A cold front crossed the region last night and it will stall out just to the south of here later today. As a result of the proximity of the stalled-out front, a shower will remain a possibility during each of the next few days; however, the vast majority of the time will be rain-free. Temperatures will continue to remain moderately warm for mid-July and overall humidity will be lower today following the passage of the frontal system.
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A combination of an approaching cold front, upper-level support, and a very warm and humid low-level air mass will result in a strong-to-severe thunderstorm threat in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor late today and tonight. The most likely timetable for this severe weather threat in the I-95 corridor will be 4-10pm with damaging wind gusts and downpours on the table.
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A strong cold front will approach the area later today and it can set off a strong-to-severe thunderstorm during the late afternoon or evening hours. High pressure will try to take back control of the weather on Wednesday, but a shower or thunderstorm can’t be ruled out during the second half of the week as the same cold front that passes through by tonight will stall out just to the south of here and keep it somewhat unstable.
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The new work week will start off with high pressure in control and temperatures will be comfortably warm with highs in the 80’s. A strong cold front will approach the area later tomorrow and it can set off a strong thunderstorm or two during the PM hours on Tuesday. High pressure will try to take back control for the second half of the week, but the front stalls out nearby keeping chances alive somewhat for late week showers and thunderstorms.
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A stalled-out frontal system draped across the Mid-Atlantic region will keep it unsettled around here through tomorrow with the threat of additional scattered showers and thunderstorms. A secondary front will arrive later tomorrow and it should clear the way for a pretty decent weekend with a comfortably warm air mass headed to the northeastern part of the nation. High pressure will be in control this weekend resulting in sunshine on both days to go along with those reasonable temperatures for this time of year.
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An active weather pattern continues at mid-week in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions with persistent northwesterly flow aloft on the outer perimeter of a strong high pressure system that is centered over the southern states. This “ring of fire” on the periphery of the high pressure system continues to feature batches of showers and thunderstorms rotating around in its northeastern quadrant from northwest-to-southeast. The next upstream batch of showers and thunderstorms is now pushing through the Ohio Valley and its remnants will enhance the chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms later today and tonight likely in the region from DC-to-Philly.
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Humidity is high here today and it will contribute to unsettled conditions during the next few days with a stalled-out frontal system nearby. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely in the Mid-Atlantic region through the remainder of the work week with the best chance later today south of the PA/MD border including right here in the DC metro region. Any shower or thunderstorm later today and tonight can produce some heavy rainfall amounts in a short period of time…watch out for localized flooding conditions. High pressure will resume control of the weather around here this weekend with some sunshine expected both days along with very reasonable temperatures for this time of year.
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Large scale northwesterly flow in the upper part of the atmosphere this time of year in the Mid-Atlantic region often results in severe weather threats and there is just such a possibility from this afternoon into tonight. The zone with the best chance of strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity later today will likely be from the DC metro region/Delmarva Peninsula on the southern end to central/eastern Pennsylvania on the northern end as the remnants of an overnight “mesoscale convective system (MCS) appear to be headed right towards that region. Northwesterly flow aloft in this part of the nation usually is the result of strong high pressure ridging to the southwest of here and embedded shortwaves often move in a northwest-to-southeast fashion in the outer perimeter of this kind of system.
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The combination of an approaching cold front and an upstream batch of showers and thunderstorms will keep it very unsettled around here during the afternoon and nighttime hours. Any thunderstorm that develops later today or tonight can be on the strong-to-severe side with some heavy rainfall and gusty winds. This same frontal system will meander just to the south of here through the remainder of the week maintaining the unsettled conditions as several waves of low pressure move along the boundary zone. High pressure may take back control of the weather later in the weekend.
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The holiday weekend will start off on the unsettled side with a slow-moving frontal system in the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday. This system is likely to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms as we begin the long weekend and some of the storms can be on the strong side. A shower or thunderstorm is still possible on Sunday and on Monday - the 4th of July - but the chances will be lower than during the beginning stages of the weekend. Looking ahead, a northwest flow aloft could result in another round of severe weather for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by the middle of next week from a system that is headed for the Upper Midwest.
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