An active weather pattern will grip much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation over the next several days that will include a tropical storm, a severe weather threat from the Upper Midwest-to-Ohio Valley-to-Northeast US and then a blast of unseasonably cool air for much of the northeastern quadrant of the nation. The tropical wave is now pushing over the southern Gulf of Mexico and is likely to maintain a northerly track and reach the northern Gulf coastal region of Louisiana by later Friday night. After landfall, this tropical system will then move to the northeast and there is a chance that it actually strengthens some over land which is somewhat contrary to normal trends with tropical cyclones. In addition to the tropical activity, a severe weather threat will begin later Thursday across the Upper Midwest and will shift east tomorrow to the Ohio Valley and then perhaps into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by later Friday night and Saturday. All of this active weather will be swept eastward on Tuesday with the passage of a powerful cold front that will usher in another much cooler-than-normal air mass for the northeastern quadrant of the nation.
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A tropical wave will begin to turn the north today over the southern Gulf of Mexico and it is likely to intensify into tropical storm status by later Friday. On Saturday, this tropical storm is likely to be nearing the central Gulf coastal region and rainfall could spread into Mississippi and Alabama. After landfall, the tropical wave is likely to push to the northeast with its leftover rains moving into the Tennessee Valley on Sunday and Carolinas and Virginia by Monday. If this system does indeed reach tropical storm status (and that is quite probable), it would take on the name of “Claudette”.
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There have been a couple of named tropical systems so far in the Atlantic Basin, but neither one was of much consequence and had little to no impact on the US mainland. A third tropical wave now drifting over Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico is likely to intensify into at least tropical storm status in coming days as it turns to the north, if so, it would become named “Claudette”. The track of this system is likely to bring it to the central Gulf coastal region during the early part of the upcoming weekend and then its remains are likely to push northeastward into the Tennessee Valley on Sunday and then the Carolinas/Virginia on Monday. There is even a chance that the remains of the tropical system strengthen after moving over land - contrary to normal trends for tropical systems - and it could get intertwined with an approaching cold frontal system to produce rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region early next week.
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Deep upper-level low pressure has moved over the northeastern quadrant of the nation keeping that area quite comfortable and we’ll experience slightly cooler-than-normal temperatures here in northern Alabama at mid-week. At the same time we’re enjoying decent weather conditions in the Tennessee Valley, much of the western US is suffering through some excessive heat as intense upper-level high pressure dominates that part of the nation. For example, Phoenix, AZ may experience high temperatures near the 120 degree mark later in the week and Death Valley, CA could reach 125 degrees. Elsewhere, it looks like the Gulf of Mexico will feature a tropical system by the end of the week and this system could move northward towards Texas/Louisiana by the late weekend/early part of next week.
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The overall weather pattern is undergoing some changes this week with the main features being upper-level ridging that will expand and intensify over the western US and a vigorous upper-level trough that’ll reach the Northeast US by mid-week. Temperatures around here will climb to between 85 and 90 degrees for much of the week and rain chances will be rather limited. Elsewhere, it looks like there will be a tropical system later this week or by this weekend over the Gulf of Mexico - perhaps the first important system of the young 2021 Atlantic Basin tropical season.
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The overall weather pattern will undergo some changes over the next several days with the main features being strong upper-level ridging over the western states and a vigorous upper-level trough over the Northeast US. Temperatures here will climb toward the 90 degree mark each day through the weekend and early part of next week, but likely drop some at mid-week as the upper-level low intensifies to our north. Looking ahead, there are increasing signs for the first tropical activity of the Atlantic Basin season with potential activity over the Gulf of Mexico by the third week of June.
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The unsettled weather pattern continues today with additional showers and thunderstorms possible across the Tennessee Valley though likely not as widespread as yesterday. There will be a frontal boundary zone draped across the northern part of Alabama over the next 24 hours or so helping to keep the atmosphere unstable and continuing our chance for rain. Precipitation chances may be somewhat limited on Saturday and then a drier and warmer pattern is likely to set in early next week.
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The main player this week continues to be strong high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean which is pumping into the region very warm and humid air. The high moisture content of this air mass will help to keep it unsettled through the weekend with a daily shot at showers and thunderstorms across northern Alabama.
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An upper-level trough will shift into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today and the end result will be a continuation of scattered showers and thunderstorms across northern Alabama. The threat for rain will be highest during the PM hours and any shower or storm can produce some heavy rainfall. The active weather pattern will continue late this week with a stalled out frontal boundary zone acting as a conduit for moisture to ride along across the southeastern states.
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The main player this week will be strong high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean which will continuously pump into the region very warm and humid air. The high moisture content of this air mass will help to keep it unsettled with a daily shot at showers and thunderstorms across northern Alabama.
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