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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: HSV

***An update on Tropical Storm Erin...the “curve away from the east coast” scenario still holds in general, but closely monitoring as nothing is written in stone this far out***

Paul Dorian

The intensity of Tropical Storm Erin has been relatively unchanged during the past 24 hours maintaining maximum sustained winds of around 45 mph as it churns to the west across the tropical Atlantic. There is not likely to be much intensification over the next 24 hours or so as it continues to deal with a dry air mass and moves over only modestly warm waters. Later this week, TS Erin will push over increasingly warm water in the western Atlantic Ocean and this will very likely result in intensification to category 1 hurricane status...the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic Basin tropical season.

Over the weekend, overall environmental conditions will become more favorable for intensification as it moves over very warm water and this can result in Erin attaining “major” hurricane status of category 3 (or higher). It is at this time that the overall flow aloft should allow for Erin to begin a curve to the north over the western Atlantic Ocean and then ultimately to the northeast…likely resulting in it not reaching the US east coast. However, there are several days to go and this system needs to be closely monitored as nothing is written in stone this far out.

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6:00 Am | *Moderately warm weather conditions continue across northern Alabama*

Paul Dorian

The overall weather pattern remains moderately warm for the southeastern states with an upper-level trough axis situated over the Mississippi River Valley and this will allow for some weak shortwaves to push eastward into this area. Temperatures are likely to peak in the upper 80’s each of the next few days and then surpass the 90-degree mark once again by the early part of next week.

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**It’s August and the tropics heat up right on schedule across the Atlantic Basin...next few weeks looking active**

Paul Dorian

The Atlantic Basin tropical season typically reaches a peak around the middle of September and the month of August usually features a steady ramp up in overall activity. Indeed, adhering to the climatological theme, tropical activity has picked up in the Atlantic Basin right on schedule once we flipped the calendar from July to August, and it is featuring multiple systems. A teleconnection index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO is providing support to the idea that the next few weeks will remain quite active in the Atlantic Basin.

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