Tropical Storm Helene will intensify rapidly as it moves north-to-northeast during the next 24 hours over the very warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system should make landfall early tomorrow night in the “Big Bend” region of Florida’s Gulf coast….likely as a “major” category 3 classification and even attainment of “category 4” is on the table. Outer bands of showers and thunderstorms associated with Helene will spread northward into the region on Thursday; especially, in areas to the east of I-65. The center of the hurricane is likely to pass by to our east on Thursday night and Friday moving northward through the state of Georgia and then into South Carolina.
Read More
A strong tropical wave continues to churn over the warm waters of the western Caribbean Sea and it is likely to threaten Florida’s Gulf coast as a “major” hurricane by late Thursday. This system should attain named tropical storm status shortly (minimum winds of 39 mph) and then it should take a track in between the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the western tip of Cuba as it heads to the southern Gulf of Mexico. Intensification will then continue as it heads on a general northward track over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf and it could climb to “major” hurricane classification (i.e., category 3 or higher) before a likely landfall late Thursday somewhere near Florida’s “Big Bend” Gulf coast region.
After landfall, the remnants of the hurricane will push in a general northward direction through Georgia and South Carolina producing powerful wind gusts and significant rainfall along the way. At this point, the tropical system will become increasingly influenced by very strong “blocking” high pressure to the north and an upper-level trough of low pressure dropping southeastward into the south-central states. In fact, the tropical low may “rotate around” this incoming upper-level trough of low pressure for a brief time in a pattern known to meteorologists as the “Fujiwhara effect” before it ultimately gets absorbed by the upper-level low..
Read More
A strong tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is likely to threaten Florida’s Gulf coast as a hurricane on Thursday...potentially as a “major” hurricane of category 3 classification or higher. A significant change to the overall weather pattern in the Atlantic Basin is now underway and is much more conducive to the formation and intensification of tropical systems. This change is the result of a re-positioning of a tropical disturbance known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and it is leading to enhanced upward motion over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. This more favorable pattern for tropical cyclone activity will likely last well into the month of October.
Read More
A strong tropical wave has developed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the past day or so and it is likely to threaten Florida’s Gulf coast as a hurricane later in the week...potentially a “major” hurricane of category 3 classification or higher. A significant change to the overall large-scale weather pattern in the Atlantic Basin is now underway and it is much more conducive to the formation and intensification of tropical systems. This change is the result of a re-positioning of a tropical disturbance known as the “Madden-Julian Oscillation” and it is leading to enhanced upward motion over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. This more favorable weather pattern for tropical cyclone activity will likely last well into the month of October. In the near-term, all residents from New Orleans to Tampa should continue to monitor this current threat closely over the next couple of days.
Read More
All eyes on the tropical scene this week as a tropical storm is very likely to pull out of the Caribbean Sea and move over the Gulf of Mexico. It is too early to say the direction this system will take, but any potential impact here would be during the second half of the week so stay tuned.
Read More
The overall pattern for the next few days will result in mainly rain-free conditions to go along with very warm temperatures and afternoon highs near the 90-degree mark. High pressure will be in control of the weather and there can be some late night fog given the expected combination of mainly clear skies and calm conditions.
Read More
The atmosphere is about to undergo a significant change over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico which will result in enhanced upward motion in that part of the Atlantic Basin and this, in turn, increases the chance for the development of a hurricane later next week. The change in the atmosphere is largely the result of the re-positioning of a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward along the tropics on a regular basis. This undergoing pattern change with enhanced upward motion in the Atlantic Basin may, in fact, result in additional tropical activity that takes us passed this initial threat and well into the month of October.
Read More
The overall pattern for the next few days will result in mainly rain-free conditions to go along with very warm temperatures and afternoon highs near the 90-degree mark. High pressure will be in control of the weather around here and there can be some late night fog given the expected combination of mainly clear skies and calm conditions.
Read More
Quiet weather will continue today across the Tennessee Valley and for much of the remainder of the week as well. High pressure remains in control of the weather and there will be a warming trend which will bring temperatures back to near the 90-degree mark for afternoon highs on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
Read More
The Atlantic Basin tropical season became more active during the past couple of weeks after a relatively quiet stretch since mid-August and it looks like the increased action will persist into October. In fact, the evolving overall weather pattern has a chance to produce a serious tropical threat in about 7 to 10 days with the likely region of interest for initial formation and intensification extending from the Caribbean Sea to the Gulf of Mexico. The movement of a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward around the global tropics will create a change in the atmosphere that will lead to enhanced upward motion later next week over the still very warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. This pattern change will enhance the chances for tropical storm formation and intensification in this part of the Atlantic Basin. All residents across the Gulf and US east coasts should keep an eye on any tropical storm formation next week as the potential for a powerful storm system is quite high.
Read More
