High pressure returns to the Mid-Atlantic region today, but another system will renew our chances for showers and thunderstorms on Friday and some of the storms can be strong. Low pressure will drop southeast from the Great Lakes on Friday and it looks like it will bring a widespread and welcomed rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region. This system should then only slowly push northeast and it’ll meander over New England on Saturday keeping it slightly unsettled around here with the chance for a shower across northern sections. Father’s Day Sunday promises to be full of sunshine and quite warm with high temperatures well up in the 80’s.
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After a nice day on Tuesday with low humidity and comfortable temperatures, the mid-week will become unsettled as an upper-level low spins nearby helping to destabilize the atmosphere. As a result, there can be showers at just about anytime today and PM thunderstorms are on the table as well any one of which can produce brief downpours and small hail. High pressure returns for Thursday and then another front can cause shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday to close out the work week.
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Much-needed rainfall fell in the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday with 1-2 inches commonplace across eastern Pennsylvania, northern Delaware, and western New Jersey. The next several days will bring additional chances of rain to the area with the first threat coming on Wednesday as an upper-level low pressure system moves close by. As a result, the atmosphere will destabilize later tomorrow as colder air moves in aloft and an outbreak of showers and thunderstorms is quite likely. In fact, some of the thunderstorms that do form later tomorrow can become quite strong with brief downpours and small hail a possibility. Another batch of showers is possible on Friday as another upper-level low spins its way into the Mid-Atlantic region and yet another disturbance can raise the chances for rain in the Monday/Tuesday time frame.
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After an unsettled day on Monday, a frontal system passed through the region in the overnight hours and the air mass to follow for today will feature lower humidity levels and comfortable temperatures. An upper-level low centered over the Great Lakes for the past couple of days will push overhead at mid-week and this will renew the chances here on Wednesday for showers and PM thunderstorms. High pressure returns for Thursday and another front can spark a shower or thunderstorm on Friday.
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Low pressure over the Ohio Valley this morning has a frontal system extending southward from its center to the Southeast US and this front will only inch along as it approaches the eastern seaboard. As such, low pressure will form along the frontal boundary zone enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region from mid-day through the evening. Some of the rain that falls later today can be heavy at times and some of the thunderstorms can reach strong-to-severe levels with the potential of damaging wind gusts and small hail in addition to the heavy downpours. The upper-level low associated with this system swings overhead at mid-week increasing the chance for more shower and thunderstorm activity on Wednesday after a less humid day on Tuesday featuring comfortable temperatures.
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Finally…some beneficial rainfall for the Mid-Atlantic region as we begin the new work week. An upper-level low pressure system moves to the Great Lakes today and a surface cold front will extend from its center to the southeastern US. This front will slow down as it approaches the eastern seaboard and waves of low pressure will form along the frontal boundary zone. As a result, there will be occasional showers and thunderstorms today and tonight…some of the storms can reach strong-to-severe levels with potential damaging wind gusts, hail and heavy rainfall. Following the passage of the front, it’ll turn less humid on Tuesday with comfortable temperatures, but another front approaches the region on Wednesday increasing the chance for more shower and thunderstorm activity.
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An upper-level low meandering over the northeastern states during the past several days will finally scoot out-to-sea this weekend, but not before another wave of energy rotates through our area later today raising the chance for scattered PM showers and thunderstorms. The rain later today is certainly no guarantee, but any would be welcomed as it has been virtually rain-free around here for the past few weeks. An even better chance for some beneficial rain is likely on Monday with the combination of yet another slow-moving upper-level low pressure system that will head to the Great Lakes and a frontal system that will inch its ways eastward early next week towards the eastern seaboard. The overall weather pattern continues to look like there should be no extended heat and humidity anytime too soon.
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An upper-level low over the northeastern states will slowly pull away over the next couple of days, but its influence will continue to bring us comfortable temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic region and more smoky skies. One piece of energy rotating around the low will likely spark some shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday along with the continuation of comfortable temperatures. The weekend is shaping up to be generally decent weather-wise and there is hope for beneficial rainfall on Monday as a front closes in on the east coast.
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It is quite common to have a “Bermuda High” type of weather pattern in the eastern US this time of year with high pressure stationed over the western Atlantic and southwesterly flow of air pushing hot and humid air to the Mid-Atlantic region from the Gulf of Mexico. Our current weather pattern is about as opposite as you can get with a meandering upper-level low centered over Maine/Nova Scotia leading to persistent northwesterly flow in the lower part of the atmosphere. This type of wind flow is influencing the weather in multiple ways.
First, it is leading to quite comfortable temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic region for the early part of June and, second, it is resulting in unusually low humidity levels. In addition, this persistent northwesterly flow continues to bring smoke into the area from wildfires that developed several days ago in Quebec, Canada. In fact, the most dense smoke of all in this current outbreak may push into New York City, Pennsylvania and New Jersey this afternoon and evening and the smell of smoke should become much more noticeable. In terms of rainfall, there were scattered late day showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and a couple of troughs can bring isolated showers/thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic region later in the week. Looking ahead, there is a glimmer of hope for a more appreciable rainfall early next week with another upper-level low likely to spin into the Mid-Atlantic region from the Great Lakes.
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Smoke from wildfires in Quebec, Canada will continue to fill the skies in the Mid-Atlantic region today leading to hazy conditions. Temperatures will remain quite comfortable for the early part of June influenced by a closed-low spinning around over Nova Scotia/Maine. A couple of weak troughs rotating around the upper-level low can result in isolated showers on Thursday and Friday and there is a glimmer of hope for more appreciable rainfall early next week.
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