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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information
Filtering by Category: HSV
High pressure will continue to produce dry weather around here with comfortable temperatures likely peaking later today in the middle 70’s. Low pressure over the northern Gulf coast will then generate some moisture for the Tennessee Valley and our chance for showers will be higher during much of the second half of the week.
Read MoreThe next couple of days will remain quiet in the Tennessee Valley as high pressure shifts to a position off the east coast. It’ll remain on the mild side with a low-level southwesterly flow of air on the back side of the high pressure system. A frontal system will bring more unsettled weather back to the area during the second half of the week with the return for a chance of showers.
Read MoreThe first half of the week will be relatively quiet in the Tennessee Valley as high pressure shifts to a position off the east coast. It’ll turn increasingly mild over the next few days with a southwesterly flow of air on the back side of the departing high pressure system. A frontal system may create some shower activity later in the week, but temperatures should remain on the mild side.
Read MoreA cold front has stalled out in the vicinity and this system will bring keep us unsettled around here for the next couple of days. As a result, there is the chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms from today through tomorrow night. High pressure will finally take control of the weather for the second half of the weekend and Easter Sunday should feature some sunshine and slightly milder conditions.
Read MoreA cold front will stall out nearby today and this will bring us cooler air and keep it unsettled around here for the next few days. As a result, there is the chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms today, tonight and on Friday and that threat of rain will continue into the weekend. High pressure will finally take control for the second half of the weekend and Easter Sunday should feature some sunshine and slightly milder conditions.
Read MoreA line of thunderstorms extends this morning all the way from Texas to the central Great Lakes and tornado watches as issued by the National Weather Service encompass this entire zone. This severe weather outbreak represents just the latest in a series of recent “clashes” in the atmosphere between cold, dry air to the west charging into warm, humid air to the east. Strong surface low pressure over the northwestern Great Lakes is generating blizzard conditions across the Dakotas and a powerful surface cold front extends from the center all the way south into the northern Gulf region. This same cold front reaches the eastern seaboard later Thursday and while certainly not as widespread of a threat as today, there is the chance for some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity near the coast. Following the passage of the cold front, a chilly Canadian-borne air mass will push into the Great Lakes/Northeast/Mid-Atlantic for the upcoming Easter weekend.
Read MoreA cold front will slide in this direction today and the chance for showers and thunderstorms will be on the rise. In fact, there is a chance for some heavy rain by early tonight and strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity is possible this evening and through the overnight hours. The cold front will stall out in the nearby vicinity on Friday and it’ll turn cooler, but remain unsettled with a continuing chance of showers. In fact, the threat of showers will continue through the first half of the weekend before high pressure takes back control in time for Easter Sunday.
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One of the key ingredients in this upcoming severe weather outbreak will be the intensification of an upper-level jet (300 mb) which will combine with an low-level jet (850 mb) to generate deep-layer wind shear in the atmosphere. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather
Overview
There have been back-to-back weeks with severe weather outbreaks in the US and another one is on the way. Severe weather including the threat for tornadoes is likely from later today into the overnight hours across the Mississippi Valley and then the risk shifts to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. One of the key ingredients for the severe weather outbreak will be a strong surface cold front and it reaches the east coast later Thursday and there can be strong-to-severe storms in that region as well. Other ingredients include multiple jet streaks in the atmosphere which will enhance the chance for rotation and tornadic activity. In the cold sector of the storm, significant snow is going to fall during the next couple of days from the Rockies to the Dakotas/northern Minnesota. Looking ahead, this may be the end of the severe weather outbreaks for awhile warm air may finally flood the central and eastern states later next week.
One of the key ingredients in this upcoming severe weather outbreak will be the intensification of a low-level jet (850 mb) which will combine with an upper-level jet (300 mb) to generate deep-layer wind shear in the atmosphere. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather
Details
There is a risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes from later today into the overnight hours across the Mississippi Valley region from Iowa/Illinois to the north and eastern Texas/Louisiana in the south. In much the same manner as with recent severe weather outbreaks, a vigorous upper-level trough will help to spawn cyclogenesis in the middle of the nation at the same time high-level ridging intensifies over the eastern states. An intensifying upper-level jet streak (southwesterly) will push into the Great Plains and then the Mississippi Valley region and a low-level jet (southerly) will become involved as well. The combination of these two jet streaks will lead to deep-layer wind shear in the warm sector of the surface low pressure system potentially leading to supercells capable of producing tornadoes. In addition, torrential rain and hail will be on the table with this severe weather outbreak.
Severe weather is a threat from later today into the overnight hours across much of the Mississippi Valley region and this risk will shift to the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes/Midwest on Wednesday. Map courtesy NOAA/Storm Prediction Center
By tomorrow, the threat of severe weather will shift slightly to the east with thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes extending from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley and southwestward back into the Lower Mississippi Valley. As the cold front pushes to the east on Wednesday, the cold and dry air mass on its backside will clash with warm and humid air all the way up into the Great Lakes region from the Gulf of Mexico. This same front will push towards the eastern seaboard on Thursday and there can be strong-to-severe thunderstorms in the I-95 corridor later in the day or early Thursday night.
The cold front clears the east coast by Friday and sets the stage for quieter weather in the northeastern states on Friday and through the upcoming Easter weekend. It will turn cooler on Friday with a chilly air mass moving into the Northeast US/Mid-Atlantic anchored by high pressure with its origins in Canada. There should be plenty of sunshine on both days; however, it’ll feel quite cool in the shade or during the nights. Looking ahead, there are signs for a widespread warm air surge later next week into the central and eastern US - eliminating that “battleground” region in the middle of the country - and this could very well make this upcoming severe weather outbreak the last one in an extended period of time.
There will be significant accumulating snow over the next couple of days in the cold sector of this storm from the Rockies to the Dakotas/northern Minnesota. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather
One final note, this unfolding weather pattern will not only produce numerous tornadoes from later today into Wednesday in the latest in a series of severe weather outbreaks, it is likely to also result in significant accumulating snow. Specifically, the region from the Rockies to the Dakotas/northern Minnesota will see some substantial snowfall during the next 72 hours or so with as much as 1-2 feet in some locations. Ultimately, the accumulating snow will reach the northern part of New England with Maine, for example, likely to receive several inches by late in the week.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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Today will likely be the nicest day of the week and perhaps the only completely dry day. An upper-level trough of low pressure will dig in across the Rockies and a surface low pressure system will form in the middle of the country. A cold front will slide in this direction on Wednesday reaching the northern part of Alabama on Wednesday night and this will cause an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms. In fact, some of the late day/evening storms on Wednesday can reach severe levels and some of the rain can be heavy at times. It turns cooler on Thursday, but the chance of showers and thunderstorms will likely continue with the cold front remining in nearby proximity.
Read MoreThere have been back-to-back weeks with severe weather outbreaks in the US and it looks like another one is on the way from later tomorrow into Wednesday. The areas of concern include the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and the ingredients that will come together to destabilize the atmosphere include jet streaks at multiple layers, cold, dry air mass charging to the south and east, and warm, humid air flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Tornadoes are running at above-normal levels across the nation so far this season thanks in large part to the recent two outbreaks and, unfortunately, many more are likely from later tomorrow into Wednesday. Meanwhile, in the cold sector of the storm system, the air will be cold enough for accumulating snow all the way from the Rockies to the Dakotas and, in some spots, this could amount to as much as 1-2 feet.
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