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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: DC

7:00 AM | *Nice fall weather next few days...more weekend rain on the way and quite cool*

Paul Dorian

An upper-level low will push across the central states over the next few days and help to spawn an Ohio Valley surface low by the end of the week. This initial or primary low will then give way to an intensifying secondary low early this weekend somewhere near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. As a result, it looks like yet another weekend rain event for the Mid-Atlantic region that will feature a persistent onshore flow of air (NE winds) and quite cool conditions. The inclement weather is likely to spill over into Sunday with the expected very slow movement of the upper-level trough of low pressure over the eastern US.

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9:30 AM | **Pacific Ocean-to-Gulf of Mexico "tropical hand-off"…yet another weekend rain event Mid-Atlantic region**

Paul Dorian

Two big weather stories over the next several days will include a Pacific Ocean-to-Gulf of Mexico “tropical hand-off” and yet another weekend rain event is in the cards for the Mid-Atlantic region. Hurricane Lidia will head into western Mexico later today and some of its tropical moisture will make it across Mexico at mid-week giving a boost to a tropical wave sitting over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Surface low pressure with a Pacific Ocean-to-Gulf of Mexico tropical connection will form by later tomorrow over the western Gulf and then spread some heavy rainfall across the northern Gulf/Southeast US as it takes a path to the east-to-northeast.

Meanwhile, a deepening upper-level low pressure system will cross the nation from west-to-east in coming days and set off the development of surface low pressure over the Ohio valley by week’s end. This primary or initial low will then give way to a secondary low pressure system likely to form early this weekend along the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The result will continue a recent trend in the Mid-Atlantic region with some weekend rain and very cool conditions featuring a persistent onshore flow of air.

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7:00 AM | **Nice fall weather next few days...another weekend rain event**

Paul Dorian

The upper-level low drifting around the southern Hudson Bay region of Canada in recent days will weaken and slide to the east at mid-week. Meanwhile, high pressure over the southeastern states will take control of our weather in the short-term as its axis will move overhead by later tomorrow. Later in the week, a cold front will begin to push from west-to-east across the central states along with an intensifying upper-level trough of low pressure. This combination may help to spawn the formation of strong low pressure near the Mid-Atlantic coastline by the early part of the upcoming weekend likely resulting in another weekend rain event for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.

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7:00 AM | **Cool air mass in place as we begin the work week...potential for a strong storm near the Mid-Atlantic coastline this weekend**

Paul Dorian

A cool air mass will remain in place for the next couple of days in the Mid-Atlantic region with low pressure stationed to our north and high pressure well to the south. A weak cool front will cross the area later tonight and Tuesday and then low pressure is likely to develop near the Northeast US coastline at the end of the week bringing us the chance for some more wet weekend weather.

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6:30 AM | **Big changes here this weekend with the influx of a much cooler air mass**

Paul Dorian

Big changes are on the way this weekend with the influx of a much cooler air mass that had its origins up in northern Canada. A strong cold front will pass through the area on Saturday and winds will pick up noticeably by later tomorrow from a northwesterly direction. Winds will remain an important factor on Sunday as the overall pressure gradient field tightens across the northeastern states as the remnants of Tropical Storm Philippe invigorates this incoming upper-level trough system. Temperatures on Sunday are likely to be confined to near 60 degrees for afternoon highs and the stiff NW wind will make it feel even colder than the actual air temperature. Cooler-than-normal weather is likely to persist for much of next week in the Mid-Atlantic region.

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12:00 PM | **Tropical Storm Philippe to energize incoming “pattern-changing” upper-level trough…Pacific Ocean tropical storm may cross Mexico and spawn Gulf of Mexico system**

Paul Dorian

Tropical systems in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans may impact the weather across the US in coming days in somewhat unusual manners. Tropical Storm Philippe has been meandering over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean recently and it will soon accelerate to the north and impact Maine/Nova Scotia with rain and wind later this weekend. After that, the remnants of TS Philippe will get “absorbed” into an incoming upper-level trough over the southeastern part of Canada. This influx of tropical moisture into the upper-level trough will act to energize the system and it will become a big contributor to a temperature pattern change in the eastern states with much cooler weather from this weekend and well into next week. Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific Ocean is now featuring multiple tropical systems and one of these is likely hit the west coast of Mexico by the middle of next week. After that, this tropical system that originated in the Pacific Ocean is likely to cross over Mexico and help to spawn tropical activity over the Gulf of Mexico which potentially can result in rain across the southeastern states.

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7:00 AM | **A much cooler air mass headed to the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend**

Paul Dorian

While high pressure shifts off the coast today, it’ll remain close enough to generate another decent day in the Mid-Atlantic region with afternoon high temperatures here well up in the 70’s. A strong cold front will approach the area later tomorrow and there will be an increasing chance of showers as we end the work week. The strong cold front should pass through the region on Saturday and winds will pick up noticeably at night with the influx of the coldest air mass of the fall season so far. Winds will remain an important factor on Sunday as the overall pressure gradient field tightens across the northeastern states as Tropical Storm Philippe merges with this incoming upper-level trough system. Temperatures on Sunday are liable to be confined to near 60 degrees for highs and the stiff NW wind will make it feel even colder than the actual air temperature. Cooler-than-normal weather is likely to persist for much of next week in the Mid-Atlantic region.

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2:15 PM | **Cold shot arrives this weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region and others are likely to follow this month...Tropical Storm Philippe gets absorbed into the pattern-changing upper-level trough**

Paul Dorian

Temperatures are some 10+ degrees above-normal today in the Mid-Atlantic region, but big changes are on the way this weekend and the change to noticeably cooler conditions may not be just an “in-and-out” affair. Strong upper-level ridging across the eastern US and Canada will give way to an upper-level trough of low pressure this weekend that will tend to hang around through much of October ensuring additional cold air outbreaks. This initial blast of much cooler air into the east will follow an early weekend strong cold frontal passage and Sunday promises to be the coolest day so far this fall season in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. In addition to the cool down, winds will become an important factor by Sunday as the overall pressure gradient tightens across the northeastern states as Tropical Storm Philippe merges with the initial incoming upper-level trough system.

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7:00 AM | *Very warm again today...much cooler air mass headed this way for the weekend and early part of next week*

Paul Dorian

High pressure remains in control around here for the next couple of days resulting in additional warmer-than-normal weather featuring plenty of sunshine. A strong cold front arrives early this weekend and it’ll result in a much cooler air mass moving into the Mid-Atlantic region with Sunday very likely to be the coolest day so far this fall season. Temperatures will climb to the low-to-mid 80’s later today and well up in the 70’s on Thursday, but likely will be confined to near 60 degrees for highs by the time we get to the second half of the weekend and the early part of next week.

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7:00 AM | *Warm, dry weather next few days...strong cold frontal passage ushers in much cooler air for the weekend/early part of next week*

Paul Dorian

High pressure remains in control for the next few days in the Mid-Atlantic region generating above-normal temperatures and plenty of sunshine each day. A strong cold front arrives at the end of the week and it’ll result in a much cooler weekend and early part of next week. Temperatures will climb to the 80’s over the next few days, but may be confined to near 60 degrees for highs by the time we get to the second half of the weekend.

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