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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: DC

6:30 AM | **Dry and cool for the rest of the week following today's frontal passage...another "major" hurricane headed to Florida**

Paul Dorian

A cold front will cross the area this morning and pave the way for a cool and dry rest of the week in the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures today can climb into the lower 70’s for afternoon highs and then will likely be confined to the 60’s for the rest of the week with overnight lows down in the 40’s. On the tropical scene, Milton is now a category 2 hurricane and is likely to intensify into a “major” hurricane as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico with a possible landfall on Wednesday afternoon somewhere along Florida’s west-central Gulf coast and perhaps right in the Tampa Bay region.

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6:15 AM | *Nice weather for the weekend throughout the Mid-Atlantic region...weekend auroras possible*

Paul Dorian

Weak high pressure remains in control of the weather around here today with clouds and limited sunshine expected and then another weak cool front will pass through in the overnight hours…perhaps generating a shower or two. The frontal passage later tonight will pave the way for a nice weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region with plenty of sunshine expected on both days. Another cool front will cross the area on Sunday night and Monday and this one will usher in a cool air mass with highs on Tuesday and Wednesday likely to be confined to the 60’s. Two other notes…a tropical system may form over the Gulf of Mexico by early next week with its highest chance of impact likely limited to Florida sometime later next week. Also, the strongest solar flare of the current solar cycle, #25, will impact the Earth’s atmosphere later this weekend and the potential exists for widespread auroras.

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6:15 AM | *A nice weekend shaping up for the Mid-Atlantic region*

Paul Dorian

A weak cool front crossed the area on Wednesday and high pressure will follow into the Mid-Atlantic region for the next couple of days. The weekend is shaping up quite nicely for both Saturday and Sunday likely to feature plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures. Another cool front arrives by Monday and it’ll turn slightly cooler behind it on Tuesday with highs likely confined to the 60’s.

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7:00 AM | *Frontal passage kicks out the maritime air mass...nice stretch of weather coming for Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday*

Paul Dorian

The weather pattern will change today with the passage of a weak cool frontal system which will kick out the maritime air mass that has been entrenched in the area for the past several days. Temperatures have been limited in recent days by an abundance of clouds and a persistent onshore flow of air; but they’ll return to comfortably warm levels on Thursday and Friday with the return of partial sunshine. The weather will stay quite nice in the Mid-Atlantic region for the upcoming weekend with plenty of sunshine expected on both days.

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6:15 AM | *Frontal passage on Wednesday to sweep away the entrenched moist maritime air mass...nice stretch of weather from Thursday through Sunday*

Paul Dorian

The next couple of days will remain unsettled with an upper-level trough hanging nearby and the continuation of a moist, low-level onshore flow of air. The pattern will change at mid-week with the passage of a cool frontal system that will kick the moist, maritime air mass out of here, and sunshine should return for the latter part of the week and upcoming weekend. Temperatures will remain on the cool side during the next couple of days limited by an abundance of clouds and the persistent onshore flow of air; however, they’ll return to comfortably warm levels later in the week with the return of abundant sunshine.

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*September ends with plenty of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin...a look back on the tropical season so far...a recap of Helene, and a look ahead*

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Helene made landfall on Thursday night as a category 4 “major” hurricane near Florida’s Gulf coast town of Perry and then pushed north through Georgia before grinding to a halt over the Tennessee Valley. Tremendous rainfall fell over the southern Appalachians as the result of strong and persistent upsloping winds associated with Hurricane Helene with as much as two feet in some spots and flooding was extreme. The month of September comes to an end with plenty of tropical activity to monitor in the Atlantic Basin and another system is destined for the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend or early part of next week. The tropical season in the Atlantic Basin has now resulted in 11 named tropical storms with four hurricanes having made landfall in the US, and there certainly may be other opportunities to add onto those numbers.

