A slow-moving Arctic cold front is inching its way across the region this morning and cold, dense low-level Arctic air will filter in from the northwest to the southeast as the day progresses. As a result, any plain rain that is falling early today - and it can be heavy at times - can transition to freezing rain and/or sleet later in the day in some of the far northern and western suburbs. Temperatures will continue to drop tonight as the Arctic air mass arrives in full force so watch out for any leftover standing water that can quickly freeze up. Cold high pressure takes control for the upcoming weekend with sunshine expected on both days. Low pressure will then organize just off the east coast on Monday and it could have an impact on the eastern Mid-Atlantic region by late Monday or Monday night in the form of snow and/or rain.
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Quite a muddy mess in the Mid-Atlantic region today with occasional rain, snowmelt, and some patchy fog as well - all out ahead of a slow-moving Arctic cold frontal system that has wreaked havoc on much of the heartland during the past couple of days with snow, ice and rain. That cold front will inch its way across the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor tomorrow morning and an Arctic air mass will filter into the region from the northwest-to-southeast. After a very mild start early in the day along the immediate I-95 corridor, temperatures will fall throughout the remainder of Friday following the passage of the Arctic front. As a result, any plain rain that is falling early tomorrow can begin to freeze on some untreated surfaces by mid-day or early afternoon across suburban locations to the north and west. The rain can also mix with or change to sleet and/or snow for a brief time later in the day on Friday. It does appear that the icing potential in this case will be rather limited in nature around here as drier air will tend to inhibit any appreciable amounts of precipitation while we are on the cold side of the front. Temperatures are likely to continue to drop tomorrow night which can lead to a quick freeze-up of any standing water that still remains.
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It’ll turn milder today in the Mid-Atlantic region and there will be occasional rain lasting right into the overnight hours. A slow-moving Arctic cold front will inch its way across the region by early tomorrow morning and cold, dense low-level Arctic air will filter in from the northwest to the southeast. As a result, any plain rain that is falling on Friday morning can transition to freezing rain during the day in some of the far northern and western suburbs. Temperatures will plunge tomorrow night as the Arctic air mass arrives in full force…watch out for any leftover standing water that can quickly freeze up early tomorrow night.
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Phil saw his shadow this morning in upstate Pennsylvania signaling there will be 6 more weeks of winter which is probably the right forecast as it looks now. At the very least, it is looking quite wintry going into the middle of the month for much of the central and eastern US as additional cold air outbreaks are quite likely and there should be other storm threats as well. A slow-moving Arctic frontal system is the focus of attention today across the nation’s heartland as it is being accompanied by a little bit of ice in some spots and a lot of snow in other areas.
After a mild and wet Thursday and Thursday night in the Mid-Atlantic, this slow-moving cold front will inch its way across the region early Friday morning and cold, dense low-level Arctic air will filter in from northwest-to-southeast. As a result, any plain rain that is falling early Friday can begin to freeze on some surfaces in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor potentially leading to an icy mess; especially, in some of the suburbs to the north and west. Later Friday, the precipitation can change from freezing rain to sleet and then perhaps for a brief time to all snow before winding down early Friday night. Temperatures are likely to drop sharply on Friday night so any roads that remain wet can quickly “freeze-up” - including in those areas along coastal New Jersey and the Delmarva Peninsula where temperatures may not drop to freezing until early Friday night.
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Patchy fog this morning combined with temperatures at or below freezing can lead to some “black ice” on untreated road surfaces during the next few hours. It’ll turn a bit milder later today in the Mid-Atlantic region and then even milder on Thursday ahead of a slow-moving Arctic cold frontal system. Some rain is likely to break out here late tonight and there will be more rain on Thursday and Thursday night. On Friday, as low-level Arctic air filters into the area from the northwest, there can be a changeover to ice and/or snow with temperatures likely to slowly drop during the day. Those temperatures could crash on Friday night as the Arctic air arrives in full force and this could set the stage for a “freeze-up” potentially leading to worsening road conditions.
