It is not all that unusual for the “last hurrah” of an Atlantic Basin tropical season to be followed by an influx of winter-like cold into the central and eastern US and, in some cases, it is a “pattern-changing” type of event. One such example of this kind of scenario unfolded with Hurricane Sandy at the end of October during 2012 which was then followed by a colder-than-normal month of November in almost all areas east of the Mississippi River. (In fact, cold air not only followed Hurricane Sandy, but actually wrapped into it with as much as 3 feet of snow piling up in portions of West Virginia during that event). It appears that this tropical season may finally wind down after the ultimate demise of the latest system now over the Caribbean Sea and cold air intrusions into the central and eastern may become much more commonplace beginning late next week. The tropical system is likely to intensify into a named tropical storm (“Sara”) in the near-term, but an extended time period over land will likely reduce its potential impact on the US Gulf coast.
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A cool front and a developing low pressure system will approach the I-95 corridor from the west later today and they will combine to produce rainfall in the DC metro region from mid-to-late afternoon until late tonight. High pressure returns to the region for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday leading to a 3-day stretch of dry and cool weather conditions and the wind will be quite noticeable at times.
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It is not all that unusual for the “last hurrah” of an Atlantic Basin tropical season to be followed by an influx of winter-like cold into the central and eastern US and, in some cases, it is a “pattern-changing” type of event. One such example of this kind of scenario unfolded with Hurricane Sandy at the end of October during 2012 which was then followed by a colder-than-normal November in most areas east of the Mississippi. (In fact, cold air actually wrapped into Hurricane Sandy with as much as 3 feet of snow in West Virginia during that event). It appears a tropical system now forming over the Caribbean Sea may cross the Yucatan Peninsula by early next week and it then can take a turn to the northeast. Hopefully, this tropical system will weaken during its encounter with the Yucatan Peninsula and before a possible northeast turn towards the state of Florida. At the same time, cold air will be charging southeastward from Canada into the central states and other very impressive-looking cold shots are destined to work their way into the central and eastern states later in the month.
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Some of the lowest temperatures so far this fall season have greeted this early Wednesday morning with overnight lows along the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor ranging from the upper 20’s to lower 30’s. It stays quite cool today despite plenty of sunshine and then temperatures drop to cold levels again late tonight. On Thursday, a front and its associated weak low pressure system will approach from the west and it will produce some shower activity in the Mid-Atlantic region from later in the afternoon to early tomorrow night. The best chance of showers will come south of the PA/MD border in the region from DC-to-Delmarva Peninsula with nothing more than a shower or two likely across the Philly-to-New York City corridor. High pressure returns to the region for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday leading to a 3-day stretch of dry and cool weather conditions.
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A chilly air mass will flood the Mid-Atlantic region today on the heels of a frontal passage and it can lead to the coldest night of the season so far. Temperatures today will be limited to the middle 50’s for highs and then they’ll likely drop to near 30 degrees in the late night hours. In addition to the chill, winds will become quite a factor today with gusts up to 35 mph or so out of the northwest. Temperatures late tomorrow night are likely to fall to the lower 30’s and then clouds will dominate the skies on Thursday as the next front approaches and it can be accompanied by some rain shower activity.
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A cold front will cross the region today and then a secondary cold front pushes through early Tuesday with high pressure to follow for the mid-week. Temperatures will climb into the lower 70’s later today, but will be confined to the upper 50’s for highs on Tuesday and likely the low-to-mid 50’s on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures late tomorrow night/early Wednesday can drop the lowest levels so far this season with overnight lows near the 30-degree mark in many spots. Another frontal system arrives on Thursday and it can bring more showers to the region.
One final note, the record consecutive day dry streak at Reagan National Airport (DCA) ended yesterday at 38 days…besting the previous record of 34 days set in 2007.
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The first widespread rain event in many weeks is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region from later Sunday into early Monday. Strong low pressure will push up to the northwest of here during the latter part of the weekend and it may even be able to draw some tropical moisture into the region from Hurricane Rafael. The likely rainfall amounts here should be in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range between later Sunday and early Monday. The weather pattern returns to dry and comfortably cool again during the first half of next week, but more rain is possible by Wednesday night or Thursday.
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The first widespread rain event in many weeks is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region from later Sunday into early Monday. Strong low pressure will push up to the northwest of here during the latter part of the weekend and it may even be able to draw some tropical moisture into the region from Hurricane Rafael. The likely rainfall amounts here should be in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range between later Sunday and early Monday. The weather pattern returns to dry and comfortably cool again during the first half of next week, but more rain is possible by Wednesday night or Thursday.
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Temperatures today should soar to near 80 degrees for afternoon highs which is in record-breaking territory for many locations including at Reagan National Airport (DCA) where the record is 80 degrees (2003, 1975, 1961). A cool front pushes through the region later tonight and it turns slightly cooler for the next couple of days with some sunshine expected.
Looking ahead, the weekend may actually feature the first widespread rain event in several weeks for the Mid-Atlantic region. Strong low pressure will push up to the northwest of here and this system may draw some tropical moisture (Hurricane “Rafael”) into the Mid-Atlantic region...something that would be quite beneficial to our moisture-starved part of the country.
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A warm front lifted northward through the region late yesterday and it’ll turn warmer around here for today and Wednesday. After high temperatures near 60 degrees to start the new work week, they’ll climb to the low-to-mid 70’s today and then to near 80 degrees on Wednesday which will be in record-breaking territory for some spots. The next front to arrive here will be a cold front and its passage will usher in slightly cooler air for the late week time period.
Looking ahead, the weekend may actually feature the first widespread rain event in several weeks for the Mid-Atlantic region. Strong low pressure will push up to the northwest of here and this system may draw some tropical moisture (“Rafael”) into the Mid-Atlantic region...something that would be quite beneficial to our moisture-starved part of the country.
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