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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: HSV

10:00 AM (Tuesday) | ***Severe weather outbreak next couple days likely to include numerous tornadoes… significant snow in the cold sector…strong storms possible near east coast on Thursday***

Paul Dorian

One of the key ingredients in this upcoming severe weather outbreak will be the intensification of an upper-level jet (300 mb) which will combine with an low-level jet (850 mb) to generate deep-layer wind shear in the atmosphere. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather

Overview

There have been back-to-back weeks with severe weather outbreaks in the US and another one is on the way. Severe weather including the threat for tornadoes is likely from later today into the overnight hours across the Mississippi Valley and then the risk shifts to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.  One of the key ingredients for the severe weather outbreak will be a strong surface cold front and it reaches the east coast later Thursday and there can be strong-to-severe storms in that region as well.  Other ingredients include multiple jet streaks in the atmosphere which will enhance the chance for rotation and tornadic activity.  In the cold sector of the storm, significant snow is going to fall during the next couple of days from the Rockies to the Dakotas/northern Minnesota. Looking ahead, this may be the end of the severe weather outbreaks for awhile warm air may finally flood the central and eastern states later next week.

One of the key ingredients in this upcoming severe weather outbreak will be the intensification of a low-level jet (850 mb) which will combine with an upper-level jet (300 mb) to generate deep-layer wind shear in the atmosphere. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather

Details

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes from later today into the overnight hours across the Mississippi Valley region from Iowa/Illinois to the north and eastern Texas/Louisiana in the south. In much the same manner as with recent severe weather outbreaks, a vigorous upper-level trough will help to spawn cyclogenesis in the middle of the nation at the same time high-level ridging intensifies over the eastern states.  An intensifying upper-level jet streak (southwesterly) will push into the Great Plains and then the Mississippi Valley region and a low-level jet (southerly) will become involved as well.  The combination of these two jet streaks will lead to deep-layer wind shear in the warm sector of the surface low pressure system potentially leading to supercells capable of producing tornadoes. In addition, torrential rain and hail will be on the table with this severe weather outbreak.

Severe weather is a threat from later today into the overnight hours across much of the Mississippi Valley region and this risk will shift to the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes/Midwest on Wednesday. Map courtesy NOAA/Storm Prediction Center

By tomorrow, the threat of severe weather will shift slightly to the east with thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes extending from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley and southwestward back into the Lower Mississippi Valley. As the cold front pushes to the east on Wednesday, the cold and dry air mass on its backside will clash with warm and humid air all the way up into the Great Lakes region from the Gulf of Mexico.  This same front will push towards the eastern seaboard on Thursday and there can be strong-to-severe thunderstorms in the I-95 corridor later in the day or early Thursday night. 

The cold front clears the east coast by Friday and sets the stage for quieter weather in the northeastern states on Friday and through the upcoming Easter weekend. It will turn cooler on Friday with a chilly air mass moving into the Northeast US/Mid-Atlantic anchored by high pressure with its origins in Canada. There should be plenty of sunshine on both days; however, it’ll feel quite cool in the shade or during the nights. Looking ahead, there are signs for a widespread warm air surge later next week into the central and eastern US - eliminating that “battleground” region in the middle of the country - and this could very well make this upcoming severe weather outbreak the last one in an extended period of time.

There will be significant accumulating snow over the next couple of days in the cold sector of this storm from the Rockies to the Dakotas/northern Minnesota. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather

One final note, this unfolding weather pattern will not only produce numerous tornadoes from later today into Wednesday in the latest in a series of severe weather outbreaks, it is likely to also result in significant accumulating snow. Specifically, the region from the Rockies to the Dakotas/northern Minnesota will see some substantial snowfall during the next 72 hours or so with as much as 1-2 feet in some locations. Ultimately, the accumulating snow will reach the northern part of New England with Maine, for example, likely to receive several inches by late in the week.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com

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categories DC, HSV, Medium Range Outlooks, NYC, PHL
tags Featured

7:00 AM | ***Another severe weather outbreak on the way for the Mississippi Valley***

Paul Dorian

Today will likely be the nicest day of the week and perhaps the only completely dry day.  An upper-level trough of low pressure will dig in across the Rockies and a surface low pressure system will form in the middle of the country.  A cold front will slide in this direction on Wednesday reaching the northern part of Alabama on Wednesday night and this will cause an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms. In fact, some of the late day/evening storms on Wednesday can reach severe levels and some of the rain can be heavy at times. It turns cooler on Thursday, but the chance of showers and thunderstorms will likely continue with the cold front remining in nearby proximity.

