Showers have advanced northward into the region associated with a weakening low pressure system to our south and the shower threat will continue into the end of the week as a secondary low forms over the western Atlantic. Temperatures will generally remain on the cool side of normal given the extensive cloud cover that is expected during the new few days and the persistent onshore flow. High pressure will try to take control of the weather this weekend with the continuation of comfortable temperatures and partial sunshine on both days.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical season became more active during the past couple of weeks after a relatively quiet stretch since mid-August and it looks like the increased action will persist into October. In fact, the evolving overall weather pattern has a chance to produce a serious tropical threat in about 7 to 10 days with the likely region of interest for initial formation and intensification extending from the Caribbean Sea to the Gulf of Mexico. The movement of a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward around the global tropics will create a change in the atmosphere that will lead to enhanced upward motion later next week over the still very warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. This pattern change will enhance the chances for tropical storm formation and intensification in this part of the Atlantic Basin. All residents across the Gulf and US east coasts should keep an eye on any tropical storm formation next week as the potential for a powerful storm system is quite high.
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Low pressure that formed near the Carolina coastline has pushed inland in the overnight hours to a position over upstate South Carolina. Its rain shield is making some progress up the coast, but high pressure to the north and east is acting as a barrier to the northward advance. The threat of showers will increase here today and continue through mid-week with the heaviest total rainfall amounts likely ending up across the southern half of the DC metro region and lesser amounts across the northern Maryland suburbs.
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The week will start off on the quiet side with high pressure remaining in control leading to more rain-free and comfortable weather conditions around here although clouds will be abundant. Low pressure is intensifying along the Carolina coastline and this system will bring changes to the overall pattern with some beneficial rainfall on the way. The low makes a move inland later tonight in a northwesterly direction and rain is going to push slowly up the east coast. The threat of rain that begins here late tonight will stick around for a few days thanks to a blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere and some of the rain that falls in this unsettled stretch can be on the heavy side.
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Strong high pressure centered to our northeast will continue to control the weather around here right through the upcoming weekend. By early next week, with the strong high pressure system still positioned to our north and east, a tropical disturbance is likely to form somewhere near the Southeast US coastline. This system should then push slowly to the north potentially bringing some beneficial rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region by later Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
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Strong high pressure centered to our northeast will continue to control the weather around here right through the upcoming weekend. By early next week, with the high pressure system still to our northeast, a tropical disturbance is likely to form somewhere near the Southeast US coastline. This system could then push slowly to the north potentially bringing some rain to the Mid-Atlantic region by the middle of next week; however, the high pressure system over the NE US/SE Canada will be reluctant to give up its ground.
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Hurricane Francine is closing in on the central Louisiana coastline as a strong category 1 storm and maximum sustained winds of around 90 mph. After landfall later today, Francine will slowly weaken as it pushes in a general northeasterly direction reaching southern Mississippi by early Thursday. From there, the remnants of Francine will become increasingly influenced by very strong high pressure ridging over southern Canada and its northward progression will grind to a halt over the western part of the Tennessee Valley. With the atmospheric blocking still in place later this weekend, new low pressure is likely to form somewhere near the Carolina coastline. This system will have plenty of available tropical moisture and its rain field could push slowly to the north early next week…potentially bringing some beneficial rains to the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Strong high pressure will control the weather around here for the remainder of the week with each day featuring plenty of sunshine and comfortably warm conditions. Temperatures should peak this afternoon in the low-to-mid 80’s and then likely in the similar range for the latter part of the week and weekend. Elsewhere, on the tropical scene, Francine will approach the central coast of Louisiana later today as a strong “cat 1” hurricane or possibly even a “cat 2” and it will push northward after landfall on Thursday over the southern Mississippi Valley. A strong blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere will likely result in a halt later in the week to the northward advance of Francine’s remnants and then there is a chance that low pressure forms near the east coast early next week.
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After a lengthy quiet period in the Atlantic Basin with no named tropical storms, Tropical Storm Francine was born early Monday over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, but it has shown little in the way of additional intensification since then. However, all signs point to significant intensification of Francine from later tonight into the day on Wednesday...first into category 1 hurricane status and then possibly reaching category 2 classification later tomorrow as it approaches the Louisiana coastline. Odds favor Francine making landfall late tomorrow somewhere over the central portion of Louisiana’s coastline and its impact will be high all the way into the New Orleans metro area.
After landfall, Francine will slowly weaken on Thursday as it pushes northward over the southern Mississippi River Valley. Its northward progress will then grind to a halt by the end of the week somewhere over the middle Mississippi Valley region as it begins to become heavily influenced by very strong upper-level high pressure ridging that will park itself over the eastern part of Canada. The ultimate result in this atmospheric blocking scenario could be the formation of another low pressure system somewhere along the east coast in about a week’s time.
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Strong high pressure will control the weather around here for the remainder of the week with each day featuring plenty of sunshine and comfortably warm conditions. Temperatures should peak this afternoon near 80 degrees and then likely in the low-to-mid 80’s for the latter part of the week and upcoming weekend.
In terms of rainfall, the overall pattern will remain very dry in the Mid-Atlantic region with this high pressure system dominating the scene. In fact, tropical moisture associated with TS Francine will advance northward later in the week after a mid-week landfall in Louisiana as a hurricane. However, with the strong high in place to our northeast, the advance of the tropical moisture field will quite likely grind to a halt somewhere over the Tennessee Valley/Midwest and it’ll not be able to make it into the northeastern part of the nation.
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