to determine the ultimate storm track and exactly when the explosive intensification will take place, but all residents in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US should continue to closely monitor this unfolding situation.
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