Tropical Storm Dorian has increased slightly in intensity over the past 24 hours and it is now headed towards Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The overall scituation is looking more ominous as the storm looks likely it'll avoid much interaction with Hispaniola and it has effectively battled the dry air over the Caribbean. Once it passes by the Caribbean islands, it'll move over very warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic and intensification to hurricane status is quite likely. By the weekend, we could very well be dealing with a cat 1 or 2 hurricane closing in on the east coast of Florida, but all residents from the Carolinas to Florida should stay on guard.
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Tropical Storm Dorian has been relatively stable over the past 24 hours in terms of intensity and it moved directly over the center of St. Lucia earlier today. The track of the tropical storm will likely bring it right near the area between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola over the next day or two and it will encounter some dry air along the way. After an encounter with these two Caribbean islands, whatever remains of TS Dorian will likely push to the Bahamas later this week and then ultimately to Florida during the upcoming holiday weekend.
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Tropical Storm Dorian has held steady in the overnight hours in terms of intensity as it continues to move on a west-to-northwest track. The latest max sustained winds have been measured at 50 mph and the system will encounter some dry air over the Caribbean over the next couple of days. The current track will take Dorian to near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later in the week and an encounter with rugged terrain could weaken the tropical system. However, once TS Dorian passes by those islands, it is likely to head on a track to the northwest and this will take it to the Bahamas and perhaps ultimately to Florida over the upcoming holiday weekend.
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After a quiet start to the month in terms of Atlantic Basin tropical activity, the last week of August is beginning with one tropical system over the western Atlantic Ocean and a tropical storm nearing the Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Dorian is fast approaching the Windward Islands and it could become a hurricane once over the warm waters of the eastern Caribbean. There is currently some dry air over the Caribbean Sea out ahead of Tropical Storm Dorian which could limit its intensification prospects later in the week and its ultimate track will be quite crucial. A track over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola Island, for example, would likely weaken the system, but that is not a certainty at this point. Finally, the eventual path and intensification of the initial tropical system over the western Atlantic could, in turn, have an impact on TS Dorian depending on its movement and development in coming days.
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An upper-level trough has set up shop to our west and this has aided in pushing more moisture into our area and the result is likely to be more in the way of scattered PM showers and thunderstorms. In fact, the chances for rain will remain during the next couple of days as we stay quite warm in central Florida. On the tropical scene, a tropical system off the east coast will continue to push to the northeast over the next couple days and it could intensify into tropical storm status. Tropical Storm ‘Dorian’ has picked up slightly in intensity during the past 24 hours as it closes in on the Windward Islands and eastern Caribbean. Its maximum sustained winds are now up to 60 mph with movement to the west at 14 mph.
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A refreshing air mass for this time of year has arrived and the cold front that ushered in this change it is only slowing grinding its way through the region. As a result, occasional showers will continue this afternoon in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and some of the rain can come down hard at times. There can also be an embedded thunderstorm or two along the frontal boundary zone; primarily, to the south of the PA/MD border.
On the tropical scene, low pressure just east of the Upper Florida Keys at mid-day will slowly drift west over the next day or so which will move it over the Florida Peninsula and this should limit development. After that, this tropical system should push back to the northeast and over the western Atlantic where sea surface temperatures are running at warmer-than-normal levels. Consequently, this system should intensify later in the weekend and into the early part of next week - perhaps becoming the next named tropical storm or even a hurricane.
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On the tropical scene, low pressure near the Bahamas this morning will meander off the eastern seaboard over the next couple of days. Given the warm waters in that part of the western Atlantic Ocean, tropical storm formation is on the table by early next week and it would be named 'Dorian'.
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There is a refreshing air mass headed our way for this weekend and there are signs that there could be a repeat performance for next (Labor Day) weekend as well with both air masses backed up by strong high pressure to the north and west. The transition from today’s warmth and high humidity to below-normal temperatures will likely come with one more round of heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms as the cold from arrives late this evening. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue into Friday as the front grinds its way through the region, but late tomorrow and much of the weekend will feature drier weather and comfortable temperatures and humidity levels.
On the tropical scene, low pressure will meander off the eastern seaboard over the next several days and given the warm waters in that part of the western Atlantic, tropical storm formation is not out of the question. Later next week or during the Labor Day weekend, there are signs for some potential activity over the Gulf of Mexico where sea surface temperatures are quite warm as well.
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The tropical scene in the Atlantic Basin has picked up somewhat in activity in recent days with the formation of a weak tropical storm (Chantal) out over the open waters of the North Atlantic. In addition, there is an area of low pressure near the Bahamas that has to be monitored in coming days as it will meander over some very warm ocean waters of the western Atlantic.
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There is a much cooler air mass headed this way for Friday, Saturday and Sunday and it’ll be an active stretch of weather in the Mid-Atlantic as we make that transition from today’s heat and humidity to the weekend comfort. There is a threat for strong-to-severe thunderstorms later today and tonight in the Mid-Atlantic region and northeast US as a surface low pressure trough will combine with high humidity and upper-level energy to destabilize the atmosphere later in the day. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue from Thursday/Thursday night into Friday as a strong cool front only slowly grinds its way through the region. Elsewhere, a minimal tropical storm (Chantal) has formed out over the open Atlantic Ocean and is no threat to the US; however, another system now near the Bahamas will have to be closely monitored in the coming week or so.
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