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categories HSV

10:30 AM | ***Another severe weather outbreak on the way from later tomorrow into Wednesday likely to include numerous tornadoes…substantial accumulating snow from the Rockies to the Dakotas***

Paul Dorian

There have been back-to-back weeks with severe weather outbreaks in the US and it looks like another one is on the way from later tomorrow into Wednesday.  The areas of concern include the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and the ingredients that will come together to destabilize the atmosphere include jet streaks at multiple layers, cold, dry air mass charging to the south and east, and warm, humid air flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Tornadoes are running at above-normal levels across the nation so far this season thanks in large part to the recent two outbreaks and, unfortunately, many more are likely from later tomorrow into Wednesday. Meanwhile, in the cold sector of the storm system, the air will be cold enough for accumulating snow all the way from the Rockies to the Dakotas and, in some spots, this could amount to as much as 1-2 feet.

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categories DC, HSV, Medium Range Outlooks, NYC, PHL
tags Featured

7:00 AM | *An unsettled week in the Tennessee Valley*

Paul Dorian

The new work week will start off on the unsettled side with another system bringing us the chance of showers and thunderstorms and that threat continues into mid-week. Temperatures should reach the lower 70’s this afternoon and then an increasingly strong southerly flow should boost temperatures to near 80 degrees for highs on Tuesday and Wednesday.

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categories HSV

7:00 AM | ***Severe weather outbreak later tonight in the Mississippi Valley region...northern Alabama can be impacted as well***

Paul Dorian

A severe weather outbreak is likely later tonight centered in the central and northern Mississippi Valley region; however, even northern Alabama can be impacted. A strong cold front will sweep through the region later tonight and it will feature a line of thunderstorms - some of which can be strong-to-severe.  The potential exists for damaging wind gusts around here with this frontal system and isolated tornadoes and hail are on the table. 

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categories HSV

9:30 AM | ****Severe weather/tornado outbreak on Friday night in the Mississippi Valley…damaging winds gusts Ohio Valley/eastern US later Friday and Saturday associated with strong cold front****

Paul Dorian

Tornadoes are running at above-normal levels across the nation so far this season and there is the likelihood for another outbreak on Friday night centered on the Mississippi Valley region. In much the same manner as at the end of the last week, the atmosphere will become very unstable by Friday night in the Mississippi Valley region with a multitude of ingredients coming together including vigorous upper-level support, an intrusion of warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a strong surface cold front, and an influx of cold, dry air from the north and west behind it. A similar weather pattern late last week resulted in an outbreak of tornadoes across Mississippi and Alabama that tragically resulted in the death of at least 26 people. The powerful cold front that will play a major role in the severe weather outbreak on Friday night will plow eastward through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and into the eastern states possibly resulting in damaging wind gusts of 50-60 mph in those sections of the country.

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categories DC, HSV, Medium Range Outlooks, NYC, PHL
tags Featured

7:00 AM | ***Severe weather outbreak on the table on Friday night with a focus on the Mississippi Valley***

Paul Dorian

There is a severe weather threat later Friday night likely centered in the central and northern Mississippi Valley region; however, northern Alabama can be impacted as well.  A strong cold front will sweep through the region on Friday night and it will feature a line of thunderstorms - some of which can be strong-to-severe.  The potential exists for damaging wind gusts with this frontal system and tornadoes and hail are on the table. 

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categories HSV

9:30 AM | **Potential exists for a severe weather outbreak on Friday night in the Mississippi Valley…powerful cold front reaches the eastern US on Saturday with possible damaging wind gusts**

Paul Dorian

Tornadoes are running at above-normal levels across the nation so far this season and there is the potential for another severe weather outbreak at the end of this week.  In much the same manner as at the end of the last week, the atmosphere will become very unstable by Friday night in the Mississippi Valley region with a multitude of ingredients coming together including vigorous upper-level support, an intrusion of warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico, and an influx of cold, dry air from the north and west. A similar weather pattern late last week resulted in an outbreak of tornadoes across Mississippi and Alabama that tragically resulted in the death of at least 26 people. The powerful cold front that will play a major role in the late week severe weather threat in the Mississippi Valley will plow through the Ohio Valley and into the eastern states on Saturday possibly resulting in damaging wind gusts of 50-60 mph in those sections of the country.

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categories DC, HSV, Medium Range Outlooks, NYC, PHL
tags Featured

7:00 AM | **Potential for another severe weather outbreak southern states/MS Valley at the end of the week**

Paul Dorian

A cold front passed through the region on Monday and temperatures today will be some 5-10 degrees lower than yesterday resulting in afternoon highs in the middle 60’s. High pressure will take control of the weather for Wednesday and Thursday and then attention will turn to another volatile setup for the end of the week.  A strong cold front will approach the region by week’s end and we could end up with another severe weather outbreak in the southern states with showers and the potential for strong-to-severe thunderstorms.

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categories HSV