The tropical system located over the Bahamas late last week has reached hurricane status (named Humberto) and it is likely to push slowly away from the US east coast in coming days. Isolated showers on the periphery of Hurricane Humberto will move south and southeast along coastal sections during the morning and mid-day hours. Another tropical system in the Atlantic is moving on a NW track and this should bring it to the northeast of the Caribbean Sea in several days with some intensification quite likely.
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Here we go again…another slow moving tropical system will impact the Bahamas and Florida over the next couple of days in what is a very active looking tropical scene. There are numerous systems of interest right now across the Atlantic Basin which is not too unusual given the time of year which is the climatological peak period of the tropical season. In addition to the system over the Bahamas, there is a batch of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico that may organize in coming days and two other disturbances in the eastern Atlantic. Furthermore, multiple systems over the continent of Africa – the breeding grounds for the Atlantic Basin – assure us that it’ll remain active as we progress through the month of September.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical scene remains quite active today with multiple systems to monitor. One system over the Bahamas this morning is likely to strengthen as it heads slowly towards Florida over the next couple of days and a batch of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico may organize as it moves westward. The tropical wave near the Bahamas will generate locally heavy rainfall for Florida and gusty winds as it heads in our direction. In addition, two tropical waves now exist in the eastern Atlantic Ocean and the front running system will likely push into the eastern Caribbean Sea in several days and will have to be closely watched.
One final note, this happens to be Friday the 13th and only about 1% of full moons fall on a Friday the 13th. This one is even rarer as it is occurring near apogee, the farthest point in the moon's orbit. This hasn't happened since 1832 and won't happen again for more than 500 years.
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A large ridge of high pressure will interact with an approaching tropical wave to produce lots of moisture in the area along with a persistent E-NE flow of air that will continue through the upcoming weekend. This flow will keep high temperatures somewhat limited in coming days to the mid or upper 80’s across the region and will likely generate rip currents at the beaches. In addition, as the tropical disturbance slowly work its way across the Florida Straits and southern Florida over the next few days on its way to the Gulf of Mexico there will be an enhanced threat of showers and thunderstorms. Another tropical disturbance is located in the eastern Atlantic and it may become a threat for the Bahamas and Florida in about a week to ten days or so.
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A large ridge of high pressure extending from Bermuda to the Appalachians will keep a persistent E-NE flow of air in central Florida for the remainder of the week. This flow will keep high temperatures somewhat limited in coming days to the middle 80’s in general across the region. On the tropical scene, there are three different waves lined up in the Atlantic right now as we arrive at the climatological peak of the tropical season. The first system should head to the Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend and will have to be monitored, the second wave has little chance of survival, and the third wave may very well become an important issue for the SE US/Gulf of Mexico region in about ten days or so...stay tuned.
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A subtropical ridge of high pressure will lift north early this week and combine with high pressure off the NE US coastline providing us with relatively calm weather as we begin the new work week. The overall flow of air will begin from a southerly direction this week and boost temperatures in the region, but and onshore flow will form later in the week and highs will likely be confined to the mid-to-upper 80’s.
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An approaching upper-level trough of low pressure now crossing the Great Lakes will cause Hurricane Dorian to accelerate to the northeast later today and well to the east of the Mid-Atlantic region. Our weather will continue to settle down today with less wind than yesterday, but it’ll quite hot with highs in the low-to-mid 90’s.
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Hurricane Dorian has regained some strength in the overnight hours and has been re-classified as a “major” category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds at 115 mph. It is moving slowly to the NNE at 8 mph and is currently just off the coast of South Carolina. There will be a major impact over the next 24 hours by Hurricane Dorian in the coastal Carolinas in places like Charleston, South Carolina and Wilmington and the Outer Banks in North Carolina. By mid-day Friday, Hurricane Dorian will be near the Outer Banks of North Carolina and it will become increasingly influenced by an advancing upper-level trough over the Great Lakes. As a result, Hurricane Dorian will accelerate to the northeast on Friday and pass well to the east of the Mid-Atlantic, but some impacts are likely that will in many ways resemble a “nor’easter” with the greatest impacts along coastal sections. Looking ahead, by no means does it look like the Atlantic Basin tropical season will slow down with the departure of Hurricane Dorian as numerous tropical waves are lining up over the continent of Africa.
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Finally…a quieter day across east-central Florida with the departure of Hurricane Dorian. Hurricane Dorian has regained enough strength in the overnight hours to be re-classified as a "major" category 3 storm as it nears the South Carolina coastline. Hurricane Dorian will pound the coastal Carolinas today and then become influenced by an advancing trough of low pressure over the Great Lakes on Friday. This will cause the storm to accelerate to the northeast and well to the east of the Mid-Atlantic region as we close out the week.
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Hurricane Dorian remains a category 2 storm at midday and it has picked up a bit of forward speed now moving NNW at 9 mph with 105 mph maximum sustained winds and a central pressure of 964 millibars. Gusty squalls are rotating around Hurricane Dorian and impacting much of the coastal region in northeastern Florida as well as coastal sections of Georgia, South and North Carolina. Hurricane Dorian is likely to at least maintain its category 2 strength as it moves closer to the Carolina coastline and it very well could undergo some intensification as it heads over warmer waters of the Gulf Stream and leaves “upwelling-induced” cooler water behind. By early Friday, Hurricane Dorian will move to a position over the Outer Banks (NC) and will become increasingly influenced by an advancing trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere. This upper-level feature will cause it to accelerate to the northeast passing well to the east of the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday, but important impacts are still on the table for coastal sections.
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