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Tomorrow is Ground Hog Day and if I could provide some advice to my fellow Pennsylvania prognosticator, it would be to lean towards the prediction of 6 more weeks of winter. At least it is looking quite wintry for the next few weeks in much of the central and eastern US as cold air outbreaks will continue and there are likely to be multiple storm threats on the table. The next few days will feature a slow-moving Arctic cold frontal system across the nation’s heartland that will be the focus area for all kinds of precipitation. There will be rain and thunderstorms on the warm side of the front (southeast) and ice and snow on its cold side (northwest). In fact, the ice and snow will impact a large region of the country extending from the Southwest US to the Northeast US before the week is done with some regions likely to experience substantial snowfall and other areas to suffer with some serious icing.
In the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US, Thursday will start off as a relatively mild day with some rainfall, but interior sections may begin to see a changeover to ice and/or snow later in the day as low-level Arctic air filters in. Sometime on Friday the rain can change to ice and/or snow in the immediate I-95 corridor with the arrival of the Arctic air and by Friday night, temperatures could be dropping rather sharply - potentially setting the stage for a quick “freeze-up”. Looking ahead and this is still in the speculation phase, another storm system is likely to develop near the Southeast US coastline early this weekend and it could result in some snow/ice in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US during the Sunday/Monday time frame.
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It remains quite cold around here today with some sunshine and then we’ll have to watch out for some possible slick spots late tonight as there will be a combination of damp, low-level air with below freezing temperatures. An Arctic front will then press slowly to the south and east at mid-week across the nation’s heartland and this boundary zone will feature rainy and mild conditions on its warm side and accumulating ice and/or snow on the cold side. In fact, accumulating ice and/or snow will likely impact a large area from Texas to the Northeast US before the week is done with some regions likely to experience some serious icing and significant snow accumulations. It’ll turn milder in the Mid-Atlantic region by Thursday and rain is likely to fall around here. However, as Arctic air filters into the region on Friday following the passage of the front, the rain can change to a period of sleet and/or freezing rain and then perhaps to all snow and “freeze-up” conditions are possible on Friday night. Looking ahead, there is the threat for another storm system to push northward into the Mid-Atlantic region at the end of the weekend…stay tuned.
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High pressure will be in control as we begin a new work week and it’ll drift offshore by mid-week. As a result, the week starts off quite cold, but turns milder on Wednesday and Thursday. An influx of Arctic air and its associated slow-moving cold front will have a big impact on a wide part of the nation this week and it’ll bring rain here by Thursday. Colder air will follow the frontal passage and we’ll have to monitor the chance of a changeover from rain to ice and/or snow later this week as the Arctic air filters into the region.
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Many ingredients are going to come together that will allow for explosive intensification of a storm system over the western Atlantic Ocean between mid-day today and late Saturday. In fact, it appears that this low pressure system will easily surpass the requirement of a central pressure drop of at least 24 millibars in a 24-hour period to be classified as a “bomb cyclone”. Some snow is likely to break out today across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US and then the main event will come tonight and Saturday from this intensifying storm. Very cold air will push into the eastern states during the height of the storm on Saturday and it’ll be bitter cold tomorrow night with brutal wind chills. This Arctic blast will plunge all the way down to southern Florida and even to Cuba. Miami is likely to experience lows in the 30’s this weekend for the first time since 2010.
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An ocean storm will intensify rapidly over the next 36 hours or so and it will have a big impact on the Northeast US and also on much of the eastern Mid-Atlantic region. Some snow can break out here today associated with a frontal system, but the steadier, heavier snow associated with the developing storm should fall from this evening into Saturday morning. The winds will increase in intensity as well during this event as a very strong pressure gradient will form between the strengthening low pressure and strong high pressure over southeastern Canada. A very cold (and dry) air mass will be in place during much of the storm resulting in a drier, fluffier type of snow and temperatures tomorrow night can plunge to the upper single digits in some spots. In fact, this cold air mass will dive all the way down into southern Florida this weekend on the heels of the storm. The estimate for snow accumulations across our region is 1-5 inches with the higher amounts in that range to the south and east and the lesser amounts to the north and west. A couple of notes, there is likely to be a sharp snow accumulation gradient with this storm and a small shift in the currently projected storm track and/or the timing of the intensification can make a big difference in these snowfall estimates in a given spot…so stay tuned.
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