Clouds, drizzle and patchy fog early today will give way to partial sunshine for the afternoon hours and it’ll become quite mild for this time of year with temperatures reaching 60 degrees in most spots. Another low pressure system and its associated cold front will bring more rain to the Mid-Atlantic region from later tomorrow into early Thursday and a colder air mass will follow for the latter part of the week. Even colder air will push into the region for the upcoming weekend and Sunday is likely to turn out to be the coldest day so far this season.
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An active weather pattern this week with multiple systems to deal with in the Mid-Atlantic region. Weak low pressure will pull away from the area this morning, but it’ll be quickly followed by another system likely to produce more rain around here from later tonight into early Tuesday. Yet another low pressure system should affect our region from later Wednesday into early Thursday bringing more rain to the region. Colder-than-normal air will follow for the late week and the upcoming weekend and it looks like it’ll stay quite cold right into the first part of Christmas week.
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It’ll stay well below-normal today in the Mid-Atlantic region, but the winds will not be a factor as they were on Thursday. An overall active weather pattern is unfolding going forward and there will be a couple systems to deal with early next week. By late Sunday, weak low pressure will bring moisture into the Mid-Atlantic region and it can be cold enough at the onset (cold air damming scenario) for a mix of snow and/or ice across some of the far N/W suburbs. Another system will follow quickly on Monday and Tuesday bringing some rain to the Mid-Atlantic region.
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The month of December has started off with a few Arctic air outbreaks into the central and eastern US and while the overall pattern may turn somewhat milder for part of next week, there are multiple signals pointing to additional cold air outbreaks from later next week into the month of January. In addition, the unfolding weather pattern appears to be quite active with numerous storm systems to deal going through the second half of the month of December.
One of the signals for additional cold air outbreaks revolves around an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO. A second centers around a phenomenon that features warming over the polar region in the upper part of the atmosphere known as the stratosphere. Finally, a teleconnection index known as the Pacific-North American (PNA) is likely to feature a positive phase for much of the rest of the month and this generally favors high pressure ridging across the western US and Canada which, in turn, is usually favorable for cold air outbreaks to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US.
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The passage of a strong cold front on Wednesday evening ushered in a much colder air mass and temperatures will remain well below-normal through Friday. Winds will stay quite strong today from a west-to-northwest direction making it feel even colder than the actual ambient temperatures. High pressure will be in charge to be the weekend and temperatures will moderate some and then a couple of low pressure systems will affect the region from Sunday night through Tuesday.
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The combination of an intensifying surface low pressure system, a strong cold front, and a deepening upper-level trough will result in additional heavy rainfall across the area and there can be a thunderstorm mixed into the picture. The passage of a cold front later today will reverse temperatures from the early day highs in the 60’s to the middle 40’s by day’s end. Much colder-than-normal air will ride in on strong NW winds during the overnight hours and temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be well below-normal for this time of year. One final note, as the initial burst of cold air pours into the late today/early tonight, there can be a brief period of snow or snow showers and small accumulations cannot be ruled out in some of the far N/W suburbs.
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There was some rainfall in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor on Monday which was certainly a welcome happening; however, overall totals were on the low side due to the quick movement of the low pressure system. The rain event coming from late Tuesday night through Wednesday will be quite a different story, however, and likely the biggest single rainstorm in this area since early June. Rainfall amounts can exceed 2 inches all along the I-95 corridor and a few thunderstorms can mix into the picture. The combination of a strong surface cold front, plenty of available moisture, and a deep upper-level trough that becomes “negatively-tilted” will lead to this heavy rain event
In addition to the rain, the winds will become an important factor; especially, along coastal sections of the eastern seaboard from the Carolinas to New England where a low-level jet is going to become very intense. In fact, there is the potential for winds to gusts to 60 mph late Wednesday across portions of eastern New England where the low-level jet will reach its greatest strength.
In terms of temperatures, it’ll be unseasonably mild through much of the day on Wednesday - ahead of the strong cold front - temperatures will drop sharply late in the day or early tonight on the heels of its passage. This cold air intrusion can lead to a brief period of snow in some of the N/W suburbs along the I-95 corridor where small accumulations cannot be ruled out this evening. Finally, this cold blast will result in yet another “Great Lakes snow event” for those areas just downstream of Lakes Erie and Ontario (e.g., Erie, PA, Watertown, NY).
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There was some welcome rainfall yesterday in the DC metro region, but it didn’t amount to all that much as the system involved was a rather quick mover. After a damp and foggy morning, another rain event is on the way and this one will be much more significant than yesterday’s with more than 2 inches on the table between later tonight and late tomorrow. In addition to the rain, the winds might become quite strong both ahead of the advancing cold front on Wednesday from a southerly direction and also on its backside on Wednesday night from a northwesterly direction. The combination of a strong surface cold front, plenty of available moisture, and a deep upper-level trough that becomes “negatively-tilted” will lead to the heavy rain event. A cold blast will follow the passage of the cold front with temperatures on both Thursday and Friday well below-normal for this time of year.
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There has been some rainfall today in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor which is certainly quite welcome; however, overall amounts will end up being on the low side. Another rain event will follow by mid-week in an active weather pattern and this one is likely to feature significant rainfall that can exceed 2 inches all along the I-95 corridor with a few thunderstorms likely to mix into the picture. In addition to the rain, the winds might become very strong both ahead of the advancing cold front from a southerly direction and also on its backside from a northwesterly direction. In fact, wind gusts to extreme levels of 80+ mph are on the table late Wednesday/Wednesday night near and along the strong cold front along the coastal sections from eastern North Carolina to eastern New England. The combination of a strong surface cold front, plenty of available moisture, and a deep upper-level trough that becomes “negatively-tilted” will lead to this heavy rain event from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. A cold blast will follow the passage of the cold front for Thursday and Friday with temperatures on both days well below-normal for this time of year.
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The overall weather pattern changed to a milder one on Sunday in the Mid-Atlantic region and it’ll become quite active as well for much of the week ahead. Some rain is likely here from later today into early tonight as a strong upper-level trough slides east from the Midwest and then a soaking rain is likely late Tuesday night and Wednesday with the approach of a strong cold frontal system. The rain can be heavy at times from late Tuesday night into Wednesday with 1-2 inches possible around here and a thunderstorm can be mixed into the picture. Following the passage of the cold front, it turns much colder here later Wednesday night and stays quite cold on Thursday and Friday with well below-normal temperatures on each of those days.
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