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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: HSV

***On-going stratospheric warming event takes it to a new level…an active weather pattern with multiple threats to monitor***

Paul Dorian

A northern hemisphere stratospheric warming event that began during the latter part of November will rise to new levels within the next ten days or so and this could have important ramifications on temperatures across the central and eastern US from later January into February. Temperatures at the stratospheric level of 10 millibars will climb dramatically over the next ten days or so from about -70 degrees (Celsius) to about -25 degrees (Celsius) as warming aloft intensifies over the polar region of the northern hemisphere. The “polar vortex” that typically resides near or over the North Pole during this time of year will become displaced and “stretched” in coming days and this could unleash some high latitude cold air masses into the middle latitudes by the time we get into later January and February. In the near term, the weather pattern will be quite active across the eastern states with multiple systems to monitor during the next couple of weeks and temperatures will return to more seasonal levels.

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7:00 AM | *Dry and cool at mid-week*

Paul Dorian

A large-scale upper-level low is spawning a couple of low pressure systems that will impact the region from tonight into Friday. Initially, it’ll be mild enough for rain showers, but as slightly colder moves in there can be some snow shower activity by tomorrow night and into the day on Friday.

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7:00 AM | **A powerful storm system forms this weekend over the Gulf of Mexico and then pushes northward along the eastern seaboard**

Paul Dorian

High pressure will be in control of the weather for another day with moderately cool and dry conditions expected. A powerful storm system will develop this weekend over the Gulf of Mexico and push northward along the eastern seaboard from later Sunday into Monday. As a result, the chance for showers will increase here on Saturday and that threat will last into the day on Sunday as well.

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*****Powerful storm system to impact the Gulf/eastern states Sunday into Monday…torrential rain, strong and potentially damaging wind gusts…cold air on back end*****

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will slide into the central Gulf of Mexico region by the early part of the weekend and an intensification process will begin there that will soon result in a powerhouse storm system. The intensifying storm system will impact the Florida Peninsula and other parts of the Southeast US on Saturday night and Sunday and then it pushes northward producing rain and wind throughout the eastern states from Sunday into Monday. The rain will be heavy all along the path of the storm and winds are very likely to reach damaging levels; especially, along coastal sections where 60+ mph gusts are possible...power outages are on the table up and down the coast. There will be no cold air around initially in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US when the storm hits; however, cold air will pour in from the northwest on Monday night and Tuesday raising the chance for a transition to some accumulating snow on the back end; especially, in “lake-effect” locations just downstream of Lakes Erie and Huron.

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7:00 AM | *Next threat of rain for us comes during the second half of the weekend*

Paul Dorian

High pressure will be in control of the weather for another few days with moderately cool and dry conditions expected. High temperatures will generally be in the range of the upper 50’s to 60 degrees and overnight lows down in the 30’s. The next shower threat in the Tennessee Valley on Sunday at which time strong low pressure is likely to pull out of the Gulf of Mexico region and head north along the eastern seaboard.

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11:50 AM | ***Signs continue to point to a powerhouse storm system that will have wide-ranging impacts this weekend and early next week from the Gulf of Mexico to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US***

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will slide across the southwestern states over the next couple of days and produce some significant snowfall in the higher elevations of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. By the early part Saturday, this system will have moved to the central Gulf of Mexico where intensification will begin to take place. By Saturday night and early Sunday, tropical storm-like conditions will develop across Florida including heavy rainfall and strong winds and other sections of the southeast US as well.

On Sunday, this powerful low pressure system will push northward up along the Atlantic seaboard and heavy rain and strong winds will likely develop in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US later Sunday and continue into the day on Monday. Cold air will be lacking in the northeastern states - at least initially – when the storm is likely to get underway so rain will be the dominate precipitation type at the start. However, a powerful storm system like this sitting near the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US coastline can certainly draw in enough cold air for a changeover to snow from later Monday into Tuesday; primarily, across higher elevation, inland locations from upstate New York to northern New England.

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