We have entered the second half of August and this is typically when tropical activity ramps up in the Atlantic Basin. Indeed, there are a couple of impressive waves to watch in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean and there may be a threat to deal with in the eastern US/Gulf of Mexico by the last week of August; however, of more immediate concern is the current activity in the eastern Pacific Ocean. There is a growing chance that significant moisture from a tropical system makes its way into the Southwest US by later this weekend and early next week - and this includes a very real threat for excessive rainfall across southern California. In addition, winds may become quite high depending on the ultimate storm track that this developing tropical system undertakes.
Elsewhere, a building ridge of high pressure in the upper part of the atmosphere will result in an intensifying heat wave by this weekend across the central states and it is likely to expand to the Great Lakes and Midwest. While the heat may ultimately expand all the way into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US, this would be just a one or two day affair and the overall weather pattern for the northeastern states remains quite favorable for very comfortable air masses to reach this area from central Canada.
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In the wake of a cool frontal passage, conditions will remain quite comfortable here at mid-week across the northern part of Alabama. Temperatures will be generally confined to the 80’s for highs during the remainder of the work. It does look like hotter weather will return later this weekend and early next week with highs likely back up to the lower or middle 90’s.
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A strong cool front passed through the region in the overnight hours and the heat of yesterday will be replaced by a much more comfortable air mass here on Tuesday. High temperatures on Monday were well up in the 90’s across northern Alabama, but are likely to be confined to the lower 80’s this afternoon. High pressure will build into the region today in the wake of the frontal passage and the second half of the week will feature warm and dry conditions in the Tennessee Valley.
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Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms rocked the Mid-Atlantic region last Monday and a somewhat similar overall weather pattern can bring a repeat performance from late today into Tuesday. In a situation like a week ago, several ingredients will come together in the atmosphere that will raise the chance for heavy downpours and severe thunderstorms which can produce damaging wind gusts, hail and even isolated tornadoes. These ingredients include a vigorous upper-level low that is currently pushing eastward across the Upper Mississippi Valley, copious amounts of available moisture, strong jet streaks at multiple levels of the atmosphere, and a strong surface cool front that ultimately crosses the Mid-Atlantic region late Tuesday. The time period for the potential heavy downpours and severe thunderstorms will be from late today into Tuesday night.
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A potent upper-level low drops from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes as we begin the new work week. This trough of low pressure and its associated strong cold front will arrive here tonight and the result will be an increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will drop noticeably on Tuesday following a hot day on Monday with highs this afternoon well up in the 90’s.
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Rather typical summertime weather across the region for the next few days with mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms and temperatures peaking in the upper 80’s or lower 90’s. Rain chances should be somewhat lower this weekend as disturbances generally stay well to the north of the region.
Note - Perseid meteor shower peaks late Saturday night into early Sunday morning
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The active weather of Wednesday will calm down some today as a cool front slowly sags to the south of here. Some drier air will push southward into the Tennessee valley as the day progresses reducing the chances for any rainfall. An upper-level ridge of high pressure will then take control on Friday and temperatures will climb back to the 90 degree mark for highs and likely reach it each day this weekend.
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A widespread severe wind event rocked the Mid-Atlantic region this past Monday and a key ingredient was a vigorous wave of low pressure aloft that crossed the Great Lakes on a path towards the northern Mid-Atlantic. Other ingredients included multiple jet streaks in the atmosphere, a strong surface cool front, and an influx of very moist air from the southeastern states on the front side of the front. A similar overall weather pattern may repeat itself from later Monday into Monday night. While still several days away, many of these same factors may indeed come together early next week and the result can be another round of heavy showers and strong-to-severe thunderstorms for the Mid-Atlantic region.
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An unsettled weather pattern will continue through the week in the Tennessee Valley as a frontal system just to the south of here helps to keep the atmosphere somewhat unstable. Temperatures will generally peak in the mid and upper 80’s over the next couple of days and then climb towards the 90 degree mark for highs on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
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An unsettled weather pattern remains intact across the Tennessee Valley as a strong cool front stalls out in the nearby vicinity. At the same time, another upper-level low will head in this direction and the chance for showers and storms will ramp up again later today and stick with us for much of the reminder of the week.
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