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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: HSV

7:00 AM | *Nice today with plenty of sunshine and afternoon highs in the middle 70's*

Paul Dorian

A Gulf of Mexico low pressure system will be aided by moisture from the Pacific Ocean (remnants of Hurricane Lidia) and will spread some heavy rainfall to the southern sections of Mississippi and Alabama as it treks in an east-to-northeast direction. While the heaviest rainfall looks like it will stay to the south of here, showers are on the table for northern Alabama.

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7:00 AM | **A tropical low forms later today over the western Gulf of Mexico and will then spread some heavy rainfall to the northern Gulf coastal region**

Paul Dorian

An upper-level trough of low pressure will deepen as it treks across the northern states in coming days at the same time a tropical low pressure system forms over the western Gulf of Mexico. This Gulf low will be aided by moisture from the Pacific Ocean (remnants of Hurricane Lidia) and will spread some heavy rainfall to the southern sections of Mississippi and Alabama as it treks in an east-to-northeast direction. While the heaviest rainfall looks like it will stay to the south of here, showers are on the table for northern Alabama later in the week.

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9:30 AM | **Pacific Ocean-to-Gulf of Mexico "tropical hand-off"…yet another weekend rain event Mid-Atlantic region**

Paul Dorian

Two big weather stories over the next several days will include a Pacific Ocean-to-Gulf of Mexico “tropical hand-off” and yet another weekend rain event is in the cards for the Mid-Atlantic region. Hurricane Lidia will head into western Mexico later today and some of its tropical moisture will make it across Mexico at mid-week giving a boost to a tropical wave sitting over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Surface low pressure with a Pacific Ocean-to-Gulf of Mexico tropical connection will form by later tomorrow over the western Gulf and then spread some heavy rainfall across the northern Gulf/Southeast US as it takes a path to the east-to-northeast.

Meanwhile, a deepening upper-level low pressure system will cross the nation from west-to-east in coming days and set off the development of surface low pressure over the Ohio valley by week’s end. This primary or initial low will then give way to a secondary low pressure system likely to form early this weekend along the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The result will continue a recent trend in the Mid-Atlantic region with some weekend rain and very cool conditions featuring a persistent onshore flow of air.

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7:00 AM | *Temperatures climb to near 80 degrees today...cooler weather by the weekend*

Paul Dorian

A weak disturbance can produce some clouds in the area today, but for the most part, it looks like a dry and warm across the northern part of Alabama. Low pressure will form over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours and we’ll have to keep an eye on its precipitation field as it pushes to the northeast. Currently, it appears as though the main area of rainfall will stay to the south of here, but showers are still a threat from tomorrow night into Thursday.

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7:00 AM | **The passage of a strong cold front will usher in the coolest air mass so far this fall season**

Paul Dorian

A strong cold front arrives here later today and its passage will result in a much cooler weekend in the Tennessee Valley. The influx of the coolest air mass so far this fall season will take place tonight as northwesterly winds pick up in intensity and temperatures by early Saturday will be in the mid-to-upper 40’s. It stays breezy and cool on Saturday and then temperatures will drop to near the 40 degree mark by early Sunday morning. A gradual warmup early next week will bring temperatures back to near 80 degrees for afternoon highs at mid-week.

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12:00 PM | **Tropical Storm Philippe to energize incoming “pattern-changing” upper-level trough…Pacific Ocean tropical storm may cross Mexico and spawn Gulf of Mexico system**

Paul Dorian

Tropical systems in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans may impact the weather across the US in coming days in somewhat unusual manners. Tropical Storm Philippe has been meandering over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean recently and it will soon accelerate to the north and impact Maine/Nova Scotia with rain and wind later this weekend. After that, the remnants of TS Philippe will get “absorbed” into an incoming upper-level trough over the southeastern part of Canada. This influx of tropical moisture into the upper-level trough will act to energize the system and it will become a big contributor to a temperature pattern change in the eastern states with much cooler weather from this weekend and well into next week. Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific Ocean is now featuring multiple tropical systems and one of these is likely hit the west coast of Mexico by the middle of next week. After that, this tropical system that originated in the Pacific Ocean is likely to cross over Mexico and help to spawn tropical activity over the Gulf of Mexico which potentially can result in rain across the southeastern states.

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2:15 PM | **Cold shot arrives this weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region and others are likely to follow this month...Tropical Storm Philippe gets absorbed into the pattern-changing upper-level trough**

Paul Dorian

Temperatures are some 10+ degrees above-normal today in the Mid-Atlantic region, but big changes are on the way this weekend and the change to noticeably cooler conditions may not be just an “in-and-out” affair. Strong upper-level ridging across the eastern US and Canada will give way to an upper-level trough of low pressure this weekend that will tend to hang around through much of October ensuring additional cold air outbreaks. This initial blast of much cooler air into the east will follow an early weekend strong cold frontal passage and Sunday promises to be the coolest day so far this fall season in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. In addition to the cool down, winds will become an important factor by Sunday as the overall pressure gradient tightens across the northeastern states as Tropical Storm Philippe merges with the initial incoming upper-level trough system.

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7:00 AM | *Much cooler air mass headed this way for the weekend and early part of next week*

Paul Dorian

High pressure remains in control for the next couple of days in the Tennessee Valley generating above-normal temperatures and plenty of sunshine. A strong cold front arrives at the end of the week and it’ll result in a much cooler weekend and early part of next week. Temperatures will climb to the mid-80’s today, but may be confined to near 65 degrees for highs by the time we get to the upcoming weekend.

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