The active weather pattern that brought multiple heavy rain events to the Mid-Atlantic region in December continues into the new year and it could result in an accumulating snow event this weekend. In addition, there will be a predecessor system that can bring some rain and/or snow shower activity from later Wednesday night into Thursday. This initial system will not be a big deal; however, it will intensify significantly once well off the Northeast US coastline and likely end up being a key player in the weekend event.
Low pressure pushes out of the south-central part of the country this weekend and will have plenty of available moisture. The weekend system will run into a cold air mass over the Mid-Atlantic region thanks in part by the passage and intensification of that preceding low pressure and its ultimate location (50 degrees latitude/50 degrees longitude). The storm track for the weekend storm is still in some flux, but the potential is there for the most snow seen in a long time for at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. Looking ahead, another (warmer) storm can follow during the early or middle of next week (~1/9-1/10) and signs continue to point to the possibility of widespread Arctic cold across much of the nation by the middle of January.
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A northern hemisphere stratospheric warming event that began during the latter part of November will rise to new levels within the next ten days or so and this could have important ramifications on temperatures across the central and eastern US from later January into February. Temperatures at the stratospheric level of 10 millibars will climb dramatically over the next ten days or so from about -70 degrees (Celsius) to about -25 degrees (Celsius) as warming aloft intensifies over the polar region of the northern hemisphere. The “polar vortex” that typically resides near or over the North Pole during this time of year will become displaced and “stretched” in coming days and this could unleash some high latitude cold air masses into the middle latitudes by the time we get into later January and February. In the near term, the weather pattern will be quite active across the eastern states with multiple systems to monitor during the next couple of weeks and temperatures will return to more seasonal levels.
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Low pressure will bring periods of rain to the DC metro region today and tonight, some of the rain can be heavy at times and there can be a thunderstorm mixed into the picture. Temperatures will remain on the mild side for this time of year reaching up into the middle 50’s for afternoon highs. It stays unsettled for the next couple of days as a second low pressure system pushes into the eastern states. High pressure returns for the weekend as it turns slightly colder with temperatures likely back to the mid-to-upper 40’s for afternoon highs.
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High pressure across southeastern Canada remains in control of the weather around here for another couple of days with dry and chilly conditions. It turns milder early next week with temperatures on Monday, Christmas Day, likely to climb to the 55 degree mark for afternoon highs. The next low pressure system to impact the region pushes in this direction by Tuesday and this will enhance the chance of rain throughout the Mid-Atlantic region.
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The weather stays on the chilly side in the Mid-Atlantic region into the upcoming weekend, but becomes milder by the time we get to early next week with afternoon highs on Monday, Christmas Day, likely at or above the 50 degree mark in much of the I-95 corridor. By the next Tuesday and Wednesday, the mild weather pattern will likely result in more rain for the area as a low pressure system pulls out of the southern US and heads towards the Great Lakes. By the time we get to the end of the next week and following weekend, important upper-air changes across North America will become more evident and they should lead to colder, more winter-like, conditions in the eastern and southern US as the new year gets underway. An update is given in this posting on the teleconnection index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and a stratospheric warming event that continues to unfold which could impact US temperatures in the month of January.
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High pressure across southeastern Canada takes control of the weather today following the passage of a weak frontal system. This leads to dry and chilly conditions right into the first part of the upcoming holiday weekend. It turns milder early next week with temperatures on Monday, Christmas Day, likely to climb to near 55 degrees for afternoon highs. The next low pressure system to impact the region pushes in this direction by Tuesday and this will enhance the chance of rain throughout the Mid-Atlantic region.
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High pressure takes control of the weather today in the Mid-Atlantic region and leads to a few days of dry and seasonably cold conditions. Temperatures should peak in the middle or upper 40’s for highs next few days with overnight lows in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s.
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In the wake of the powerful storm system that brought us a lot of rainfall, winds will remain quite strong today with temperatures slightly below-normal and there can be a snow shower or two. High pressure builds in by tomorrow and the second half of the week should be dry and seasonably cold.
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The remainder of this week and the upcoming weekend are likely to be seasonably cold-to-slightly below-normal in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US, but much of the rest of the nation should be warmer-than-normal. The return to seasonal cold in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US follows what has been a very mild few days that culminated with a major rainstorm up and down the eastern seaboard. There are signs that the overall pattern will change by later next week that can result in more sustained cold for the eastern and southern states. A look at some teleconnection indices tends to support the notion of a change in the pattern that would favor more colder-than-normal air for the eastern and southern US - and potentially, an increased chance for snow as well.
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Rain winds down this morning and it becomes very windy on the back side of the departing powerhouse storm system that brought us a lot of rainfall. Winds can gust up to 50 mph from a northwesterly direction which can result in some downed tree limbs and possible. power outages. Temperatures will drop from early day highs in the 50’s to the 40’s for the bulk of the afternoon hours. There is a chance for scattered snow and/or rain showers tonight and on Tuesday and then high pressure takes over for a few days and temperatures will remain on the chilly side.
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