Many parts of the Mid-Atlantic region were hit by downpours on Saturday and the threat for more torrential rain continues today as we close out the weekend. A vigorous system sliding east across the Ohio Valley will enhance upward motion in the region and low-level moisture remains high. As a result, any shower or thunderstorm that forms later today and tonight can produce significant rainfall amounts on top of what fell yesterday leading to flash flooding concerns. In addition, enough destabilization may occur in the atmosphere to help generate sever thunderstorm activity which could bring damaging wind gusts to many areas.
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The combination of high low-level moisture content and an incoming frontal system will keep the atmosphere quite unstable today in the Mid-Atlantic region. Some of the storms that form later today can be quite strong and some of the rain can be heavy. After perhaps a little bit of a reduction in the chances for rain on Saturday, a potent system is likely to drop southeast on Sunday from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic region. This system is likely to bring heavy rain to the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday and potentially some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity.
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The combination of high low-level moisture content and a couple of frontal systems will keep the atmosphere very unstable in the Mid-Atlantic region for the next few days. Any shower or thunderstorm that develops from later today into Saturday can produce heavy rainfall amounts given the high moisture levels and the expected slow movement due to an overall weak wind field and little steering flow. A potent system is likely to drop southeast on Sunday from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic region and this next system is likely to extend the chances for heavy rainfall and bring about a chance for severe thunderstorms as well.
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High moisture content in the lower part of the atmosphere and a weak frontal system stationed nearby can help to generate scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the DC metro area. The unsettled weather pattern will continue on Friday as a cool front approaches the region from the west enhancing instability in the lower part of the atmosphere. Any shower or thunderstorm that forms over the next couple of days can produce significant rainfall amounts given the high moisture content and the expected slow movement of rain cells in the area. This active weather pattern will continue this weekend and a potent system headed this way for Sunday can result in a more widespread, heavy rain event for the Mid-Atlantic region.
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A nearby frontal system tends to weaken today and this will reduce slightly the chances for rainfall; however, scattered PM showers and thunderstorms are still likely in the DC metro region. In fact, any shower or storm that forms later today can produce heavy rainfall given the high moisture content in the lower atmosphere and expected slow movement of any rain cells. The unsettled weather pattern continues through at least the first half of next week with a daily shot at showers and thunderstorms and the late weekend can present an opportunity for a significant rain event.
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A front pushed into the region on Monday and has stalled-out nearby resulting in a continuation of unstable atmospheric conditions. As such, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue today with the highest chance during the afternoon and early evening hours. The front tends to dissipate by tomorrow and this may reduce chances for rain slightly on both Wednesday and Thursday. The unsettled weather pattern will return in full force, however, by the end of the week and for the weekend as well.
One final note, if you thought June was on the cool side of normal in the Mid-Atlantic region, you were correct. The month of June ended up 2.9 degrees below-normal in Philadelphia, 2.2 degrees below-normal in D.C., and 2.0 degrees cooler-than-normal in Central Park (NY). Temperatures reached the 90 degree mark for highs only once during the entire month in both Philadelphia and New York City and only four times in Washington, D.C. The month of May was also cooler-than-normal in all three Mid-Atlantic locations.
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The combination of an upper-level trough, high moisture content in the lower atmosphere, and a weak frontal boundary zone will be enough to result in very unstable atmospheric conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region from later today into early tonight enhancing the chance for severe thunderstorm activity. A somewhat similar setup will continue the chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, the 4th of July, with the greatest chance once again coming during the afternoon and early evening hours. Not all areas will get hit during this next 36 hours, but any thunderstorm that does form can contain torrential downpours, damaging wind gusts, hail and even an isolated tornado or two. The overall unsettled weather pattern that began in late June may relax a bit on Wednesday and Thursday; however, it should resume in full force by the end of the shortened work week and continue through the upcoming weekend.
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A front will approach the region later today and likely bring with it afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Any thunderstorm later today and early tonight can be on the strong side with heavy rain and gusty winds. Unfortunately, the frontal system will hang nearby on Tuesday - the 4th of July - and the weather will be pretty much a repeat performance of today with the chance of PM showers and thunderstorms. The front will dissipate some by mid-week and the chance of showers and thunderstorms may become somewhat diminished on Wednesday and Thursday; however, the overall unsettled weather pattern lasts right into the upcoming weekend.
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The day will begin with weak high pressure in control, but a frontal system will approach the region late and this will raise the chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. With a couple of nearby frontal systems this weekend, both days should feature plenty of clouds and the continuing chance of showers and thunderstorms. It’ll remain unsettled going into the early part of next week with an additional frontal system dropping into the area from our northwest.
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Weak high pressure will stay in control of the weather today in the Mid-Atlantic region providing us with rain-free conditions and seasonably warm conditions. A couple of frontal systems will head this way by the weekend making for unsettled weather conditions from later tomorrow into early next week with a renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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