A line of thunderstorms extends this morning all the way from Texas to the central Great Lakes and tornado watches as issued by the National Weather Service encompass this entire zone. This severe weather outbreak represents just the latest in a series of recent “clashes” in the atmosphere between cold, dry air to the west charging into warm, humid air to the east. Strong surface low pressure over the northwestern Great Lakes is generating blizzard conditions across the Dakotas and a powerful surface cold front extends from the center all the way south into the northern Gulf region. This same cold front reaches the eastern seaboard later Thursday and while certainly not as widespread of a threat as today, there is the chance for some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity near the coast. Following the passage of the cold front, a chilly Canadian-borne air mass will push into the Great Lakes/Northeast/Mid-Atlantic for the upcoming Easter weekend.
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A cold front will slide in this direction today and the chance for showers and thunderstorms will be on the rise. In fact, there is a chance for some heavy rain by early tonight and strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity is possible this evening and through the overnight hours. The cold front will stall out in the nearby vicinity on Friday and it’ll turn cooler, but remain unsettled with a continuing chance of showers. In fact, the threat of showers will continue through the first half of the weekend before high pressure takes back control in time for Easter Sunday.
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Today will likely be the nicest day of the week and perhaps the only completely dry day. An upper-level trough of low pressure will dig in across the Rockies and a surface low pressure system will form in the middle of the country. A cold front will slide in this direction on Wednesday reaching the northern part of Alabama on Wednesday night and this will cause an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms. In fact, some of the late day/evening storms on Wednesday can reach severe levels and some of the rain can be heavy at times. It turns cooler on Thursday, but the chance of showers and thunderstorms will likely continue with the cold front remining in nearby proximity.
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There have been back-to-back weeks with severe weather outbreaks in the US and it looks like another one is on the way from later tomorrow into Wednesday. The areas of concern include the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and the ingredients that will come together to destabilize the atmosphere include jet streaks at multiple layers, cold, dry air mass charging to the south and east, and warm, humid air flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Tornadoes are running at above-normal levels across the nation so far this season thanks in large part to the recent two outbreaks and, unfortunately, many more are likely from later tomorrow into Wednesday. Meanwhile, in the cold sector of the storm system, the air will be cold enough for accumulating snow all the way from the Rockies to the Dakotas and, in some spots, this could amount to as much as 1-2 feet.
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The new work week will start off on the unsettled side with another system bringing us the chance of showers and thunderstorms and that threat continues into mid-week. Temperatures should reach the lower 70’s this afternoon and then an increasingly strong southerly flow should boost temperatures to near 80 degrees for highs on Tuesday and Wednesday.
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A severe weather outbreak is likely later tonight centered in the central and northern Mississippi Valley region; however, even northern Alabama can be impacted. A strong cold front will sweep through the region later tonight and it will feature a line of thunderstorms - some of which can be strong-to-severe. The potential exists for damaging wind gusts around here with this frontal system and isolated tornadoes and hail are on the table.
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Tornadoes are running at above-normal levels across the nation so far this season and there is the likelihood for another outbreak on Friday night centered on the Mississippi Valley region. In much the same manner as at the end of the last week, the atmosphere will become very unstable by Friday night in the Mississippi Valley region with a multitude of ingredients coming together including vigorous upper-level support, an intrusion of warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a strong surface cold front, and an influx of cold, dry air from the north and west behind it. A similar weather pattern late last week resulted in an outbreak of tornadoes across Mississippi and Alabama that tragically resulted in the death of at least 26 people. The powerful cold front that will play a major role in the severe weather outbreak on Friday night will plow eastward through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and into the eastern states possibly resulting in damaging wind gusts of 50-60 mph in those sections of the country.
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There is a severe weather threat later Friday night likely centered in the central and northern Mississippi Valley region; however, northern Alabama can be impacted as well. A strong cold front will sweep through the region on Friday night and it will feature a line of thunderstorms - some of which can be strong-to-severe. The potential exists for damaging wind gusts with this frontal system and tornadoes and hail are on the table.
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High pressure will take control of the weather for today and Thursday and then attention will turn to another volatile setup for the end of the week. A strong cold front will approach the region by week’s end and we could end up with another round of strong thunderstorms across northern Alabama later Friday into Friday night.
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