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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information
Filtering by Category: Medium Range Outlooks
Winter will not go away easily. After another cold, dry day on Friday, attention will turn to the next system that could bring some snow to parts of the Mid-Atlantic region between tomorrow night and early Sunday morning. Beyond that, there will be some modifications in temperatures during the early part of next week, but then another significantly colder-than-normal air mass reaches us by the middle of next week.
Read MoreAll signs continue to point to a major storm roaring up the east coast Monday night and Tuesday and it should result in a substantial snowfall for the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Boston. The “sweet spot” for heaviest snowfall amounts could end up being just to the north and west of Route I-95 where more than a foot can fall in the suburbs of the big cities. Mixing with rain or ice can become an issue to the areas just south and east of Route I-95 and there will be a sharp drop off in snowfall totals from that narrow zone to the coastline, but odds favor primarily snow in and to the north and west of the big cities. In addition to the heavy precipitation, winds will become a problem with this powerful coastal storm and power outages are even a possibility in areas with heavy, wet snow accumulations and strong wind gusts. While the brunt of the storm will be Monday night and Tuesday morning in terms of heaviest snow, there will be enough instability in the upper-levels of the atmosphere that some “wrap around” snow is quite likely later Tuesday and Wednesday that can add some accumulations to the totals. It stays very cold following the storm on Wednesday and Thursday as well and, believe it or not, there could be another threat of snow for next weekend.
Read MoreAll signs continue to point to a major storm along the Mid-Atlantic coastline by early Tuesday and it could result in a substantial snowfall for parts the I-95 corridor. This storm looks like it will have the potential to produce 1-2 feet of snow, but exactly where that heaviest snowfall sets up is still in question as the storm track could be anywhere from just inland to just off the Mid-Atlantic coastline - and this difference can be crucial to the I-95 corridor. The end result is that there is likely to be a sharp snow accumulation gradient with this storm – perhaps setting up from right along Route I-95 to the coast. By the way, the last great snowstorm during the month of March for the Mid-Atlantic region was the so-called "Storm of the Century" in March 1993.
Read MoreThe next week or so could actually end up being the worst stretch of winter all season long for parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. An Arctic front will slowly press through the region late tonight and Friday as low pressure rides along the boundary zone likely producing accumulating snow all the way down into the DC metro region. Rain will develop at the onset during the overnight hours in the DC, Philly, NYC corridor, but then as colder air filters in from the north, there will be a changeover to snow from north-to-south. Snow can continue into the mid-day hours on Friday in the I-95 corridor and there can be a few additional snow showers during the afternoon - perhaps even a heavier snow squall. Arctic air will completely overtake the region tomorrow night and punish us throughout the upcoming weekend with temperatures some 15-20 degrees below normal for this time of year. Yet another storm threatens the I-95 corridor in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame and it could intensify rapidly near the coastline with lots of cold air in place – in other words, big potential.
Read MoreThere are three different low pressure systems to monitor for the period extending from tomorrow night into the middle part of next week and accumulating snow is certainly on the table for the I-95 strip from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, but perhaps the biggest story of all could be the Arctic blast that is coming for the weekend. “Air trajectory” maps show that the air coming into the Mid-Atlantic region for the weekend has its origins in the Canadian Arctic where they have experienced some of the coldest March weather in decades. An Arctic front will slide through the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday – accompanied by strengthening low pressure – and its passage will usher in air that will likely be some 15-20 degrees below normal for this time of year.
The low pressure that forms along this Arctic frontal boundary zone will generate rain at first in the Mid-Atlantic region, but then as colder air filters in from the north, a changeover to snow is likely early Friday and there can be some grassy accumulations in much of the I-95 corridor. After Arctic cold air pours into the area on Friday night and Saturday, the next storm system will be suppressed well to the south - sparing the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor of any snow. A third system is likely to develop in the Mid-Atlantic region in the late Monday night or Tuesday time frame and it could intensify rapidly near the coastline with lots of cold air to in place.
Read MoreWinter is not quite over yet and there are three threats to monitor in the Mid-Atlantic region for the period from Thursday night through early next week The first wave of low pressure is likely to arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region late Thursday night with only marginally cold air in place, but it’ll actually turn colder during this event. As a result, this late week system is liable to result in a “rain changing to snow” scenario and some grassy snow accumulations are possible in the northern and western suburbs of DC, Philly and NYC. A second and stronger system will take a southern route this weekend and it’ll arrive in the eastern US in the Saturday night/Sunday time frame. This system should have plenty of cold air to work with in the I-95 corridor and snow would likely be the dominant precipitation type; however, it may be suppressed so far to the south that much of the I-95 corridor may escape with little, if any, snowfall. Finally, there is a chance that a third system arrives in the Mid-Atlantic region in the late Monday/Tuesday time period of next week and there should be enough cold air in place for the possibility of snow.
Read More“It ain’t over till it’s over”. Winter is not over yet and there may be at least a couple of chances for accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region later this week and during the upcoming weekend. One of the keys to this unfolding scenario will be a frontal boundary zone that is likely to set up to the south of the Mid-Atlantic region and this will act as a pathway for low pressure systems to ride along. At the same time, strong Arctic high pressure will set up to our north and northwest and this potential combination could lead to an impressive comeback for winter.
Read MoreThe overall weather pattern for the first couple weeks of March certainly looks colder than current conditions in the Northeast US which isn’t saying much as we’ve been experiencing record-breaking warmth. Nonetheless, there are signs for multiple cold air outbreaks into the Northeast US during the first part of March and these outbreaks will likely be accompanied by “clipper” low pressure systems. “Clippers” are officially known in the meteorological community as “Alberta Clippers” and defined as follows: “a fast moving low pressure system that moves southeast out of Canadian Province of Alberta (southwest Canada) through the Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes region usually during the winter”. This low pressure area is usually accompanied by light snow, strong winds, and colder temperatures. Another variation of the same system is sometimes called a "Saskatchewan Screamer". We better get used to the term "clipper" around here in the Northeast US because it looks like several of them will head this way during the first ten days or so of March.
Read MoreThe news does not get any better for California. A monster storm will impact the state from late tonight into early Saturday and southern California will take the biggest hit from this system. In fact, this could turn out to be one of the worst storms in years for the southern part of the state with not just the heavy rain, but also wind and possible power outages. In addition, intense rainfall, especially over areas with steep terrain or with recent burn scars, may lead to rapid runoff; resulting in flash flooding and/or mudslides/debris flows. By early next week, yet another Pacific Ocean storm will head towards the state and this one is likely to concentrate its wrath on the northern part of California raising new concerns for the Oroville Dam.
Read MoreOne winter storm is now long gone, but the overall weather pattern remains quite active for the Northeast US and there will be lots to monitor over the next week or so. First, a clipper system dropping southeast from Canada will bring some light snow to the northern Mid-Atlantic region late tonight and early Saturday. Second, after primarily rain on Sunday in the Mid-Atlantic, a powerful cold front will whip through the region Sunday night and winds should intensify to quite strong - and potentially damaging levels - on Sunday night and Monday. Finally, there are some early signals for a storm to form near the east coast later next week which has a lot of potential, but also many questions still to iron out.
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