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7:00 AM | *Mid-week frontal passage to finally kick out moist, maritime air mass that has been stuck in the Mid-Atlantic region*

Paul Dorian

The first half of the week remains somewhat unsettled with an upper-level trough hanging nearby, a continuation of moist low-level onshore flow, and a daily threat of showers. The pattern will change at mid-week with the passage of a cool frontal system that will kick the moist, maritime air mass out of here and sunshine should rule later in the week. Temperatures in general will remain on the cool side limited by an abundance of clouds and persistent onshore flow during the next few days and will return to comfortably warm levels later in the week with the return of abundant sunshine.

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6:15 AM | **The combination of tropical moisture, persistent onshore flow, and an upper-level low will result in a daily threat of showers right through the first half of next week**

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Helen came ashore last night near Perry, Florida as a category 4 “major” hurricane and is now pushing through Georgia as a downgraded “tropical storm”. While the remnants of Hurricane Helene will never make it this far north, some of its tropical moisture field will combine with an upper-level low to produce occasional showers around here during the next few days and some of the rain can be heavy at times. In fact, the upper-level low will be such a slow-mover that the unsettled weather conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region will continue all the way through the first half of next week with the threat of showers on each day.

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2:45 PM | ****Hurricane Helene headed for Florida’s Gulf coast as a "major"...landfall early tonight...Georgia to be hit hard...southern Appalachians especially vulnerable to severe flooding****

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Helene has strengthened during the past 24 hours and is now classified as a strong category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. It should continue to intensify today as it closes in on Florida’s Gulf coast with the likelihood of reaching category 3 hurricane status featuring sustained winds of 111 mph or higher and category 4 designation is still on the table. Landfall is expected early tonight along Florida’s “Big Bend” Gulf coastal region as a “major” with a significant storm surge; especially, just to the right of the landfalling location where levels can reach 15-20 feet. With some acceleration expected later today, Helene will not have much time to weaken after landfall and, as such, it is likely to reach into southern Georgia as a hurricane during the wee hours of the morning. The lasting strength of Helene and its expected track into the Tennessee Valley assures significant impact inland to include the state of Georgia, and an especially vulnerable region is the southern Appalachian Mountains where upsloping winds can result in massive rainfall amounts of 1-2 feet and severe flash flooding.

By mid-day on Friday, the tropical system will become increasingly influenced by very strong “blocking” high pressure to the north and an upper-level trough of low pressure located in the southern Mississippi Valley. The tropical low will “rotate around” this upper-level trough of low pressure for a brief time in a pattern known to meteorologists as the “Fujiwhara effect” before it ultimately dissipates and gets absorbed by the upper-level low.

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10:15 AM - ****Hurricane Helene headed for Florida’s Gulf coast likely as a "major" with landfall early tonight...Georgia/southern Appalachians to be hit hard****

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Helene has strengthened during the past 24 hours and is now classified as a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. It should continue to intensify today as it closes in on Florida’s Gulf coast with the likelihood of reaching category 3 hurricane status featuring sustained winds of 111 mph or higher. Landfall is expected early tonight along Florida’s “Big Bend” Gulf coastal region – likely as a “major” – with a significant storm surge; especially, just to the right of the landfalling location where levels can reach 15-20 feet. With some acceleration expected later today, Helene will not have much time to weaken after landfall and, as such, it is likely to reach into southern Georgia as a hurricane during the wee hours of the morning. The lasting strength of Helene and its expected track into the Tennessee Valley assures significant impact inland to include the state of Georgia, and an especially vulnerable region is the southern Appalachian Mountains where upsloping winds can result in massive rainfall amounts of 1-2 feet and serious flash flooding.

By mid-day on Friday, the tropical system will become increasingly influenced by very strong “blocking” high pressure to the north and an upper-level trough of low pressure located in the southern Mississippi Valley. The tropical low will “rotate around” this upper-level trough of low pressure for a brief time in a pattern known to meteorologists as the “Fujiwhara effect” before it ultimately dissipates and gets absorbed by the upper-level low.

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