February can feature quite active weather across the nation with increasingly warm and humid air down across the southern states and some very cold Arctic air remaining up to the north. In fact, this kind of clash in the atmosphere appears to be setting up for next week which may lead to a storm system that features a wide range of precipitation types at mid-week from rain/thunderstorms in its warm sector to snow and ice in the cold sector. Eventually, it appears the cold air will “win” this battle and overspread the eastern half of the nation in about ten days or so. By the way, Sunday is Groundhog Day and - if I were Phil - I might be apt to see my shadow as it looks like there is plenty of cold air left in the tank for 6 more weeks of winter. Meanwhile, in the short-term, the month of January will end on a wet note in the Mid-Atlantic region with primarily a rain event from late tonight through Friday; however, accumulating snow is likely from interior New York State to New England where at least a few inches are on the table.
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It’ll be slightly colder today in the DC metro region on the back side of a frontal passage and sun will give way to increasing clouds as low pressure organizes over the Upper Midwest. A warm front will extend well to the east of the low pressure system and it’ll push in our direction later tonight spreading rain into the region that should last through much of the day on Friday. Rain has been a rare commodity in the Mid-Atlantic region during the month of January which has been drier-than-normal in the local area with a deficit of 1.41 inches. Temperatures during the day on Friday will climb into the 50’s, and then it turns moderately cold again to begin the weekend.
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A strong cold front will approach from the northwest today – the second such system in two days – and winds will pick up in intensity possibly gusting to 50 mph or so. There is the chance for an isolated afternoon rain shower, but most of the precipitation will stay to the north of here and it’ll become quite mild with afternoon highs not far from 60 degrees. However, it turns colder on Thursday and clouds will increase later in the day as low pressure intensifies over the Upper Midwest. A warm front will extend well to the east of the low pressure system and spread rain into the area late Thursday night and on Friday. Temperatures should climb well up into the 50’s on Friday to go along with the occasional rainfall, and then it turns moderately cold again this weekend.
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Winds will be rather strong for much of today in the Mid-Atlantic region with gusts up to 35 mph or so; however, a more intense and longer-lasting wind event is in store for late tonight and Wednesday associated with the next strong cold frontal system. That next cold front will be trailing a “clipper” low pressure system that passes by to the north on Wednesday, and it can help to generate 50 mph wind gusts from late tonight into late Wednesday. In terms of precipitation, there can be some snow shower/snow squall activity on Wednesday afternoon as this next cold front arrives and, as with today’s frontal system, most of the activity will be limited to the northern Mid-Atlantic.
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A couple of strong cold frontal systems dropping southeastward from Canada will impact the northeastern states both today and on Wednesday. The first of these fronts can cause strong winds around here today and there can be an isolated shower or two. The second front can produce more strong winds around here on Wednesday with gusts past 45 mph and there can be a shower as it turns milder with afternoon temperatures in the 50’s. Low pressure to our west will try to push a warm front through the area later in the week and there can be some rain around here from late Thursday into Friday.
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After a cold, dry and quiet weekend, high pressure will remain in control as we start the new work week and west-to-southwest winds will strengthen as the pressure gradient tightens between low pressure to the north and high pressure building in from the southwest. A couple of strong cold frontal systems dropping southeastward from Canada will impact the northeastern states on both Tuesday and Wednesday. The first of these fronts can cause windy conditions on Tuesday with the chance of a shower around here. The second front will also generate windy conditions around here at mid-week with the possibility of a shower or two. At the end of the work week, low pressure to our west will try to push a warm front through our region and there can be some rain from later Friday into Saturday.
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Arctic high pressure will push offshore today and this will be followed by a cold frontal passage later tonight. High pressure will then re-establish for this weekend and early next week and help to produce a stretch of cold and dry days around here. A “clipper” system will approach from the northwest by the middle of next week and it could produce some snow which - more than likely - would be confined to the northern half of the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Arctic high pressure will push offshore today and this will allow for a bit of moderation in temperatures, but they’ll remain at well below-normal levels for this time of year. Temperatures should climb to near freezing this afternoon, but will drop to very cold levels again late tonight near the 15-degree mark. High pressure will return to the region this weekend and then a cold front arrives late Sunday probably on the dry side.
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Bitter cold Arctic air persists across much of the nation with numerous daily low temperature records set across the southern and eastern states. In fact, a few all-time low temperature records were set this morning across southern Louisiana where clear skies, light winds, and a fresh, deep snowpack allowed temperatures to plunge to single digit levels across the region. A rare major winter storm has brought significant accumulating snow across the southern US from Texas-to-Florida-to-the Carolinas and, in some cases, this matched or surpassed the great winter storm of February 1895. The precipitation field associated with this southern storm will push off the southeast coast today, but the bitter cold will persist for a bit longer.
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Arctic high pressure will settle over the area today and then moves offshore on Thursday. As a result, it’ll remain bitterly cold for another day around here with afternoon highs near 20 degrees and overnight temperatures should drop to near 10 degrees. With the high pressure offshore on Thursday, there will some moderation in temperatures and afternoon highs both tomorrow and Friday should be in the middle-to-upper 20’s.
Elsewhere, the southern states from Texas to the Carolinas continue to suffer through unusual severe winter weather conditions during this nationwide Arctic air outbreak. Accumulating snow fell yesterday on Houston, Texas on the order of 4 inches or so (their 2nd biggest snowstorm) and as much as 10 inches on New Orleans, Louisiana. And perhaps most amazing of all, there are single digits temperatures this morning across southern Louisiana.
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